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State of Origin Game 3 Predictions & Tips - Queensland to complete the sweep in Sydney?

ryan-tucker
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Last updated: 09 Jul 2023
Ryan Tucker 09 Jul 2023
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  • State of Origin Game 3 predictions for Wednesday's match (20:05 AEST)
  • 6 of the last 7 Game 3 matches have gone UNDER the points total
  • Will NSW be able to adapt to a new team set up to put points past QLD?
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origin game 2
Queensland have been crowned Origin champions (Getty Images)

New South Wales Blues vs Queensland Maroons Tips


Game 3 sees the series finish up in Sydney after the Maroons clinched the title for the second year running in a masterclass at Suncorp. This game is essentially a dead rubber but anyone who knows anything can still expect a cracker of a game - it is Origin after all. 
  • New South Wales Blues vs Queensland Maroons Tips
  • Head to Head 
  • New South Wales Blues Form
  • New South Wales BluesTeam News
  • New South Wales BluesTeam List
  • Queensland Maroons Form
  • Queensland Maroons Team News
  • Queensland Maroons Team List

In previous years you could almost expect a team to effectively clock off for the third game in a series that has already been decided. But Queensland are a different animal right now and the Blues are in selection turmoil. 

I am backing Billy Slater to have this young Maroons team in perfect form to complete the sweep deep in NSW territory for the first time since 1988.

  • Since Billy Slater took over as coach of QLD they have covered in 4 of 5 games. 
  • Only 3 of the last 9 games of Origin and 1 of 7 game 3’s have had points totals of over 40 points. 
  • Val Holmes has scored 4 tries in his last 5 Origin matches. 2 of those as first tryscorer.
  • Josh Addo-Carr has never played in an Origin series without scoring a try, he is tryless so far this series. 

Head to Head 


The 2022 series was won 2-1 by Queensland clinching games 1 & 3 in tightly contested matches, while being blown out by New South Wales 44-12, in Perth, in Game 2.

Queensland now lead the overall series head to head 23-16 with two series being drawn.

Queensland have won Game 3 a total of 27 times since Origin became a three-game series in 1982 only losing 12 times over the 40 years.

NSW hold a decisive advantage at Accor Stadium with 18-11-1 stats in all games played there. Though in the past 10 games the numbers are split equally 5-5. 

New South Wales Blues Form


New South Wales on paper should have won at least one of the first two games if not both. They showed some attacking form but could not convert their opportunities into points calling into question the ability of their coaches to instil a game plan and shape into their attacking pieces. 

Defensively the Blues were able to restrict the run metres of the Maroons to only 1627, but seven linebreaks allowed on 34 missed tackles saw the Queenslanders put on a number of long-range attacks ultimately leading to points. 

Adding to the above statistics, NSW managed only 475 kicking metres, a stark contrast to the 734 metres they kicked in their last win in Game 2 of the 2022 series.

New South Wales BluesTeam News


Brad Fittler has again wielded the axe cutting a number of players from the game 2 squad. 

Jarome Luai misses selection, replaced by the inform Rabbitohs pivot Cody Walker. Junior Paulo drops out of the squad replaced by previously out of favour Eels prop Reagan Campbell-Gillard. 

Hudson Young, Stefano Utoikamanu & Tyson Frizell all miss selection with Isaah Yeo moving back to the bench. The new back row starters include Cam Murray at lock as well as Keaon Koloamatangi and Liam Martin on the edges.

A bolt from the blue sees Bradman Best come in at centre with Tom Trbojevic ruled out with injury. Jacob Saifiti and Clint Gutherson are new faces on the Blues bench.

Matt Burton and Nicho Hynes are nowhere to be seen despite being touted as the future of the NSW Blues.

New South Wales BluesTeam List


1. James Tedesco (c)
2. Brian To'o
3. Bradman Best
4. Stephen Crichton
5. Josh Addo-Carr
6. Cody Walker
7. Mitchell Moses
8. Jake Trbojevic
9. Damien Cook
10. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 
11. Liam Martin
12. Keaon Koloamatangi
13. Cameron Murray

Interchange

14. Isaah Yeo
15. Jacob Saifiti
16. Reece Robson
17. Clint Gutherson

Reserves

18th man: Scott Drinkwater
19th man: Spencer Leniu

Queensland Maroons Form


Queensland could do nothing wrong in their game 2 demolition of NSW. Running out winners 32-6 the Maroons started their onslaught early with Val Holmes crossing after just eight minutes. 

QLD were able to run in a further three tries before NSW crossed for their first and only try through Damien Cook. 

Queensland were outdone in a majority of statistical measures such as possession, run metres, kick return metres, missed tackles and penalties. That though did not hamper their impressive attacking abilities as they ran riot over the Blues posting their biggest winning margin since 2015.

Queensland Maroons Team News


Queensland have made two personnel changes due to injury and suspension with Tom Flegler and Reece Walsh both unavailable for this game. 

Titans whiz AJ Brimson will start at fullback with firebrand Raider Corey Horsburgh taking the place of Flegler on the bench.

In other changes, Harry Grant has been promoted to the starting side with Ben Hunt coming off the interchange.

Queensland Maroons Team List


1. AJ Brimson
2. Xavier Coates
3. Valentine Holmes 
4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
5. Murray Taulagi
6. Cameron Munster
7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c)
8. Reuben Cotter
9. Harry Grant
10. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui
11. David Fifita 
12. Jeremiah Nanai
13. Patrick Carrigan

Interchange

14. Ben Hunt
15. Lindsay Collins
16. Moeaki Fotuaika
17. Corey Horsburgh

Reserves

18th man: Tom Dearden
19th man: J'maine Hopgood

Verdict

We haven’t seen a series whitewash since 2010 - the dynasty years. But if anyone can motivate these blokes to show up then it has to be Billy Slater. I am happily backing the Maroons to cover and take the total over with Val Holmes picking up at least one four pointer.

Best Bet: Queensland -2.5 Handicap Line @9/10 at bet365 - 3 Units
Value Bet: Under 40.5 Total Points @20/21 at Boylesports - 2 Units
Anytime Tryscorer Tip: Josh Addo-Carr Anytime Tryscorer @73/49 at bet365 - 1 Unit
Anytime Tryscorer Tip: Valentine Holmes Anytime Tryscorer @9/4 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Queensland -2.5
Handicap Line
@9/10 - 3 Units
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Valentine Holmes
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12 Jul 2023

New South Wales v Queensland