State of Origin Game 1 Tips for tonight's NSW vs QLD - 4 Best Bets

Freetips staff

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Last updated: 05 Jun 2024

Freetips staff 05 Jun 2024

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State of Origin Game 1 predictions for Wednesday's match (20:05 AEST)
Top tips and verdict on the 2024 Origin series opener
Predictions, first tryscorer and man of the match selections

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State of Origin (Getty Images)

The 2024 State of Origin is here with New South Wales hosting Queensland in Game 1 tonight at Accor Stadium. We've got our best bets picked out for the game.

Best Bet: Queensland -1.5
Value Bet: Under 36.5 Points
First Tryscorer: Valentine Holmes
Man of the Match: Rueben Cotter

Reigning Shield holders Queensland have recorded back-to-back 2-1 series wins and bid for the hat-trick. Will the Maroons get off to the perfect start? Or will the Blues make home advantage count.

Best Bet: Queensland -1.5

Despite the Maroons losing some power upfront and the Blues picking a team with in-form players, I'm backing stability and experience within the Queensland camp to determine the winner in this one. They can cover a -1.5 handicap.

Value Bet: Under 36.5 Points

Since 2011, the Game 1 total has gone Under 36.5 points in 11 of 13 matches. The expectation is that the scores are once again kept low, as the generally are in Origin 1.

First Tryscorer: Valentine Holmes

Valentine Holmes came up good for us in Game 2 last year and we love going back to the well. The Cowboys and Queensland centre certainly has no problem getting over the line in Origin, scoring 13 tries in 16 games.

Man of the Match: Rueben Cotter

Built like a lock but as hard as front row forward, Rueben Cotter knows what it takes to play Origin footy, participating in the past two series.

In 2023, he not only won the Man of the Match award in Game one, but was also awarded the Wally Lewis Medal for Man of the Series after putting in more work than a Destrier war horse over the three games.

Verdict

State of Origin Game 1

Queensland -1.5

Handicap Line

@9/10 - 3 Units

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Under 36.5

Total Points

@9/10 - 3 Units

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Valentine Holmes

First Tryscorer

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Man of the Match

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