Chiefs vs Reds Predictions & Tips - Reds can scare Chiefs in Hamilton

By Ralph Staniforth

08 Jun 2023

Ralph Staniforth 08 Jun 2023

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Watch the Chiefs vs Reds in Super Rugby on Saturday (05:35 BST)
Hosts have won 13 of their 14 games this season
Can the Reds surprise the Chiefs again?

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Reds beat the Chiefs earlier this season, the only side to do that (Getty Images)

Chiefs vs Reds Predictions

The Reds were the only side to beat the Chiefs this entire season, and they also managed to do it in Hamilton. It is hard to imagine lightning striking twice though, despite the Reds having a good record in Hamilton.

Chiefs vs Reds Predictions
Head to Head
Chiefs Form
Chiefs Injuries & Team News
Reds Form
Reds Injuries & Team News

However, despite the Reds poor form, they tend to do well against the Chiefs. So while I foresee a home win, I am backing the Reds to get within the 19-point handicap.

Chiefs have won 13 of their last 14 matches.
Chiefs finished top of the Super Rugby table by 11 points.
Reds have won 4 of their last 6 away matches against the Chiefs.
Reds beat the Chiefs 25-22 earlier this season.

Head to Head

Chiefs have been victorious in six of their last 10 fixtures against the Queensland Reds.

Chiefs Form

The Chiefs have been by far the best team in Super Rugby this season, winning 13 of their 14 round robin matches. What makes this clash interesting is that the Chiefs only defeat of the season came at home to the Reds.

The Hamilton-based outfit wasted no time bouncing back from that defeat, winning their last three games with relative ease. The Chiefs have beaten all comers this season and are clear favourites to claim the title.

Knockout games can have a funny effect on teams, and given what the Reds managed a month ago, this might not be straightforward. However, we will do well to remember that the Chiefs did rest a few star players for that game.

Chiefs Injuries & Team News

Chiefs (1-15): Aidan Ross, Samisoni Taukei'aho, John Ryan, Brodie Retallick, Josh Lord, Samipeni Finau, Sam Cane (co-c) Luke Jacobson, Brad Weber (co-c), Damian McKenzie, Etene Nanai-Seturo, Rameka Poihipi, Anton Lienert-Brown, Emoni Narawa, Shaun Stevenson

Subs: Bradley Slater, Ollie Norris, George Dyer, Naitoa Ah Kuoi, Samipeni Finau, Cortez Ratima, Josh Ioane, Daniel Rona

Reds Form

The Reds have endured a strange season to date. Despite qualifying in eighth place for the playoffs, it will probably be seen as a disappointing season. Victory against the Chiefs can however quickly change that narrative.

The Queensland side quite incredibly beat the Chiefs 25-22 away from home a month ago. It was a huge upset, albeit against a slightly weakened Chiefs side. However, while you’d imagine that would give the Reds confidence, they have lost their three matches since that victory.

The Reds lost to the Blues, Highlanders and finally got smashed by Fijian Drua last weekend. It is quite fortunate that the Reds remained in eighth as other results happened to fall in place for them.

Reds Injuries & Team News

Reds (1-15): Peni Ravai, Matt Faessler, Sef Fa'agase, Angus Blyth, Ryan Smith, Seru Uru, Fraser McReight, Harry Wilson, Tate McDermott (c), Tom Lynagh, Josh Flook, James O'Connor, Filipo Daugunu, Suliasi Vunivalu, Jock Campbell

Subs: Richie Asiata, Dane Zander, Zane Nonggorr, Lopeti Faifua, Jake Upfield, Kalani Thomas, Lawson Creighton, Taj Annan

Verdict

Chiefs v Reds

While I believe the Chiefs will progress, the Reds are the bogey team for the table toppers. I can see the visitors getting within 19 point in this one.

Reds +19

Handicap

@10/11 - 3 Units

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