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England vs New Zealand Rugby Betting Tips - Epic expected in first World Cup semi final with England set to push the favourites

Handicap market offers value as tight match could go either way in Yokohama
England vs New Zealand twickenham rugby 2018
England were unfortunately to lose 16-15 the last time they played the All Blacks at Twickenham in 2018 (Getty Images)

England vs New Zealand Betting Tips

The first semi final of the 2019 Rugby World Cup takes place at the Yokohama International Stadium between England and New Zealand. Both sides are in great form so I’m backing it to be a tight encounter. England are paying evens in the handicap market with long odds on an outright win too.

England Form

England topped their pool and comfortably cruised through their quarter final match with Australia at Oita Stadium, winning 40-16. 

Jonny May’s World Cup keeps getting better with his two tries against Australia. Although I expect a low-scoring match, May will be a popular pick for the anytime try-scorer market for punters.

Over the last six matches England have finished within seven points on four occasions. In 2018 they narrowly lost 16-15 in a match they really should have won. The form of Billy Vunipola, Manu Tuilagi and Owen Farrell will be key to England advancing.

An England win is paying 3.60 which in my view offers a fantastic opportunity for my value bet. My best bet will be for England to cover the +7 handicap at 2.00.

England News

Eddie Jones surprised many as Owen Farrell moved to fly-half and Manu Tuilagi came in at inside centre while George Ford moved onto the bench. 

For this encounter Ford returs to fly-half, Farrell plays at inside centre while Tuilagi shifts to outside centre. It is another surprise from Jones who has become known for his tinkering based on opposition.

England team: 15 Elliot Daly, 14 Anthony Watson, 13 Manu Tuilagi, 12 Owen Farrell (c), 11 Jonny May, 10 George Ford, 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Billy Vunipola, 7 Sam Underhill, 6 Tom Curry, 5 Courtney Lawes, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Kyle Sinckler, 2 Jamie George, 1 Mako Vunipola.

Subs: 16 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 17 Joe Marler, 18 Dan Cole, 19 George Kruis, 20 Mark Wilson, 21 Willi Heinz, 22 Henry Slade, 23 Jonathan Joseph.

Jonny May
Jonny May could be popular in the try-scoring market considering his exploits against Australia in the quarter final (Getty Images)

New Zealand Form 

I expected the All Blacks to be undercooked after their last pool match against Italy was called off but it did the complete opposite. They performed to a level we have not witnessed in the last two years as they smashed Ireland 46-14 at Tokyo Stadium.

England pose a different threat completely, mainly because they are in superb form themselves. Many consider these to two best sides at the World Cup but the All Blacks are still clear favourites to reach the final at 1.36.

I expected slightly longer odds for New Zealand, perhaps around the 1.60 mark. The handicap favours England with it set at -7 for the men in black. To cover -7 the All Blacks are valued at evens.

New Zealand News

There is very little secret about Steve Hansen’s best side. If they are cleared of any serious injury it is likely to be the exact same team from the quarter final. The experiment of Richie Mo’unga and Beauden Barrett in tandem is paying off so Hansen will not change from that.

Steve Hansen knows that England will be very physical and has thus made a crucial change. Scott Barrett comes in at flank to replace the smaller, more mobile Sam Cane.

15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Sevu Reece, 13 Jack Goodhue, 12 Anton Lienert-Brown, 11 George Bridge, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Ardie Savea , 6 Scott Barrett, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Nepo Laulala, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Joe Moody.

Subs: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Ofa Tuungafasi, 18 Angus Ta’avao, 19 Patrick Tuipulotu, 20 Sam Cane, 21 TJ Perenara, 22 Sonny Bill Williams, 23 Jordie Barrett.

England vs New Zealand Head to Head

New Zealand have won the last six matches against England, both home and away. 2012 was the last time England managed victory. Although England have finished within eight points in five of those six defeats.

Their last encounter took place in 2018 at Twickenham. New Zealand came out 16-15 winners in a very controversial match.

England vs New Zealand Betting Odds

England are outsiders at 3.60 while favourites New Zealand are rather short at 1.36. The handicap market has great value with England paying 2.00 to cover +7 points and New Zealand -7 carrying the same odds.

The half time/full time market is always popular. New Zealand are priced at 1.72 and England 4.33 to be leading at the end of both halves. We will look at the try-scoring market closer to the time.

England vs New Zealand Match Up

Both England and New Zealand were free-scoring in their quarter final victories but expect a much more conservative score this time around. I expect this match to be largely decided by the boots of England’s Owen Farrell and New Zealand’s Richie Mo’unga.

A titanic battle awaits between the two sets of forwards. New Zealand will need to neutralise England’s power game first and foremost otherwise Farrell’s deadly accurate boot could prove to be the difference.

richie mo'unga and beauden barrett
The combination between Richie Mo'unga and Beauden Barrett has flourished of late after a stuttering start (Getty Images)

England vs New Zealand Key Statistics

  • England have covered the +7 handicap in 4 of their last 6 matches against New Zealand.
  • England have won 9 of their 12 matches in 2019 (1 draw).
  • England lost 16-15 to New Zealand in 2018.

Where will England vs New Zealand be played?

England will play New Zealand at the Yokohama International Stadium in Yokohama, Japan.

When will England vs New Zealand be played?

England will play New Zealand on Saturday 26 October  2019 at 09:00 CET.

Have England ever played New Zealand at a World Cup before?

They met at the first three World Cup's in 1987, 1991 & 1995. New Zealand won all three matches.

What is the record between England and New Zealand at neutral venues?

New Zealand won the only neutral venue match between the two sides at the 1995 Rugby World Cup. The match was played at Newlands in Cape Town, South Africa.

How many tries has Jonny May scored at the 2019 Rugby World Cup?

Jonny May scored two tries against Australia in the quarter final to take his tally for the tournament to three tries.


England and New Zealand have recently played out a few very tight battles and I expect no different this time around. My best bet is for England to cover the +7 handicap at 2.00 with a possible upset victory paying 3.60.

Take advantage of the bet365 Rugby World Cup Early Payout promotion. Sign up to bet365 using the bonus code NEWBONUS and get paid out if the team you back goes 15 points ahead at any stage in the match.

Best Bet: England +7 Handicap @2.00 at bet365 - 4 Units
Value Bet: England Win @3.60 at bet365 - 1 Unit

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Post bet analysis

I smiled all the way through this preview as the writing had been on the wall for the last 18 months. The All Blacks form had dipped and England were dominant despite defeat in their last encounter. A very profitable match this one.
26 Oct 2019

England v New Zealand

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