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New Zealand vs Samoa Tips & Preview - Kiwis out for revenge in Pacific Championships

Last updated: 19 Oct 2023
Jeremy Darke 19 Oct 2023
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  • Kiwis vs Toa Samoa predictions for Saturday’s NRL game
  • The Kiwis have never lost to Samoa in 4 matches
  • What will the margin be in the end to the Kiwis?
James Fisher-Harris, Kiwis
James Fisher-Harris tipped as a surprise try scorer. (Getty Images)
  • New Zealand vs Samoa Preview
  • Head to Head 
  • New Zealand Form
  • New Zealand Team News
  • New Zealand Team List
  • Samoa Form
  • Samoa Team News
  • Samoa Team List

New Zealand vs Samoa Preview

The second weekend of the Pacific Championship will kick off at Eden Park in Auckland, with the Kiwis going up against Toa Samoa.

This is once again setting up to be a lopsided affair as the Kiwis start as 17.5-point favourites. I am afraid for the Samoans as New Zealand will be out for blood in an attempt to seek revenge from their World Cup semifinal loss and they are the first victim to stand in the way.

The Kiwis have plenty of strike and will be out to do one better than the Aussies, so I am backing them to cover the 17.5-point line and to score over 30.5 points in the match.

The Samoans allowed 3 tries to Australian forwards starting off with Payne Haas scoring the first try of the match. I am going to back newly-appointed captain James Fisher-Harris for a rare try in this match and even take the juicy 34.0 odds for the first try.

  • New Zealand have beaten Samoa by 20 points or more in 3 of their 4 matches.
  • New Zealand have scored over 30 points in 3 of their 4 matches against Samoa.
  • Both starting front row forwards scored a try for Australia against Samoa.
  • 3 of the first 4 tries by Australia against Samoa were by forwards.

Head to Head 

New Zealand have won all four matches against Samoa. They last met in 2017 with the Kiwis winning 38-8.

New Zealand Form

New Zealand will play their first game of the Pacific Championships and have not played together since their gruelling 16-14 defeat against Australia in the semifinals of the World Cup last November.

The Kiwis pushed the Aussies to their limit in the semi and could have very well ended up in the final and won it all if the bounce of the ball just fell their way. 

New Zealand Team News

James Fisher-Harris is set to lead the Kiwis onto the field as their captain, taking over the role after Jesse Bromwich's retirement from international play.

Joining Fisher-Harris in the front row is his trusted partner in the scrum, Moses Leota. Together, they are key components of a formidable forward pack, which also features Joe Tapine and Nelson Asofa-Solomona.

Fa'amanu Brown will start as the hooker, while Kieran Foran will be listed on the bench.

Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad will assume the role of fullback, with Joseph Manu starting in the centres.

Michael Maguire has named seven potential debutants in the squad, including Leo Thompson and Griffin Neame, who are expected to make appearances off the bench.

New Zealand Team List

1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2. Ronaldo Mulitalo
3. Matthew Timoko
4. Joseph Manu
5. Jamayne Isaako
6. Dylan Brown
7. Jahrome Hughes
8. James Fisher-Harris
9. Fa'amanu Brown
10. Moses Leota
11. Isaiah Papali’i
12. Briton Nikora
13. Joseph Tapine


14. Kieran Foran
15. Nelson Asofa-Solomona
16. Griffin Neame
17. Leo Thompson


18. Naufahu Whyte
19. Wiremu Greig
20. Danny Levi
21. Keano Kini

Samoa Form

Samoa put up a good fight in the second half against Australia last week but couldn’t recover from the 5 tries they conceded in the first half of the game, losing to the Kangaroos 38-12.

Samoa were simply too soft through the middle allowing three tries in the first half to Australian forwards and went into the break 28-6 down.

Australia also amassed just under 500 more run metres than Samoa and also won the linebreak count 8-2.

Samoa Team News

Marion Seve comes in to replace Young Tonumaipea.

Last week, the initial lineup featured Gordon Chan Kum Tong as the starter, but a last-minute change saw Ben Gardiner replacing him, and Justin Matamua was brought in as the hooker. A similar situation may occur this week, as Matamua has been named on the bench rather than being among the reserves.

Samoa Team List

1. Sua Faalago
2. Murray Taulagi
3. Izack Tago
4. Marion Seve
5. Brian To'o
6. Stephen Crichton
7. Daejarn Asi
8. Stefano Utoikamanu
9. Gordon Chan Kum Tong
10. Junior Paulo
11. Luciano Leilua
12. Connelly Lemuelu
13. Keenan Palasia


14. Spencer Leniu
15. Terrell May
16. Heilum Luki
17. Justin Matamua


18. Royce Hunt
19. Ronald Volkman
20. Greg Marzhew
21. Tommy Talau


Samoa are going to get dominated by the Kiwis and it is more of a question of how much.

New Zealand will cover the line and score over 30 points with ease on Saturday.

Samoa were soft on their tryline against Australia so James Fisher-Harris is backed for the first tryscorer and anytime tryscorer.
Best Bet1: Kiwis -17.5 Handicap Line @9/10 at bet365 - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Kiwis Over 30.5 Team Total @9/10 at Hollywood bets - 2 Units
Best Bet3: James Fisher-Harris Anytime Tryscorer @24/5 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: James Fisher-Harris First Tryscorer @33/1 at thePools - 1 Unit
Kiwis -17.5
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