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Italy vs Wales Predictions & Tips - Wales backed to smash Italy in Six Nations

  • Italy vs Wales predictions for Saturday’s Six Nations fixture
  • Match is being played at 14:15 GMT at the Olimpico Stadium in Rome
  • Wales have won all 3 Six Nations matches and currently top the table
  • I am backing Wales to win by more than 25 points
  • Preview, predictions, stats & team news
Wales vs Italy rugby
Wales have won their last three matches and top the Six Nations table (Getty Images)
Ralph Staniforth 12 Mar 2021
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Italy vs Wales Predictions


Wales should be far too strong for Italy in Rome. Italy have lost all three matches comfortably while Wales are chasing the Six Nations title. My best bet is for Wales to win by more than 25 points.

  • Italy have lost by 40 & 38 points in their last 2 home matches.
  • Wales have won their last 3 matches.
  • Wales have won their last 2 matches by 42 & 20 points against Italy.
  • Wales have won their last 15 matches against Italy.

Head to Head


Wales have won their last 15 matches against Italy. They met twice in 2020 with Wales winning 42-0 during the 2020 Six Nations and 38-18 with a weakened team in the 2020 Autumn Nations Cup.

Italy Form


Italy have struggled to compete in the Six Nations in recent years bar the odd good performance. This season has been one of their worst of recent times, losing all three matches comfortably.

Franco Smith’s side kicked off their campaign with a home 50-10 defeat to France before losing 41-18 in England. It didn’t get any better as Italy lost 48-10 to Ireland at home in their last match.

There are mitigating circumstances with the amount of youngsters being brought through this season. That won’t change this coming weekend but they will need to at least compete in the set pieces in order to avoid another thrashing.

Italy Injuries & Team News


Italy have no reported injury concerns and will likely go into this match close to unchanged. It is unlikely that Franco Smith will back-out of the plan to give younger players a run this season.

Wales Form


Wales sit top of the Six Nations table on 14 points after winning their opening three matches. That is quite the turnaround from last season where Wales only managed one victory in the tournament.

Wayne Pivac’s side have certainly had the rub of the green but they have made it count. On the opening weekend, Wales beat Ireland 21-16 at home. The visitors had the lead for most of the match until a red card allowed Wales back into it.

Wales took advantage of another red card the following weekend as they beat Scotland 25-24 at Murrayfield. In their last match, Wales thumped England 40-24 at home.

This time there were two refereeing errors that handed Wales two tries, however they were good value for the win. The Welsh will be full of confidence but with France breathing down their necks, they cannot slip up against Italy.

Wales Injuries & Team News


Cory Hill comes into the second-row to partner captain, Alun Wyn Jones for this encounter. The rest of the forward pack remains unchanged.

There is one change in the backline with scrumhalf, Gareth Davies coming into the side to partner flyhalf, Dan Biggar.

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Verdict

Wales are unbeaten in the 2021 Six Nations while Italy have suffered three heavy defeats. I'm backing Wales to inflict another big defeat by covering the -25 handicap.

Best Bet: Wales -25 Handicap Handicap @100.00 at BetMGM - 3 Units

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