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State of Origin Game 1 Predictions & Tips - Blues pack give them the edge in Game 1

jeremy-darke
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Last updated: 31 May 2023
Jeremy Darke 31 May 2023
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  • State of Origin Game 1 predictions for Wednesday's match (20:05 AEST)
  • Only 1 of the past 6 Game 1’s has gone over 36 points
  • Can QLD contain the NSW forward pack?
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State of Origin (Getty Images)

New South Wales Blues vs Queensland Maroons Predictions


The 2023 State of Origin has all the ingredients to be one of the most toughest and tight fought battles we have seen in the Origin arena in a while with both teams packing heavy duty live wires in their forward packs. 
  • New South Wales Blues vs Queensland Maroons Predictions
  • Head to Head 
  • New South Wales Blues Form
  • New South Wales Blues Team News
  • New South Wales Blues Team List
  • Queensland Maroons Form
  • Queensland Maroons Team News
  • Queensland Maroons Team List

It is just there where we see the edge going to NSW in Game 1, with the likes of Payne Haas and his troops winning the battle through the middle and getting the support from Brian To’o and the outside backs to get out of their own end, they will give their clinical attackers the territory they need to put pressure the QLD line. 

The Queenslanders will do what they do best fending off multiple raids from the Blues but in the end they will not be able to sustain the barrage of attack, thus covering the measley 2.5 points as favourites while the game total stays UNDER 36.5 points. 

We are predicting that Latrell is going to have a big Game 1 and an even bigger series and a try in the opener certainly looks likely. Also, if anyone is going to be the game changer for QLD you know it is going to be Cameron Munster, we can just picture him crossing the line in the final 10 minutes to put pressure on the NSW victory.

  • Since 2017, the Game 1 total has gone Under 36.5 points in 5 of 6 matches. 
  • Over the past 10 years only 6 of the last 30 games have been decided by 2 points or less
  • Payne Hass (prop) and Brian To’o (wing) top the NRL in Runs and Run Metres  in their respective positions.
  • Latrell Mitchell has scored 9 tries in his last 7 games for south Sydney.
  • Cameron Munster scored a try in the only Origin game played at Adelaide Oval. 


Head to Head 


The 2022 series was won 2-1 by Queensland after clinching games 1 and 3 in tightly contested matches, while being blown out by New South Wales 44-12, in Perth, in Game 2.

Queensland lead the overall series head to head 22-16 with two series being drawn.

Both teams have won Game 1 a total of three times each over the past six years. Queensland have though won three of the last four. 

QLD and NSW have played one game previously at Adelaide Oval, Game 1 of the 2020 series with the Maroons taking the victory 18-14.

New South Wales Blues Form


The Blues have nine of their 17 players all coming from top four squads which means they are in great form. Having five Panthers in the team will also help with continuity and the inclusion of former Panther Api Koroisau will no doubt make things easier on the halves.

After losing game 1 in 2022 the Blues made a statement in game 2 running in seven tries to two in a 44-12 demolition of the Maroons. 

Unfortunately their happiness was short-lived as they relinquished a 12-10 halftime lead not scoring a single second half point to lose 22-12.

New South Wales Blues Team News


Tom Trbojevic broke through his injury cloud in stunning style cementing his spot in the team with a three try performance in round 12 for Manly against Canberra. 

Incumbent Jake Trbojevic will miss game 1 with a calf injury which has opened the door for Tevita Pangai Jr to make his Origin debut.

Api Koroisau has impressed in his new found role at the Tigers pushing out Damien Cook for dummy half, whilst coach Fittler has opted for the halves connection of Jarome Luai and Nathan Cleary with 2022 Dally M winner Nicho Hynes to come off the bench.

Tyson Frizell returns to the Blues team in his first Origin game since 2020 with in form South Sydney forward Keaon Koloamatangi being ruled out with a syndesmosis injury.

New South Wales Blues Team List


1. James Tedesco
2. Josh Addo-Carr
3. Tom Trbojevic
4. Latrell Mitchell
5. Brian To'o
6. Jarome Luai
7. Nathan Cleary
8. Tevita Pangai Junior
9. Api Koroisau
10. Payne Haas
11. Tyson Frizell
12. Hudson Young
13. Isaah Yeo

Interchange

14. Junior Paulo
15. Cameron Murray
16. Liam Martin
17. Nicho Hynes

Reserves

18. Stephen Crichton
19. Stefano Utoikamanu
20. Blayke Brailey

Queensland Maroons Form


The Queenslanders will come into Origin 1 full of confidence after closing out the 2022 series in game 3 at Suncorp Stadium.

Fourteen players from the Maroons 2022 winning side have been named in the 19 man squad to take on the Blues in 2023, carrying with them the winning feeling and a victorious mentality from last year’s series. 

Coach Billy Slater has made a point of picking the most in-form player available in each position for the 2023 series. A tactic that has been scrutinised by some and called a master class by others.

Queensland Maroons Team News


In what has been the most talked about selection for the QLDers is the debut of Broncos fullback Reece Walsh, in place of 2022 game 3 Man of the Match Kalyn Ponga, who has had disrupted start to the season with concussion issues.

Slater has brought back the services of Thomas Flegler, David Fifita and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, who did not play in Queensland’s winning series last year but who have all represented the Maroons in the past.

Queensland Maroons Team List


1. Reece Walsh
2. Selwyn Cobbo
3. Valentine Holmes
4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
5. Murray Taulagi
6. Cameron Munster
7. Daly Cherry-Evans
8. Tom Flegler
9. Ben Hunt 
10. Lindsay Collins
11. Tom Gilbert 
12. David Fifita
13. Patrick Carrigan

Interchange

14. Harry Grant
15. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui
16. Reuben Cotter
17. Jai Arrow

Reserves

18. Tom Dearden
19. Christian Welch

Verdict

The NSW Blues forwards are tipped to win the battle through the middle of the park allowing the backs to pressure the QLDers in their red-zone all night, ultimately wearing them down and covering the 2.5 points as favourites. 

The Maroons will do their best to hold the Blues out which can keep the score under the 36.5 points given. Both Latrell Mitchell and Cameron Munster are in great try scoring form and will look to be the game changer for their side by crossing over for an important four-pointer.

Best Bet: Under 38.5 Points Total Points @20/21 at bet365 - 3 Units
Value Bet: NSW -2.5 Handicap Line @23/24 at Grosvenor Sports - 2 Units
Anytime Tryscorer Tip: Latrell Mitchell Anytime Tryscorer @37/20 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Anytime Tryscorer Tip: Cameron Munster Anytime Tryscorer @13/4 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
Under 38.5 Points
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