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State of Origin Game 3 First Try Scorer - 3 bets to get the first try in Queensland vs New South Wales

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: 10 Jul 2024

Jeremy Darke 10 Jul 2024

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State of Origin Game 3 takes place on Wednesday, July 17th
Historical data: QLD 13 first tries, NSW 10 since 2017
Top picks: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Mitch Moses, Valentine Holmes

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Who will get the opening try? (Getty)

State of Origin 3 First Try Scorer Tips

The Origin Decider is set to be blockbuster with key players across the park looking to produce a moment of magic. One of those will be the opening try of the game.

Nothing can split these two teams with Queensland coming into the match with a slight edge due to Game 3 being played at home. Does that give them the edge in the tryscorer markets?

We've got our best First Tryscorer tips for the Queensland vs New South Wales showed, diving into the record books as far back as 2017, when the last current player scored the first try in an Origin game.

In the 23 games played in the last 7 years, QLD have scored first on 13 occasions with NSW having scored first 10 times.
The centres (8) and wingers (7) have naturally dominated the first try scoring category, second-rowers have scored on 4 occasions with no other position scoring first more than once.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has scored 9 tries across his 6 Origin appearances.
Angus Crichton has scored 7 tries in 11 games for the Roosters this season.

Based on these trends and their current try scoring form here are our top 3 picks for the first try scorer in State of Origin Game 3.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow - QLD

Despite Queensland getting dominated in the second match of the series, the Maroons still found a way to get The Hammer through the defensive line and over for his fourth try of the series.

The Dolphins fullback has proven that he is unstoppable and is the real key to opening up the Blues on their right edge.

If I am Billy Slater I am going in with the mentality of ‘If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’ and will be giving the Cairns flyer the ball as early as possible in the match.

Mitch Moses - NSW

The injection of Mitch Moses into the Blues squad flipped this series with the Parramatta halfback almost single handedly tearing the Maroons apart in Game Two.

Moses had 4 try assists last match for the Blues and his ability to open up space is his number one strength, however that is also the key to unlocking his own running game and why he has scored 3 tries in his past 3 games for the Eels.

It would be fitting for the Blues to get off to a good start with their No. 7 holding onto the ball and running at the line the first chance they get down in the Queensland 20 metres.

Valentine Holmes - QLD

Val has had a pretty quiet series so far and spent most of his time defending in Game 2 and was unable to get into the match.

Holmes has been a prolific tryscorer for the Maroons and is a First Tryscorer specialist. He has scored first in at least one game in 5 of his 6 series played. Holmes has scored 13 tries for Queensland with seven of them being the first of the game.

If you like following the trends then the North Queensland veteran definitely needs to be in your first tryscorer repertoire.

Verdict

State of Origin Game 3

Centres lead the first tryscorer stats so both Queensland are in the mix with Val Holmes and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow. The fairytale start from Mitch Moses would really get the Blues going.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow

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Mitchell Moses

First Tryscorer

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Valentine Holmes

First Tryscorer

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