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New Zealand vs Tonga Predictions & Tips - Value on Tonga in the handicap market

  • New Zealand vs Tonga predictions for Saturday’s rugby international fixture
  • Match is being played at 08:00 BST at Mount Smart Stadium in Auckland
  • Tonga have lost by less than 79 points in 2 of their 3 matches against New Zealand
  • I am backing Tonga to get within the 79 point handicap
  • Preview, predictions, stats & team news
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All Blacks set for easy win (Getty Images)
Ralph Staniforth 02 Jul 2021
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New Zealand vs Tonga Predictions


New Zealand are not expected to be at their free-flowing best as they were last time they met Tonga. They will almost certainly win by a big margin, but 79 points is bigger than I expect. Tonga are tipped to lose by less.

  • New Zealand have selected an experimental lineup for this fixture.
  • Tonga have lost by less than 79 points in 2 of their 3 matches against New Zealand.
  • Tonga have won or lost by less than 79 points in 8 of their last 9 matches.
  • Tonga have lost by 2, 16, & 32 points in their last 3 matches against top tier opposition. 

Head to Head


New Zealand lead Tonga 3-0 in their head to head meetings. The last time they met the All Blacks won 92-7 ahead of the 2019 Rugby World Cup. Tonga’s other two defeats were at the 2015 and 2011 Rugby World Cup’s and were by 38 and 31 points respectively.

New Zealand Form


New Zealand did not enjoy their best year in 2020 but still managed to claim the re-jigged Tri Nations campaign.

The All Blacks suffered their first ever defeat to Argentina when they lost 25-15 at the Suncorp Stadium while Australia also managed to beat them 24-22. New Zealand did however bounce back to beat the Aussies 43-5 and 27-7, the two sides also drew 16-all in the last match.

Going back to a disappointing 2019 Rugby World Cup where the All Blacks ended third, they will want to get back into their stride in 2021.

New Zealand Injuries & Team News


Ian Foster has gone with an experimental side ahead of this clash. Quinn Tupaea will make his debut at inside centre in the absence of the injured Anton Lienert-Brown, Jack Goodhue, David Havili and Braydon Ennor.

Richie Mo’unga gets the nod at flyhalf ahead of Beauden Barret.

There are three debutants on the bench in the form of George Bower, Ethan Blackadder and Finlay Christie.

Tonga Form


Tonga have not played international rugby since 2019. They have only two wins in their last nine matches, one against the USA at the 2019 Rugby World Cup and against Canada during the Pacific Nations Cup.

In 2019 Tonga played a friendly against New Zealand and got hammered 92-7 so they won’t be too confident this weekend. While their last match was a 31-19 win over the USA at the World Cup, Tonga had lost their previous three at the tournament, albeit with some impressive showings. 

Tonga Injuries & Team News


Tonga have few injury concerns but have played minimal rugby over the last year. They will take some time to get into their stride, not something that bodes well against an All Blacks outfit.

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Verdict

Tonga can be reasonably competitive against a New Zealand experimental side. I am tipping Tonga to lose by less than 79 points.

Best Bet: Tonga +79 Handicap Handicap @-111.11 at BetMGM - 4 Units

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