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New Zealand vs South Africa Predictions & Tips - Springboks to push All Blacks all the way

ralph-staniforth
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Last updated: 14 Jul 2023
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Ralph Staniforth 14 Jul 2023
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  • Watch New Zealand vs South Africa in the Rugby Championship on Saturday (08:00 BST)
  • All Blacks have failed to beat the visitors in their last 2 home games
  • Can the Springboks upset the odds in Auckland?
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Springboks vs All Blacks
South Africa can win in Auckland for the first time since 1937 (Getty images)

New Zealand vs South Africa Predictions


New Zealand were expected to be favourites on home soil but being priced at 1.42 looks a bit extreme with a handicap of six points. Considering that South Africa have not lost to the All Blacks in New Zealand on their last two visits, I expect this to be much closer.
  • New Zealand vs South Africa Predictions
  • Head to Head
  • New Zealand Form
  • New Zealand Injuries & Team News
  • South Africa Form
  • South Africa Injuries & Team News

In six of the last 10 matches between these sides, the match has been decided by two or less points. I am backing the visitors to at least get within the handicap with great value on Springbok win.

  • New Zealand have won their last 8 matches.
  • South Africa are unbeaten in their last 2 matches against New Zealand.
  • South Africa have won their last 2 matches.

Head to Head


New Zealand have won four of their last eight matches against South Africa with the Springboks winning three and one draw.

Last year they met twice, both times in South Africa. The hosts won the first one 26-10 before losing the following week 35-23.

New Zealand Form


New Zealand had a very inconsistent 2022 where they produced some very mediocre performances, but also showed the best of what they had to offer at times.

This year has, however, started with a bang. Last week the All Blacks traveled to Argentina where they were expected to struggle. Being the first game of the season for both sides, it was a tough one to call.

New Zealand however started like a house on fire and cruised to a 41-12 victory in Mendoza. It was a hostile atmosphere, but the All Blacks were far too good on the day.

They return home for a clash against the Springboks this week. This is notoriously the biggest match of the year for both sides, and this week should be no different.

New Zealand Injuries & Team News


New Zealand, like their visitors, have made changes this weekend. After a superb display at flyhalf last weekend, Damian McKenzie misses out on the 23 altogether with Richie Mo’unga coming into the 10 jumper.

New Zealand starting lineup: 15. Beauden Barrett, 14. Will Jordan, 13. Rieko Ioane, 12. Jordie Barrett, 11. Mark Telea, 10. Richie Mo'unga, 9. Aaron Smith, 8. Ardie Savea, 7. Sam Cane (captain), 6. Shannon Frizell, 5. Scott Barrett, 4. Brodie Retallick, 3. Tyrel Lomax, 2. Codie Taylor, 1. Ethan de Groot

Replacements: 16. Samisoni Taukei'aho, 17. Tamaiti Williams, 18. Nepo Laulala, 19. Tupou Vaa'i, 20. Dalton Papali'i, 21. Finlay Christie, 22. Braydon Ennor, 23. Caleb Clarke

South Africa Form


South Africa began their Rugby Championship campaign with a bang on home soil last weekend against Australia. While the Aussies started well, scoring first and were on top for the first quarter hour, the Springboks completely dominated thereafter.

The 43-12 victory was not even as convincing as the scoreline suggests. The Springboks left plenty of points out on the field with some poor errors when they should really have scored.

That said, you can’t take anything away from the performance. Other than the lineouts, the hosts dominated every aspect of play.

New Zealand however offers a completely different challenge, especially in New Zealand. The Boks have not lost there in their last two visits, winning one (2018) and drawing one (2019).

South Africa Injuries & Team News


After sending 13 players to New Zealand ahead of time, the Springboks have plenty of changes in their side. Willie le Roux, Lukhanyo Am and the front-row are the only players retained in the starting lineup.

Damian Willemse takes over at flyhalf which means the visitors have no regular goal-kicker. This may be a problem.

South Africa starting lineup: 15. Willie le Roux, 14. Cheslin Kolbe, 13. Lukhanyo Am, 12. Damian de Allende, 11. Makazole Mapimpi, 10. Damian Willemse, 9. Faf de Klerk, 8. Jasper Wiese, 7. Franco Mostert, 6. Kwagga Smith, 5. Lood de Jager, 4. Eben Etzebeth (capt), 3 Frans Malherbe, 2. Bongi Mbonambi, 1. Steven Kitshoff

Replacements: 16. Malcolm Marx, 17. Thomas du Toit, 18. Vincent Koch, 19. RG Snyman, 20. Pieter-Steph du Toit, 21. Duane Vermeulen, 22. Grant Williams, 23. Manie Libbok

Verdict

South Africa are backed to cover the +6 handicap and win.

Best Bet: South Africa +6 Handicap @10/11 at bet365 - 5 Units
Value Bet: South Africa Win Full Time Result @2/1 at bet365 - 2 Units
South Africa +6
Handicap
@10/11 - 5 Units
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with bonus code NEWBONUS

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Bet at bet365
South Africa Win
Full Time Result
@2/1 - 2 Units
Bet £10 Get £30
with bonus code NEWBONUS

Available to new customers only. Make a qualifying deposit of £5 or more and claim the offer within 30 days of registering your account to qualify for 300% of that amount in Bet Credits, up to a maximum of £30 in Bet Credits. Once released, your Bet Credits will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

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