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Scotland vs Italy Predictions & Tips - Scotland to thrash Italy at Murrayfield

  • Scotland vs Italy predictions for Saturday’s Six Nations match
  • Fixture is being played at 14:15 GMT at Murrayfield
  • Italy have lost by more than 27 points in 3 of their last 4 matches
  • I am tipping Scotland to cover the -27 point handicap on home soil
  • Stats, preview, predictions & team news
Scotland vs Italy six nations
Scotland have won their last nine matches against Italy (Getty images)
Ralph Staniforth 18 Mar 2021
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Scotland vs Italy Predictions


Scotland are out of the running for the title but will want to finish on a high. Every team bar England have beaten Italy by more than 27 points in the 2021 Six Nations. My best bet is for Scotland to cover the -27 point handicap.

  • Scotland have won their last 9 matches against Italy.
  • Scotland have conceded just 27 points in their last 3 home matches against Italy.
  • Italy have lost 11 of their last 12 matches.
  • Italy have lost by 40, 23, 38 & 41 points in their last 4 matches.

Head to Head


Scotland have won their last nine matches against Italy. They met twice in 2020 with Scotland winning 17-0 during the 2020 Six Nations and 28-17 in the 2020 Autumn Nations Cup. Both matches were played in Italy.

Scotland Form


Scotland have been good during the 2021 Six Nations but they have not had much luck. Going into the final scheduled match, they have only managed one victory from their opening three matches.

Scotland’s week three fixture against France was postponed and no date has been set for the match as yet. The Scots are however out of contention for the title but will want to end on a high.

After a historical 11-6 away win over England on the opening weekend, Scotland lost 25-24 at home to Wales. That was despite dominating the match until they had to play with 14 men after a red card was issued.

This past weekend, Scotland lost 27-24 at home to Ireland. It was another match that the Scots will believe they should have won.

Scotland Injuries & Team News


Scotland head coach, Gregor Townsend has made six changes to his starting lineup to face Italy.

Flyhalf, Finn Russell has not had enough time to recover from concussion protocols so Stuart Hogg will start in the number 10 jersey.

A new-look front-row will also appear with David Cherry, Rory Sutherland and Zander Fagerson all getting the nod to start.

Sean Maitland shifts to fullback with Hogg starting at flyhalf.

Italy Form


Italy have been uninspiring in the 2021 Six Nations. This has perhaps been their worst season over the last five years.

Italy are perennial bottom feeders in the Six Nations but the losing margins have been huge this season. They lost 50-10 to France, 41-18 to England, 48-10 to Ireland and 48-7 to Wales in their last match.

Going into this fixture, Italy coach, Franco Smith will hope to put in some sort of performance. It is however difficult to see them turn around the recent run of results.

Italy Injuries & Team News


Franco Smith looks set to stick with a similar team to the one that started last weekend. They are building a young squad, and while it is coming at the cost of some poor results, they will stick with it for the last match.

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Verdict

Italy are in the midst of a horror Six Nations campaign where they have been comprehensively beaten by every other side. This match looks no different and Scotland are tipped to win by more than 27 points.

Best Bet: Scotland -27 Handicap Handicap @100.00 at BetMGM - 3 Units

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