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Today's State of Origin Game 1 Tips - Predictions for Queensland vs NSW

ryan-tucker
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Last updated: 30 May 2023
Ryan Tucker 30 May 2023
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  • State of Origin Game 1 predictions for Wednesday's match (20:05 AEST)
  • Top tips and verdict on the 2023 Origin series opener
  • Predictions, first tryscorer and man of the match selections
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state of origin
James Tedesco and Daly Cherry-Evans (Getty Images)

The 2023 State of Origin has all the ingredients to be one of the most toughest and tight fought battles we have seen in the Origin arena in a while with both teams packing heavy duty live wires in their forward packs. 

The series gets underway on neutral ground at Adelaide Oval and Wednesday, May 31 and the FreeTips team have made their predictions for the opener.

Best Bet: Under 38.5 Points


Since 2017, the Game 1 total has gone Under 36.5 points in five of six matches and this one promises to be another tight series opener.

The Queenslanders will do what they do best fending off multiple raids from the Blues but in the end they will not be able to sustain the barrage of attack, thus the game going under the game total.

Value Bet: NSW -2.5


The NSW Blues forwards are tipped to win the battle through the middle of the park allowing the backs to pressure the QLDers in their red-zone all night, ultimately wearing them down and covering the 2.5 points as favourites.

First Tryscorer: Josh Addo-Carr


Josh Addo-Carr famously missed out on Freddie Fittler’s selection in 2022, having a slow start to the year following his move to the Bulldogs. 

He then went on to prove to the NSW coaching staff that they made a mistake by leading Australia with 12 tries in the World Cup, tying Valentine Holmes’ try scoring record.

The Foxx has scored 6 tries in his 7 games this season for Canterbury and will be looking to return the faith early to the Blues, being selected after playing just 1 game since round 6 this season. 

Addo-Carr is no stranger to crossing the line at Adelaide Oval, scoring twice in a losing side in Origin 1, 2020.

Man of the Match: Payne Haas


Payne Haas has been an absolute workhorse in 2023, getting through an immaculate amount of hitups when the Broncos have the ball in hand. 

The New South Welshman leads all forwards in the NRL in average Runs (17) and Run Metres (165) and tops the league in Post Contact Metres (71).

Generally Game 1 is a battle in the trenches and we expect a big performance out of Haas. 

His consistent workload and power to back it up will cause problems for QLD and will play a large role in NSW winning the all important battle of territory, allowing his clinical outside backs to do what they do best once he piggybacks them down the field.

Verdict

The NSW Blues forwards are tipped to win the battle through the middle of the park allowing the backs to pressure the QLDers in their red-zone all night, ultimately wearing them down and covering the 2.5 points as favourites.
 
The Maroons will do their best to hold the Blues out which can keep the score under the 36.5 points given.
Best Bet: Under 38.5 Total Points @20/21 at bet365 - 3 Units
Value Bet: NSW -2.5 Handicap Line @23/24 at bet365 - 2 Units
First Tryscorer Tip: Josh Addo-Carr First Tryscorer @15/2 at bet365 - 1 Unit
Man of the Match Tip: Payne Haas Man of the Match @16/1 at bet365 - 1 Unit
Under 38.5
Total Points
@20/21 - 3 Units
Bet £10 Get £30
with bonus code NEWBONUS

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Bet at bet365
NSW -2.5
Handicap Line
@23/24 - 2 Units
Bet £10 Get £30
with bonus code NEWBONUS

Available to new customers only. Make a qualifying deposit of £5 or more and claim the offer within 30 days of registering your account to qualify for 300% of that amount in Bet Credits, up to a maximum of £30 in Bet Credits. Once released, your Bet Credits will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

Bet at bet365
Josh Addo-Carr
First Tryscorer
@15/2 - 1 Unit
Bet £10 Get £30
with bonus code NEWBONUS

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Bet at bet365
Payne Haas
Man of the Match
@16/1 - 1 Unit
Bet £10 Get £30
with bonus code NEWBONUS

Available to new customers only. Make a qualifying deposit of £5 or more and claim the offer within 30 days of registering your account to qualify for 300% of that amount in Bet Credits, up to a maximum of £30 in Bet Credits. Once released, your Bet Credits will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

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31 May 2023

Queensland v New South Wales