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Wales vs South Africa Rugby Betting Tips - Nail biter expected as Wales look for an upset victory in World Cup semi final

Value lies with Wales as recent history is set to repeat itself against the Springboks in Yokohama
Wales vs South Africa rugby 2018
Wales have beaten South Africa in their last four matches (Getty Images)

Wales vs South Africa Betting Tips

Wales take on South Africa at the Yokohama International Stadium in the second semi final of the 2019 Rugby World Cup. South Africa are favourites to advance but recent history suggests the value lies with Wales. The handicap market is of particular interest in this one.

Wales Form

Wales achieved a nail-biting 20-19 victory over France quarter final at Oita Stadium which served as a timely reminder that anything can happen.

Playing the Springboks is a daunting prospect but Wales have an envious recent record against them. Wales have won the last four encounters against South Africa with the Springboks last victory coming in the quarter final of the 2015 Rugby World Cup.

Five of the last seven matches between the two have finished within seven points too, regardless of the winner, something I see happening again.

Personally I thought the bookmakers would have had this as a tighter contest but Wales have been given the underdogs tag at 3.60 for the win and 2.00 to cover the +7 handicap.

Both offer fantastic value to the punter and I plan on taking full advantage. My best bet tip is for Wales to cover the +7 handicap at 2.00 and possibly cause an upset at 3.60. 

Wales News

Once teams are announced later in the week we will be sure to update you. Please check in with us as we dig deeper into other markets.

Josh Adams has had a fine World Cup with five tries to his name (level top) – he is priced at 1.91 in the anytime try-scorer market.

Wales team has yet to be announced.

josh adams
Josh Adams has been in incredible form scoring 5 tries at the World Cup thus far (Getty Images)

South Africa Form 

South Africa cruised through the pool phase after an early loss to New Zealand and won their quarter final against Japan 26-3 at the Tokyo Stadium. The score does not tell the full story as late tries hides the fact that the Springboks were poor on the night.

That said, New Zealand are the only side to beat South Africa in 2019. This will be their first clash against Wales though, a team who has beaten then in their last four meetings.

South Africa are surprisingly short favourites at 1.36. That doesn’t represent value while the handicap is drawn at seven points. They are paying evens to cover the -7 handicap which I think is exceptionally risky considering recent results and form.

South Africa News

We will keep you updated on all the latest team news as the week goes on. Makazole Mapimpi is has scored five tries at the World Cup (level top) and is valued at 1.91 in the anytime try-scorer market.

In a massive blow for the Springboks in-form winger Cheslin Kolbe has been ruled out through injury. Sbu Nkosi will however take his place, another man with a great try-scoring record.

South Africa team: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Sbu Nkosi, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.

Subs: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Steven Kitshoff, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Franco Mostert, 21 Francois Louw, 22 Herschel Jantjies, 23 Frans Steyn.

Wales vs South Africa Head to Head

Wales have won the last four matches against South Africa and five of the last six. Their last match in November 2018 ended 20-11 in favour of Wales at the Principality Stadium. The Springboks last victory came in a last-gasp quarter final win at the last World Cup.

Wales vs South Africa Betting Odds

South Africa are favourites at 1.36 for the outright win with Wales priced at an appetising 3.60. The handicap market represents value too with Wales valued at 2.00 to cover +7 points and South Africa -7 at the same odds.

The two leading try-scorers at the World Cup Josh Adams (Wales) and Makazole Mapimpi (South Africa) are both priced at 1.91 in the anytime try-scorer market. 

Wales vs South Africa Match Up

Wales and South Africa both enjoy forward dominance and are very similar in the way they approach the game. Another huge match-up between the two packs can be expected.

Faf de Klerk dictates everything South Africa does from scrum-half so shutting him down will be crucial for Wales. These two have played out some tight contests so expect Dan Biggar and Handre Pollard’s kicking boots to do a lot of work.

makazole mapimpi
Makazole Mapimpi has scored is the World Cup leading try-scorer alongside Josh Adams (Getty Images)

Wales vs South Africa Key Statistics

  • Wales have won their last four matches against South Africa.
  • Wales have covered the +7 handicap in their 2 previous World Cup defeats to South Africa.
  • South Africa’s last 2 victories over Wales have been by 4 and 1 point respectively.
  • South Africa’s Makazole Mapimpi has scored 5 tries at the World Cup (level top try-scorer).
  • In 5 of the last 7 matches the losing side has finished within seven points between these two.

Where will Wales vs South Africa be played?

Wales will play South Africa at the Yokohama International Stadium in Yokohama, Japan.

When will Wales vs South Africa be played?

Wales will play South Africa on Sunday 27 October 2019 at 10:00 CET.

Have Wales ever beaten the Springboks at the World Cup?

No. They met in 2011 and 2015 with the Springboks winning narrowly on each occasion.

When last did South Africa win the Rugby World Cup?

The last won it in Paris, 2007. Previous to that they won their home World Cup in 1995.


Wales have won their last four matches against South Africa so I'm backing them to cover the +7 handicap at 2.00. The value is stacked with Wales at 3.60 for an outright win too.

Take advantage of the bet365 Rugby World Cup Early Payout promotion. Sign up to bet365 using the bonus code NEWBONUS and get paid out if the team you back goes 15 points ahead at any stage in the match.

Best Bet: Wales +7 Handicap @ 2.00 at betway - 5 Units
Value Bet: Wales Win @ 3.60 at betway - 2 Units

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