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France vs Wales Predictions & Tips - Defiant Wales backed in handicap market

ralph-staniforth
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Last updated: 30 Jan 2025
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Ralph Staniforth 30 Jan 2025
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  • France are favorites against Wales with past victories boosting confidence.
  • Wales are facing a 12-match losing streak, not in the top 10 rankings.
  • Wales backed to get within 26 points of the French.
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France vs New Zealand rugby November 2024
France to win by less than 26 points (Getty Images)

France vs Wales Predictions


France are huge favourites for a big win in Paris on Friday night and they have every right to be confident. Wales have been atrocious since the 2023 Rugby World Cup, failing to win any of their last 12 games.
  • France vs Wales Predictions
  • Head to Head
  • France Form
  • France Injuries & Team News
  • Wales Form
  • Wales Injuries & Team News

However, this is the opening game of the season, so France are unlikely to be at their fluent best. I think there is value on a Wales +26 bet.

  • France have won 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • France have won their last 6 matches against Wales.
  • Wales have lost their last 12 matches. 

Head to Head


France have won their last six matches against Wales with the last Welsh win coming back in 2019 during the Rugby World Cup.

France Form


France had a pretty average Six Nations campaign in 2024 where they lost 38-17 at home to Ireland. That put them on the back-foot before they narrowly beat Scotland, drew at home against Italy and struggled past England at home.

They drew 1-1 in a two-match series in June last year in Argentina with a weakened squad. On the end-of-year tour of the Southern Hemisphere sides, France once again picked up some form.

They thrashed Japan before holding New Zealand at bay with a 30-29 win. A week later France beat Argentina 37-23, although the game was perhaps closer than the score suggests.

France Injuries & Team News


The big news for France is the return of Antoine du Pont who took off last year to focus on sevens and the Olympics.

Ramos; Attissogbe, Barassi, Moefana, Bielle Biarrey; Ntamack, Dupont; Gros, Mauvaka, Atonio, Roumat, Meafou, Cros, Boudehent, Alldritt.

Replacements: Marchand, Baille, Colombe, Guillard, Auradou, Jegou, Le Garrec, Gailleton.

Wales Form


Wales are on a 12-match losing streak and are no longer in the top 10 of the world rankings. They need a serious shift in their form otherwise it could get even darker for them.

The last time Wales won a game was during the group stage of the 2023 Rugby World Cup. Last year they lost all five Six Nations games, finishing at the bottom of the table.

The proceeded to lose twice in Australia during their mid-year tour before going down to Fiji, Australia and South Africa in November 2024.

Wales Injuries & Team News


Liam Williams; Tom Rogers, Owen Watkin, Nick Tompkins, Josh Adams; Ben Thomas, Tomos Williams; Gareth Thomas, Evan Lloyd, Henry Thomas, Will Rowlands, Dafydd Jenkins, James Botham, Jac Morgan (captain), Aaron Wainwright.

Replacements: Elliot Dee, Nicky Smith, Keiron Assiratti, Freddie Thomas, Tommy Reffell, Rhodri Williams, Dan Edwards, Blair Murray.

Verdict

France should win comfortably on home soil, but I am backing Wales to get within the 26-point handicap.

Best Bet1: Wales +26 Handicap @10/11 at 10bet - 5 Units
Wales +26
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