2025 State of Origin Game 3 Tips & Preview NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons clash in series decider

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: 02 Jul 2025

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Jeremy Darke 02 Jul 2025

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NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons expert predictions for Wednesday’s State of Origin Game 3 NRL game
NSW Blues predicted to win 2025 Origin Series decider
Key players Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Latrell Mitchell expected to score

Who will win the Origin series? (Getty Images)

NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons Preview
Head to Head
NSW Blues Form
NSW Blues Team News
NSW Blues Team List
QLD Maroons Form
QLD Maroons Team News
QLD Maroons Team List

NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons Preview

NSW Blues have home advantage in the 2025 Origin Series decider and can wrap up victory by covering a 7.5-point line. Expect more discipline from the Blues than in Game 2 and to comfortably win and the points total to stay under.

NSW have won the last two Game Threes at Accor Stadium when the series has been tied 1-1.
Queensland have scored 14 points or less in 8 of their last 10 matches at Accor Stadium.
The last 5 Game Threes have had a game total under 42.5 points.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has 11 tries in 9 Origin appearances, including two tries in Game 2.

Head to Head

The 2025 series is 1-1 with the Blues getting a dominant 18-6 victory in the opener. The Maroons took advantage of the poor weather to get their first win in Perth, holding on to a slim 26-24 victory after leading 26-6 at halftime.

The 2024 Series was won by NSW 2-1 clinching Games 2 and 3 in dominant fashion after being blown out in Game 3. The series win snapped a streak of two series wins for the Maroons.

QLD lead the overall series H2H 24-17 with two series being drawn. The Maroons also hold an advantage in game wins 70-61 with two games ending in a draw.

NSW Blues Form

A tough opening 40 minutes in Game 2 put the Blues on the backfoot, down 26-6 at the break. However they showed that they have “the dog in ‘em” pushing the Maroons all the way to the final whistle, going down 26-24 after blanking Queensland in the second half.

Call it what you want but being on the wrong end of a 0-8 penalty count in the first half is going to put your team under pressure and that is certainly what happened to NSW in Game 2. It evened up to 2-2 in the second half and the Blues won the half 18-0.

Nathan Cleary was clearly underdone in Game 2, struggling with a leg injury that hindered his in-play kicking and also goal kicking. After last week’s performance against Canterbury at club level, Blues fans do not need to worry.

If you close a blind eye on the first half of Game 2, The Blues have dominated Queensland and the second half of that match was a true testament with NSW controlling 64% of the ball having 321 more run metres and winning the linebreak count 3 to zip.

NSW Blues Team News

No news is good news for the Blues, despite losing Game 2 of the series. Laurie Daley has stuck to his guns and has set the exact same starting 17 as the previous match.

The Blues have made just two forced changes all series, with Mitch Barnett and Mitch Moses injured, being replaced by Stefano Utoikamanu and Jarome Luai.

NSW Blues Team List

1. Dylan Edwards

2. Brian To'o

3. Stephen Crichton

4. Latrell Mitchell

5. Zac Lomax

6. Jarome Luai

7. Nathan Cleary

8. Max King

9. Reece Robson

10. Payne Haas

11. Liam Martin

12. Angus Crichton

13. Isaah Yeo

Interchange

14. Connor Watson

15. Spencer Leniu

16. Hudson Young

17. Stefano Utoikamanu

Reserves

18. Jacob Kiraz

19. Lindsay Smith

20. Bradman Best

QLD Maroons Form

Queensland needed a big first half in Game 2 in Perth and didn’t they get it, scoring 26 unanswered points to lead by 20 into the break. Yes, they got the rub of the green, but they still needed to find a spark in attack that had eluded them in the last 2 Origin matches.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow scored a double and newly appointed captain Cameron Munster crossed before new addition Kurt Capewell proved as another Billy Slater master-stroke.

The concern for Queensland is what happened next with NSW putting a stop to anything Queensland tried to muster, holding them scoreless in the second half, which was their third tryless half in the last 3 matches.

The Maroons also had 29 missed tackles in the second half of the match compared to 7 in the first half, falling back into the habit that saw them miss 49 tackles in Game 1.

QLD Maroons Team News

Plenty happening in the Queensland starting 13 for Game three that will certainly be make or break for their chances.

Kalyn Ponga has been ruled out which sees Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow get a chance to star at fullback. Valentine Holmes pushes back out to the wing and Gehamat Shibasaki will debut in the centres.

Josh Papalii comes out of representative retirement to replace Mo Fotuaika, bringing experience, impact and a winning culture to the QLD pack.

QLD Maroons Team List

1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow

2. Xavier Coates

3. Robert Toia

4. Gehamat Shibasaki

5. Valentine Holmes

6. Cameron Munster (C)

7. Tom Dearden

8. Josh Papalii

9. Harry Grant

10. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui

11. Reuben Cotter

12. Kurt Capewell

13. Trent Loiero

Interchange

14. Kurt Mann

15. Lindsay Collins

16. Pat Carrigan

17. Jeremiah Nanai

Reserves

18. Reece Walsh

19. J’maine Hopgood

20. Josh Kerr

Verdict

NSW v QLD State of Origin Game 3

The Blues will be superior in this match, covering as 7.5-point favourites holding the Maroons to a low score and the match total staying under 42.5.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Latrell Mitchell are the anytime tryscorer picks.

NSW -7.5

Handicap/Line

@7/8 - 3 Units

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Under 42.5

Game Total

@11/12 - 2 Units

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Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow

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Latrell Mitchell

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