New Zealand vs Australia - All Blacks to burst Wallabies bubble and retain Bledisloe Cup

Value in the handicap market as New Zealand returns to fortress Eden Park
All Blacks vs Australia 2018
The All Blacks return to Eden Park where they have not lost sicne 1994 to face the Wallabies in a massive Bledisloe Cup match this weekend (Getty Images)

New Zealand vs Australia Preview, Predictions & Betting Tips


New Zealand will be desperate to claim victory at Eden Park in this Bledisloe Cup decider against Australia. It will take a brave man to bet against the All Blacks despite their poor Rugby Championship. History suggests New Zealand are good value to win in the handicap market.

New Zealand Form & Team News


New Zealand have not been their normal selves. A narrow win over Argentina and a draw at home to South Africa got their Rugby Championship off to a rocky start, but their 47-26 defeat at the Perth Oval sent shock-waves through the country.

The All Blacks are world number one and will come out firing on Saturday to retain the Bledisloe Cup, a trophy they have held since 2003. Steve Hansen is likely to move away from experimentation and play his strongest line-up to get the victory.

This means Beauden Barrett should start at fly-half and Ben Smith at full-back. It will make a huge difference to a side craving some momentum before the 2019 Rugby World Cup.

New Zealand have not lost at Eden Park in 42 matches with their last defeat there coming against France in 1994. They have also covered the -14 handicap in their last 6 matches at home against Australia.

The bookmakers are banking on punters to go with Australia to get close based on last week’s result. History suggests there's value on the All Blacks to cover the -14 handicap and keep hold of the Bledisloe Cup.

beauden barrett
Beauden Barrett is set to return to his favoured fly-half position where he won World Rugby Player of the Year award (Getty Images)

Australia Form & Team News


Australia had a slow start to the Rugby Championship with a heavy defeat to South Africa, but managed to get over the line at home to Argentina. They came alive in their final game against the All Blacks though, winning 47-26 at the Perth Oval.

I backed them to cover the + 11 handicap because they were desperate for a big result prior to the World Cup, especially at home. While they were always in the hunt to cover the handicap, Michael Cheika’s side owes the victory largely to a red card handed out to Scott Barrett in the 40th minute.

History does not favour the Wallabies in this fixture despite the optimism surrounding them after the big win. Australia have not won in New Zealand in their last 21 visits stretching back to 2001. The Wallabies also have a long history of beating the All Blacks at home and then being crushed away.

In 2008 Australia beat New Zealand 34-19 in Sydney and then got beaten 39-10 at Eden Park the following week. In 2011 they defeated the All Blacks 25-10 in Brisbane only to suffer World Cup semi final heartbreak 20-6 at Eden Park. 

2014 saw Australia draw at home and get smashed 51-20 at Eden Park, and in 2015 it was the same all over again as they won in Sydney 27-19 and then lost 41-13 at Eden Park.

Will 2019 be any different? History suggests not, and the venue is Eden Park, again. For those brave enough, the Wallabies can be backed at 5.50 to claim the Bledisloe Cup but for the task that awaits them, I feel even that is short.

New Zealand vs Australia Head to Head


New Zealand have won their last 21 matches against Australia and Eden Park where the Wallabies have suffered numerous heavy defeats.

Their last match was at the Perth Oval last week where Australia ran out 46-29 winners against a 14-man All Blacks side, having a man advantage in the second half. 

New Zealand vs Australia Match Up


New Zealand will come out all guns blazing this weekend. After last week’s shock performance the media have been all over them. They remain the world’s best side and the Australians will have to match them physically to win the Bledisloe Cup.

new zealand vs australia 2018 eden park
New Zealand have covered the -14 handicap against Australia in the visitors last six visits to the country (Getty Images)

New Zealand vs Australia Key Statistics


  • New Zealand have covered the -14 handicap against Australia in the last 6 matches played in New Zealand.
  • New Zealand are likely to play their strongest possible line-up.
  • Australia have not won the Bledisloe Cup since 2003.
  • Australia have not beaten New Zealand in New Zealand in their last 21 matches (since 2001).

Verdict

The All Blacks return to Eden Park where they have won their last 42 test matches and are tipped to bounce back and cover the -14 handicap at 1.90.

Best Bet: New Zealand -14 @ 1.90 at bet365 - 5 Units

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Post bet analysis

History repeated itself as was predicted in the preview. Australia were once against annihilated at Eden Park after beating the All Blacks in Australia the week before. New Zealand were dominant throughout the encounter while the Wallabies hardly had a sniff. 
Betting Slip | 17 Aug 2019

New Zealand v Australia

Best Bet WON

Bet 5 Win 9.50
New Zealand -14
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