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Australia vs Tonga Tips & Preview - Kangaroos to kick off Pacific Championships with big win

ryan-tucker
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Last updated: 16 Oct 2024
Ryan Tucker 16 Oct 2024
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  • Australia Kangaroos vs Tonga XIII expert predictions for Friday’s Pacific Championships game
  • Australia faces Tonga with a lineup hit by key injuries
  • Kangaroos still likely to cover a -16.5 point line
  • Watch for key players like Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Daniel Tupou
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Australia Kangaroos vs Tonga XIII
Kangaroos to win big (Getty)

Australia Kangaroos vs Tonga Predictions


Tonga have named a strong lineup, while the Kangaroos have had to deal with a host of injuries to their first choice players. Australia's depth should still be evident with the Kangaroos backed to cover a -16.5 line.
  • Australia Kangaroos vs Tonga Predictions
  • Head to Head 
  • Australia Form Analysis
  • Australia Team News
  • Australia Kangaroos Team List
  • Tonga Form
  • Tonga Team News
  • Tonga Team List

  • 9 of the last 10 Australian victories have been by 18 points or more.
  • Mitch Moses averaged 470 Kick Metres per game in 2024, 4th most in the NRL
  • Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow scored 2 tries in the 2023 Pacific Championships as well as 4 tries for QLD in State of Origin this year. 
  • Daniel Tupou scored 21 tries this season, has scored the most tries for Tonga and led the NRL in Linebreaks in 2024 with 31.

Head to Head 


Australia and Tonga have met only twice on the international stage with both teams taking a win each. 

The first game in 2018 was a 34-16 win for Australia and went over the game total and had a 13+ win margin. The 2019 matchup saw Tonga take the victory 16-12 with the total going under and the margin staying between 1-12 points.

Australia Form Analysis


Australia come into the Pacific Championships as the number 1 ranked team in the world ahead of New Zealand, England and Samoa following their victory in the 2021 World Cup (played in 2022). 

The Aussies claimed the win with a 30-10 drubbing of Samoa with only five players from that winning team featuring in the squad named for this matchup.

In the 2023 Pacific Championships, Australia defeated Samoa 38-12 in week 1 and New Zealand 36-18 in week 2 to reach the final which they lost in dramatic fashion 30-0 to the Kiwis. 

Only eight players from that 19-man matchday squad feature in the lineup this weekend.

Australia Team News


Dylan Edwards has replaced former captain James Tedesco as the Kangaroos fullback. With Cam Munster ruled out with injury, Cowboys five-eighth Tom Dearden steps into the vacant six jumper following a good hitout for his club and the Queensland Maroons this year. 

Mitch Moses makes his Kangaroos debut in the seven jumper with Nathan Cleary also out injured. Matt Burton is the half/backline utility with Ben Hunt in the reserves. 

The Kangaroos have opted for a mobile forward pack naming Pat Carrigan at frontrow with Crichton and Murray in the backline alongside premiership winner Isaah Yeo at lock as the new captain. 

Panther Liam Martin is out injured, replaced in the squad by Hudson Young as he is named on the bench for this game. Mitch Barnett completes his standout season by also being named to make his Kangaroos debut off the bench.

Australia Kangaroos Team List


1. Dylan Edwards
2. Xavier Coates
3. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
4. Tom Trbojevic
5. Zac Lomax
6. Tom Dearden
7. Mitch Moses
8. Patrick Carrigan
9. Harry Grant
10. Lindsay Collins
11. Angus Crichton
12. Cameron Murray 
13. Isaah Yeo (c)

Interchange
14. Matt Burton
15. Mitchell Barnett
16. Reuben Cotter
17. Hudson Young

Reserves
18. Ben Hunt
19. Lindsay Smith
20. Reece Robson
21. Bradman Best

Tonga Form


Tonga are currently ranked fifth in the world rankings behind Australia, New Zealand, England and Samoa following their quarter final exit in the 2021 World Cup (played in 2022). 

Tonga finished first in their group with wins over PNG, Cook Islands and Wales before being bundled out of the tournament in a 20-18 loss to Samoa in Warrington. 

Tonga and England played in a three-match series in 2023 with England winning all three games.

Tonga Team News


Lehi Hopoate will make his international debut following a stellar season as the backup fullback for the Manly Sea Eagles. 

The Tongans have a very formidable backline with Roosters' try-scoring record holder and most capped Tongan Daniel Tupou and Sharks gun Sione Katoa on the wings with premiership winner Paul Alamoti and big Moses Suli in the centres.

Isaiya Katoa has won the halfback jumper ahead of Tolu Koula with Tui Lolohea in the familiar five-eighth role. Siliva Havili has been named to start at hooker but could be a last minute switch with Soni Luke from the bench. 

Felise Kaufusi will start in the front row with Sitili Tupouniua, Taniela Paseka and Keaon Koloamatangi all set to rotate through the forward line in this game.

Tonga Team List


1. Lehi Hopoate
2. Daniel Tupou
3. Moses Suli
4. Paul Alamoti
5. Sione Katoa
6. Tui Lolohea
7. Isaiya Katoa
8. Addin Fonua-Blake (c)
9. Siliva Havili
10. Felise Kaufusi
11. Haumole Olakau’atu
12. Eli Katoa
13. Jason Taumalolo

Interchange
14. Soni Luke
15. Sitili Tupouniua
16. Taniela Paseka
17. Keaon Koloamatangi

Reserves
18. Tolu Koula
19. Siua Wong
20. Isaiah Iongi
21. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki

Verdict

Australia have a history of racking up big wins and it shouldn't be any different here. Expect a couple of different tryscorers.

Best Bet1: Australia -16.5 Line @9/10 at Betgoodwin - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Anytime Tryscorer @20/21 at bet365 - 1 Unit
Best Bet3: Daniel Tupou Anytime Tryscorer @28/17 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Harry Grant Anytime Tryscorer @2/1 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Australia -16.5
Line
@9/10 - 2 Units
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Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
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Daniel Tupou
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Harry Grant
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18 Oct 2024

Australia v Tonga