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State of Origin Game 3 First Tryscorer Tips - Who will get the first try in Origin 3?

ryan-tucker
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Last updated: 09 Jul 2023
Ryan Tucker 09 Jul 2023
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  • State of Origin Game 3 takes place on Wednesday, July 12
  • NSW have scored the first try in a game 3 just once in the last 6 years
  • Can Val Holmes be a double first try scorer in a series for the third time in his career?
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valentine holmes origin
Valentine Holmes (Getty Images)
 

Game 3 of the 2023 State of Origin series heads to Accor Stadium, in Sydney, with the Queensland Maroons already wrapping up the series 2-0. 

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow snuck under the radar for most, scoring the first try of the 2023 series pouncing on a Cameron Munster grubber through the line. 

In Game 2 it was Hammer’s opposite centre in Val Holmes that cleaned up the scraps of a Cherry-Evans kick to the corner, getting his fingertips to the loose ball to score first.

We have dived into the record books as far back as 2017, when the last current player scored the first try in an Origin game to give our best tips for the first try scorer.

  • In the 20 games played in the last 7 years, QLD has scored the first try in 11 games to NSW’s 9 first try scorers. 
  • A centre has scored first in game 3, the last 2 years.
  • QLD have scored the first try in game three in 5 of the previous 6 years.
  • The Maroons have scored the first try in the first 2 games of the series.
  • In the last 10 years, only Valentine Holmes has been the first try scorer in 2 games of the same series. The Queenslander did it twice in 2017 and 2018, both times in game 2 & 3.

Based on these trends and their current try scoring form here are our top 3 picks for the first try scorer in State of Origin Game 3.

Valentine Holmes


Before I go any further just take this in…Val Holmes has been the first try scorer in game 3 in 4 of his last 5 series! He has also been a two-time first try scorer in two series previously where both tries were in games 2 and 3.

The Maroons’ centre has scored 13 tries for QLD with 54% of them being the first try of the game, which is quite mind blowing. What is also in his favour is that Holmes scored the first 4-pointer in his last game 3, in 2022.

Valentine Holmes should be the first bet you throw at the First Try Scorer market.

James Tedesco


If NSW are any shot of winning this game they need to score first and build and harness momentum. A lot of talk has been about the New South Welshman needing to prove that they have blue blood running through their veins, and there is no man that has more of that than James Tedesco.

The NSW captain leads from the front, he has done so the majority of career whether in a Roosters, Kangaroos or a Blues jersey. He is the man you look to for inspiration and motivation, which gives me the hunch that he will be hungry for the first four-pointer of the game.

The Blues fullback has been in try scoring form of late for the Roosters, scoring six tries in his last five games. He scored just one try earlier in the season in round 8, on the big Anzac Day stage, and it was the first try of the game against the Dragons.

Tino Fa'asuamaleaui


I know that all of the stats point towards a back scoring the first try, but this game is a dead-rubber so we need to make the excitement ourselves. I’m throwing in a Big Tino as my State of Origin Bolter for game 3.

Sometimes you have to go with your gut and mine is saying that a front-rower is going to crash over for the first one and with the Titans captain paying 41 times your money I am liking those odds.

Fa'asuamaleaui has been in great form for the Gold Coast this season and has been in electric try scoring form in his last three games scoring a meat pie in all three.
 

Verdict

Based on First Try Scorer stats Valentine Holmes should have the shortest odds, so getting him a 18.0 is a steal. James Tedesco will be looking to motivate his team from the get-go and is a real chance in the FTS market. Big Tino is a roughie, but in a dead-rubber you just have to throw one in your First Try Scorer repertoire.

Value Bet: Valentine Holmes First Try Scorer @17/1 at bet365 - 1 Unit
Value Bet: James Tedesco First Try Scorer @17/1 at Boylesports - 1 Unit
Value Bet: Tino Fa'asuamaleaui First Try Scorer @40/1 at bet365 - 1 Unit
Valentine Holmes
First Try Scorer
@17/1 - 1 Unit
Bet £10 Get £30
with bonus code NEWBONUS

Available to new customers only. Make a qualifying deposit of £5 or more and claim the offer within 30 days of registering your account to qualify for 300% of that amount in Bet Credits, up to a maximum of £30 in Bet Credits. Once released, your Bet Credits will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

Bet at bet365
James Tedesco
First Try Scorer
@17/1 - 1 Unit
Bet £10 Get £20
In free bets

New UK customers (Excluding NI) only. Mobile exclusive. Min Deposit £10. Min stake £10. Min odds Evs. Free bet applied on 1st settlement of any qualifying bet. 30 days to qualify. Free bets expire in 7 days. Cashed out/Free Bets won’t apply. Account & Payment method restrictions apply. 1 Free Bet offer per customer, household & IP Address only. 18+. T&Cs apply. **18+. Online Only. Get paid out as a winner if your team is winning by 2 goals, even if you draw or lose. 90 mins only. Applies to Singles & Multiples. T&Cs apply.

Bet at Boylesports
Tino Fa'asuamaleaui
First Try Scorer
@40/1 - 1 Unit
Bet £10 Get £30
with bonus code NEWBONUS

Available to new customers only. Make a qualifying deposit of £5 or more and claim the offer within 30 days of registering your account to qualify for 300% of that amount in Bet Credits, up to a maximum of £30 in Bet Credits. Once released, your Bet Credits will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

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12 Jul 2023

New South Wales v Queensland