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State of Origin Game 3 Tips & Predictions - Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues meet in the decider

Last updated: 10 Jul 2024
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Ryan Tucker 10 Jul 2024
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  • Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues predictions for Wednesday’s State of Origin game
  • Maroons have a historical edge in deciding matches, winning 5 of the last 6 Game 3 deciders
  • Queensland favored to win Game 3 due to home advantage
  • Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Zac Lomax expected as anytime try scorers
The Hammer
Who will win the Game 3 decider? (Getty)

Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues Game 3 Tips

The 2024 State of Origin series all comes down to a deciding Game 3 and the prediction in this game is that Queensland will just edge New South Wales with the home ground advantage being key.
  • Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues Game 3 Tips
  • Head to Head 
  • Queensland Maroons Form
  • Queensland Maroons Team News
  • Queensland Maroons Team List
  • New South Wales Blues Form
  • New South Wales BluesTeam News
  • New South Wales BluesTeam List

Queensland were able to put their opponent to the sword in Game 1 thanks to a send-off in the early minutes. In Game 2 NSW scored at will in a dominant performance. 

With home advantage and a history of winning deciders, Queensland are backed for sucess.

  • QLD have won 5 of the last 6 Game 3 deciders
  • Only 1 of the previous 8 Game 3s have gone Over a Game Total of 41.5
  • Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has scored in every Origin game he has played for a total of 7 tries in 5 games.
  • Zac Lomax has scored 11 tries at club level this season as well as 3 tries in this series so far

Head to Head 

The 2023 series was won 2-1 by Queensland clinching games 1 & 2 in a dominant fashion. NSW went on to win Game 3 in Sydney to avoid a sweep.

Queensland lead the overall series head to head 24-16 with 2 series being drawn. Queensland also hold an advantage in overall games won 70-59 with 2 drawn games.

The Maroons have won 2 of the last 3 Game 3s as well as 2 of the last 3 Game 3 deciders. 

Across all games played at Suncorp Stadium, QLD are 39-20 with 1 game being drawn.

Queensland Maroons Form

The Maroons were blown off the park in the first half of Game 2. They had only 30% Possession themselves and when NSW had the ball gave up 25 Missed Tackles. 

Queensland had trouble adjusting to the pressure that the Blues were coming with racing up on the outside cutting off the swinging backline plays with Reece Walsh, Daly Cherry-Evans and Tom Dearden visibly frustrated at the lack of space and time to create any positive attacking pressure.

In a bright spot for the Maroons the 2nd half was a much more typical half of footy for them scoring 3 tries to 1 whilst also finding ways to negate the rushing defence of the Blues. It was too little too late though as their opponents eventually ran away with the victory.

Queensland Maroons Team News

Injuries have forced Billy Slater to make changes to his backline with Val Holmes moving onto the wing to cover for Xavier Coates and Dane Gagai coming in at centre. Selwyn Cobbo is another new face in the starting line up following his 18th man showing in Game 1 with Murray Taulagi also out injured. 

Up front Jayden Su’a has been dropped with Kurt Capewell coming into the starting team, Kalyn Ponga takes the vacant bench spot

Queensland Maroons Team List

1. Reece Walsh
2. Selwyn Cobbo
3. Dane Gagai
4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
5. Valentine Holmes
6. Tom Dearden
7. Daly Cherry-Evans
8. Reuben Cotter
9. Ben Hunt
10. Lindsay Collins
11. Kurt Capewell
12. Jeremiah Nanai
13. Patrick Carrigan

14. Harry Grant
15. Moeaki Fotuaika
16. Felise Kaufusi
17. Kalyn Ponga

18. Trent Loiero
19. Brendan Piakura
20. Reed Mahoney

New South Wales Blues Form

The Blues went into Melbourne in Game 2 with a plan to disrupt the Maroons attack by getting up quick in defence and squeezing in on the edges. Not only did their tactic work it stopped Queensland dead in their tracks, stunning their opponent into submission for a large portion of the first half. 

Add to that the back three of Dylan Edwards, Brian To’o and Zac Lomax combined for 459 Run Metres in the game ensuring that NSW were on the front foot in every set of 6. 

New South Wales BluesTeam News

Latrell Mitchell has been forced out of the team with a foot injury after being one of the Blues biggest sparks in Game 2. He is replaced at centre by Bradman Best who is ripping it up in club land for the Knights. 

Mitch Barnett is the only other change to the team that won Game 2 in Melbourne with Haumole Olakau’atu the man to miss out.

New South Wales BluesTeam List

1. Dylan Edwards
2. Brian To’o
3. Stephen Crichton
4. Bradman Best
5. Zac Lomax
6. Jarome Luai
7. Mitch Moses
8. Jake Trbojevic
9. Reece Robson
10. Payne Haas
11. Liam Martin
12. Angus Crichton
13. Cameron Murray

14. Connor Watson
15. Isaah Yeo
16. Mitch Barnett
17. Spencer Leniu

18. Matt Burton
19. Haumole Olakau’atu
20. Luke Keary


Queensland are backed to win and cover the -1.5 points as favourites. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has already made a name for himself as an Origin Tryscorer and can cross again.

Best Bet1: Queensland -1.5 Line @20/21 at bet365 - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Under 42 Game Total @17/20 at Betgoodwin - 1 Unit
Best Bet3: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow Anytime Tryscorer @35/23 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Zac Lomax Anytime Tryscorer @21/20 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
Queensland -1.5
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Queensland Maroons v New South Wales Blues - State of Origin Game 3