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State of Origin Game 2 Predictions & Tips - NSW to take unlikely win at Suncorp in Origin 2?

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: 21 Jun 2023

Ryan Tucker 21 Jun 2023

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State of Origin Game 2 predictions for Wednesday's match (20:05 AEST)
NSW have won 5 straight in Game 2 by an average margin of 23.6 points
Can QLD break their Game 2 drought and secure the series at home?

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State of Origin (Getty Images)

Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues Predictions

Game 2 of the 2023 State of Origin series heads to Suncorp with the Queensland Maroons leading 1-0. Will they wrap up the series tonight? NSW were 2.5 point favourites in Game 1 but were upset by a QLD team who were more hungry for the win.

Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues Predictions
Head to Head
Queensland Maroons Form
Queensland Maroons Team News
Queensland Maroons Team List
New South Wales Blues Form
New South Wales Blues Team News
New South Wales Blues Team List

The bookies have now sided with the Maroons giving them a 4.5 point head start going into Game 2, despite NSW winning the middle game of the series the last five years. Suncorp is a Maroon fortress with NSW only winning two of their last 10 games at the venue dating back to 2014, something that will be nagging in the back of their minds.

With the turbulence that has surrounded the selections for NSW it would be easy to back QLD to take the series at home, but we can be sure the Blues will have taken the Game 1 loss in Adelaide to heart. We are backing them to bounce back and for the series to be all tied up heading to Game 3 in Sydney.

6 of the last 7 series where Queensland have won Game 1, NSW have come back to win Game 2
NSW have averaged 32 points in Game 2 over the past 5 years with QLD averaging only 8.4 points.
3 of the last 5 Game 2 matches have totalled over 37.5 points with the average for all 5 games being 40.4
Tom Trbojevic has scored 10 tries in 11 games for Manly this year.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has scored 12 tries in 12 games for the Dolphins in 2023.

Head to Head

The 2022 series was won 2-1 by Queensland clinching Games 1 & 3 in tightly contested matches, while being blown out by New South Wales 44-12 in Perth in Game 2.

Queensland lead the overall series head to head 22-16 with two being drawn.

New South Wales lead Game 2 wins 24-17 since Origin became a three game series in 1982. The Blues have also won five straight Game 2 matches, three of those being 1-0 down in the series.

Queensland dominate the stats at Suncorp with the record standing at 38-21. Interesting to note that QLD have a 9-3 record for all Game 2 contests played at Suncorp.

Queensland Maroons Form

Queensland led from the front in Game 1 crossing for their first try after only seven minutes through Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, his first of two in the game. Selwyn Cobbo also crossed the line in the first half to give the Maroons a 10-6 lead at half time.

NSW wrestled back the lead in the second half 12-10 before Cobbo crossed for his second of the day. The back and forth continued with QLD allowing NSW to gather a kick close to the line and cross for their third and final try of the game pushing the score to 18-12.

It was after this moment that Cam Munster took control of the game and two tries in the last 10 minutes sealed the win for the Maroons with only 47% of possession in the game.

QLD were able to kick for 732 metres in Game 1 compared to NSW’s 501 metres making it difficult for the Blues backs to work their way out of trouble.

Queensland Maroons Team News

Queensland have made three changes to their game 1 lineup due to injuries. Tom Gilbert and Jai Arrow leave a big space in the back-row with Selwyn Cobbo also set to miss a number of weeks.

Titans prop Moeaki Fotuaika earns his number back claiming a bench spot, Jeremiah Nanai has served his suspension and has been named in the starting side as a straight swap for Gilbert. Storm flyer Xavier Coates replaces Cobbo on the wing.

Corey Horsburgh is in great form for the Raiders and has been named as 19th man to cover any late injuries in the forwards. Storm and Maroons veteran Christian Welch misses selection. AJ Brimson replaces Tom Dearden as 18th man for game 2.

Tino Fa'asuamaleaui has escaped suspension, after being placed on report for a raised arm against the Tigers in Round 15.

Tom Flegler is right to play following a high tackle on Tom Trbojevic during Game 1 and will play from the bench.

Queensland Maroons Team List

1. Reece Walsh

2. Xavier Coates

3. Valentine Holmes

4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow

5. Murray Taulagi

6. Cameron Munster

7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c)

8. Lindsay Collins

9. Ben Hunt

10. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui

11. David Fifita

12. Jeremiah Nanai

13. Patrick Carrigan

Interchange

14. Harry Grant

15. Tom Flegler

16. Reuben Cotter

17. Moeaki Fotuaika

Reserves

18. AJ Brimson

19. Corey Horsburgh

New South Wales Blues Form

New South Wales did a lot right in game one, winning the run metres battle by a significant margin 1734-1452. Eight NSW players managed to run for over 100 metres led by fullback and captain James Tedesco on 217.

As was predicted the outside backs took a lot of work off their forwards working the ball out of trouble in what is now a standard game plan for the Blues.

Nathan Cleary was solid at halfback but at some times was found lacking with end of set plays and general game management in key periods.

Mitchell Moses will now be tasked to lead from the front and use his running game to keep the QLD defence guessing.

NSW conceded six penalties in Game 1 which is more than an average NRL game, but kept things tidy in their own half not giving up any set restarts.

New South Wales Blues Team News

NSW have been forced to make a number of changes for Game 2 with Nathan Cleary and Api Koroisau are both expected to miss six weeks with injury and interchange forward Cameron Murray also in doubt with a niggling groin injury.

Nicho Hynes was widely expected to take over the halfback role, but a form slump has seen Mitchell Moses swoop in at the eleventh hour to claim the spot pushing Hynes totally out of the team.

Reece Robson will take the bench utility spot, with NSW opting for two hookers. Damien Cook returns to the starting side in place of Koroisau.

Latrell Mitchell has been ruled out again with Stephen Crichton coming in as his replacement. Tom Trbojevic played for Manly in Round 15 is cleared to take the field following a concussion.

Keaon Koloamatangi is named as 19th man to cover any backrow drop outs with Liam Martin needing to pass concussion protocols to be given the green light. Matt Burton has been called upon to come in as 18th man with Crichton replacing Latrell Mitchell in the starting line up.

Tevita Pangai Junior didn’t have the expected impact in Game 1 and has missed selection. Tigers front rower Stefano Utoikamanu will replace him off the bench in his Origin debut, Junior Paulo moves to the starting side.

New South Wales Blues Team List

1. James Tedesco (c)

2. Brian To'o

3. Stephen Crichton

4. Tom Trbojevic

5. Josh Addo-Carr

6. Jarome Luai

7. Mitchell Moses

8. Junior Paulo

9. Damien Cook

10. Payne Haas

11. Tyson Frizell

12. Hudson Young

13. Isaah Yeo

Interchange

14. Stefano Utoikamanu

15. Cameron Murray

16. Liam Martin

17. Reece Robson

Reserves

18. Matt Burton

19. Keaon Koloamatangi

Verdict

Queensland v New South Wales

Whilst QLD played above their expectation in Game 1, NSW could have done more.

Now with the series on the line and two new players in the spine, I am backing NSW to come out firing and own the first 10 minutes of the game, tiring out the QLD forward pack to then allow the likes of James Tedesco and Tom Trbojevic to create space on the edges.

NSW are tipped to win game two despite Latrell Mitchell being ruled out again with a continuing calf problem.

Over 36.5 Points

Total Points

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Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow

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