State of Origin 3 tips - NSW vs Queensland. Update: NSW can complete comeback.

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Last updated: 15 Nov 2021

Freetips staff 15 Nov 2021

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Back the Blues to belt the Maroons in State of Origin 3

Josh Addo-Carr is predicted to lead the NSW Blues to State of Origin glory in Game 3 against the Queensland Maroons at ANZ Stadium in Sydney, Australia (Getty Images)

NSW vs Queensland State of Origin 3 Preview & Betting Tips Update

NSW go into State of Origin 3 as strong favourites after inflicting one of the most brutal Origin beat downs in recent history in game 2 at Optus Stadium in Perth. The Blues defeated Queensland Maroons by 32 points in Perth and a repeat performance in Sydney is not out of the question.

Will the Blues roll on to record back-to-back wins for the first time in almost 20 years or do the Maroons have one more ace up their collective sleeve?

New South Wales Form & Team News

After their crushing 32 point win over the Maroons in Perth, the bookmakers installed the Blues as 1.50 favouites heading into the decider. Despite already being heavy favourites going into Game 3 the odds have continued to tumble on the defending champions.

Nathan Cleary and the suspended Tariq Sims won’t take their respective place in the side but Mitchell Pearce – who comes into the squad for Cleary – is a more than adequate replacement while Sims position will be easily filled.

NSW winger Josh Addo-Carr scored twice in Game 2 and should get plenty of opportunities to add to his four tries in five State of Origin games. Addo-Carr has scored 10 tries in 13 games for the Melbourne Storm in the NRL this season and has 51 in 65 NRL games for the Storm.

Queensland Form & Team News

After their heroic win in Game 1 things went from bad to worse for the Maroons. If the humiliating loss to the Blues in Perth wasn’t enough, coach Kevin Walters will now have to reshuffle the line up to accommodate the loss of superstar fullback Kalyn Ponga who’ll miss the decider with a calf injury.

Ponga’s injury has seen the odds of his side pulling off an upset balloon out to 3.00 after opening at 2.60 following Game 2. Replacing the superstar fullback will be difficult, but according to Walters “there’s a list a mile long” within the Queensland camp but don’t expect a replacement to be named until the very last minute.

NSW vs Queensland Head to Head

NSW and Queensland come into this deciding third game having split the opening two games. Despite the dominance of the Maroons winning 10 of the last 13 Origin series, you have to go all the way back to NSW’s win in 2000 for a time where the victorious team won all three games in the series.

NSW vs Queensland Match Up

NSW takes huge momentum going into the deciding game in Sydney. State of Origin Game 2 was effectively over at halftime, with the additional injury to Kalyn Ponga the Maroons have a mountain to climb if they are to be competitive in this match.

A lot of responsibility will be thrust upon Corey Oates’ shoulders. After a match-defining try in Game 1 the star Bronco was almost anonymous in Perth.

Kalyn Ponga's injury for the QLD Maroons is a big blow against the NSW Blues in Game 3 of the 2019 State of Origin series (Getty Images)

State of Origin Key Statistics

NSW has scored the first try in both Origin matches in 2019.
NSW beat Queensland 38-6 in Game 2 in Perth.
NSW's Josh Addo-Carr scored two tries in Game 2.
NSW's Josh Addo-Carr has scored 4 tries in 5 State of Origin games.
NSW's Josh Addo-Carr has scored 10 tries in 13 NRL games for the Melbourne Storm (2019).

Verdict

NSW are predicted to go back-to-back in Origin for the first time since 2004/05. The Blues answered back in the strongest way possible by crushing Queensland in Game 2 and that energy should carry over into the decider.

NSW winger Josh Addo-Carr has been scoring regular tries for the Melbourne Storm, scored twice in State of Origin Game 2 and is our pick in the try scorer markets.

Best Bet: NSW -6 Handicap @ 1.91 at bet365 - 4 Units

Value Bet: Josh Addo-Carr Score & NSW Win @ 2.30 at bet365 - 3 Units

First Try Scorer Tip: Josh Addo-Carr @ 8.00 at bet365 - 1 Unit