2021 State of Origin

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State of Origin Game 1 Predictions & Tips - New South Wales vs Queensland Preview

Gary Emmerson

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Last updated: 09 Jun 2021

Gary Emmerson 09 Jun 2021

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State of Origin predictions for Game 1 on Wednesday
The match is being played at Queensland Country Bank Stadium in Townsville (11.10am BST)
Queensland won the 2020 series 2-1
New South Wales are tipped to win the series opener by 1-12 points
Match preview, predictions and latest team news

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New South Wales are tipped to edge Queensland in Game 1 (Getty Images)

State of Origin Game 1 Predictions

NSW Blues start the series as favourites, as they did last year when losing the opening game. They are tipped to take Game 1 this year with injury doubts and fitness question marks in the Queensland camp.

The Maroons have ended up with home advantage in Townsville, so expect this to be kept close. The Blues are tipped to win by 1-12 points.

Queensland Maroons hold a 63-54 head to head advantage over New South Wales.
There has been nothing to split the sides in the last 14 matches with 7 wins each.
The last 3 series openers have been decided by 10 points or less.

Head to Head

The Maroons boast a narrow lead over the Blues in head-to-head matches, winning 63 of 119 games with two draws.

Last year's series went down to the wire with Queensland winning 2-1 after a 20-14 victory in Game 3.

Queensland Form

Queensland upset the odds last year when winning the Origin shield back with a 2-1 series win.

Having won the opening game in 18-14, the Maroons were them thumped 34-10 in Game 2 in Sydney to set up a finale.

With home advantage in Brisbane, Queensland claimed a gritty 20-14 win at Suncorp Stadium to regain the Origin shield.

Kevin Walters has departed as coach and Paul Green takes charge of the Maroons for the first time.

Queensland Team News

Queensland's fullback Kalyn Ponga is a major doubt with a groin injury after being named in the starting line up for the Maroons.

Five-eighth Cameron Munster has also been named despite being sidelined with a foot injury.

Coach Paul Green has also named Harry Grant, who has been out with a hamstring problem, in preference to Reed Mahoney.

Dummy half Mahoney and winger Kyle Feldt are set for their Origin debuts if called upon.

Backrower Felise Kaufusi is free to play after avoiding a one-match suspension for a trip in Melbourne Storm's win over Brisbane Broncos.

Queensland Team List

1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Xavier Coates 3. Kurt Capewell 4. Dane Gagai 5. Valentine Holmes 6. Cameron Munster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Christian Welch 9. Harry Grant 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. David Fifita 13. Jai Arrow 14. AJ Brimson 15. Jaydn Su’A 16. Moeaki Fotuaika 17. Joe Ofahengaue 18. Kyle Feldt 19. Reed Mahoney 20. Coen Hess

New South Wales Form

Brad Fittler's New South Wales started last year's series as Origin holders and firm favourites to repeat their victory of 2019.

But defeat in the defending champions opener in Adelaide had them on the back foot.

A 24-point victory in Sydney set up a series decider and the Blues fell short as they lost by six points in Brisbane.

New South Wales Team News

Penrith Panthers trio Brian To'o, Jarome Luai and Liam Martin have been called up for the first time for the Blues by coach Brad Fittler.

Cody Walker, Clint Gutherson, Daniel Tupou, Dale Finucane, Nathan Brown and Angus Crichton have all been left out from last year.

To'o has replaced Tupou on the wing, while backrower Martin will make his debut from the interchange bench.

Fittler has paired Panthers halves Luai and Nathan Cleary together, meaning Jack Wighton starts on the bench.

In another tactical move, the Blues have also pair fullbacks Tom Trbojevic and Latrell Mitchell as a centres pairing.

Forward Tyson Frizell is a notable absentee after suffering an ankle injury in Newcastle Knights' win over Manly Sea Eagles.

New South Wales Team List

1. James Tedesco 2. Brian To'o 3. Latrell Mitchell 4. Tom Trbojevic 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Damien Cook 10. Jake Trbojevic 11. Cam Murray 12. Tariq Sims 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Jack Wighton 15. Junior Paulo 16. Payne Haas 17. Liam Martin 18. Apisai Koroisau 19. Campbell Graham

State of Origin Game 1 FAQs

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Verdict

State of Origin 2021 Game 1

NSW coach Brad Fittler has opted for a significant portion of the Penrith Panthers line-up that has dominated this season. That gives them a big cohesiveness advantage.

With QLD carrying injury doubts, the Blues are tipped to win a tight opening game.