Scotland v Irleland 6 Nations Match Preview with Sunday Morning team news

Head coach Gregor Townsend has made three changes to his squad. Tom Jordan comes in at inside centre, forming a new midfield pairing with Huw Jones, who was outstanding in the opening match. The back three remains unchanged, with Blair Kinghorn at full-back, and Darcy Graham and Duhan van der Merwe on the wings. Finn Russell co-captains the team from fly-half, alongside scrum-half Ben White. In the forwards, Rory Sutherland starts at loosehead prop, and Jack Dempsey moves into the number 8 role, pushing Matt Fagerson to blindside flanker.

A significant tactical shift is Scotland opting for a 6-2 bench split, signaling their intent to counter Ireland’s physicality in the latter stages.

Interim head coach Simon Easterby makes some adjustments to his side. Peter O’Mahony returns at blindside flanker, bringing his leadership and experience into the pack. Robbie Henshaw starts at outside centre, forming a powerful midfield duo with Bundee Aki. Winger Mack Hansen, who faced a hamstring scare, has been declared fit and will start alongside James Lowe and Hugo Keenan in the back three.

The fly-half role remains with Sam Prendergast despite his mixed performance last week, with Jack Crowley named on the bench. Ireland’s pack remains formidable, with Caelan Doris leading from number 8. A significant boost comes with Dan Sheehan’s return to the bench, providing world-class cover at hooker.

Both teams enter this clash on the back of winning starts to their Six Nations campaigns. Scotland opened with a solid win against Italy, demonstrating attacking intent but leaving some defensive questions unanswered. Ireland overcame England in Dublin, showing resilience after a slow start.

Scotland have won five of their last six home matches, including victories over England and Australia. However, they have consistently struggled against Ireland, losing their last ten encounters. The last time Scotland defeated Ireland was in 2017, and since then, Ireland have dominated this fixture, often winning by comfortable margins. However, last year’s Six Nations meeting was much closer than expected, with Ireland scraping a narrow victory.

The historical Six Nations record also leans heavily in Ireland’s favor, with only a handful of Scottish wins in the past 25 years. However, Scotland have a history of breaking losing streaks at Murrayfield, having done so against England in recent seasons.

Expect Scotland to start aggressively, as they did in their opening match. Finn Russell will dictate play, looking to bring his wingers into the game with cross-kicks and wide plays. Scotland will aim for quick ruck ball to prevent Ireland from setting their defensive line, with Rory Darge and Jack Dempsey crucial in the breakdown battle.

Scotland’s lineout has been strong, but facing Peter O’Mahony will test their consistency. Their biggest challenge will be slowing Ireland’s structured attack without conceding penalties. If they can keep Ireland’s phase play contained and force turnovers, they could exploit space on the counter.

Ireland will stick to their tried-and-tested formula: structured rugby with clinical finishing. Expect them to control possession early, using their forward carriers like Doris and O’Mahony to win the gainline. If they dominate the collisions, they will dictate the tempo.

Sam Prendergast’s composure at fly-half will be key. He has a strong tactical kicking game, and Ireland may look to turn Scotland’s wingers with deep kicks to pin them back. Defensively, Ireland will stay disciplined, ensuring they don’t give Finn Russell and Scotland’s backs easy opportunities.

A major strength for Ireland will be their ability to grind down opponents. If they absorb Scotland’s early energy, their depth off the bench could prove decisive in the final 20 minutes.

The forecast for Edinburgh suggests a cold and mostly dry afternoon, with temperatures around 5–6°C. Wind may be a factor, potentially affecting long-range kicking and high balls. Handling might be tricky in the cold, and early nerves could result in knock-ons or fumbles. Overall, the conditions should allow for expansive rugby, with both teams able to execute their game plans without significant weather disruption.

Ireland are clear favorites, with bookmakers giving them around a 70% chance of victory. Their dominant record against Scotland justifies this, but Scotland’s home advantage and strong form at Murrayfield mean an upset isn’t impossible.

Best Bet: Ireland to win, though the odds are short. For better value, look at winning margin bets.

The handicap is set at Ireland -6 points, meaning Ireland must win by 7 or more for this bet to cash.

Ireland -6: Ireland have covered similar spreads against Scotland in recent years, and their bench strength could allow them to pull away late.

Scotland +6: If you believe Scotland will keep it close, this is a strong play. Scotland have played Ireland tight in recent fixtures at Murrayfield.

Best Bet: Slight lean toward Ireland -6, but if you expect a one-score game, Scotland +6 offers solid value.

The total points line is around 43.5 points.

Over 43.5: If both teams play attacking rugby, this total could be surpassed. Scotland’s backline and Ireland’s structured attack provide potential for multiple tries.

Under 43.5: Recent matchups suggest a more tactical, lower-scoring affair, especially if Scotland struggle to break Ireland’s defense.

Best Bet: Slight lean towards the under, considering previous head-to-head encounters.

James Lowe (Ireland): A consistent try-scorer with strong finishing ability.

Duhan van der Merwe (Scotland): Scotland’s biggest attacking weapon, capable of scoring from anywhere.

Huw Jones (Scotland): In excellent form and regularly finds gaps in the defense.

Rónan Kelleher (Ireland): Ireland’s lineout maul could lead to an early try for their hooker.

Best Bet: James Lowe or Huw Jones for value.

Duhan van der Merwe (Scotland): If Scotland score, he is their most likely finisher.

Bundee Aki (Ireland): In great scoring form and powerful in contact.

Caelan Doris (Ireland): A potential try-scorer from close range.

Best Bet: Van der Merwe or Aki for strong value.

Ireland HT / Ireland FT: If you expect a dominant performance, this is a strong pick.

Scotland HT / Ireland FT: Scotland often start fast but struggle to maintain it. This offers great value if you expect a second-half Ireland surge.

Best Bet: Scotland HT / Ireland FT for a riskier, high-reward bet.

Ireland 1-12 points: A close Ireland win is the most probable outcome.

Scotland 1-12 points: If Scotland win, it’s unlikely to be a blowout.

Ireland 13+: If Ireland pull away in the second half.

Best Bet: Ireland 1-12 points for the best balance of value and probability.

Ireland are deserved favorites, but Scotland have the ability to push them close at Murrayfield. The key battle will be in the breakdown, and if Scotland can disrupt Ireland’s rhythm, they have a shot at an upset. However, Ireland’s depth and ability to close out games make them the more reliable bet.