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Rebels vs Reds Predictions & Tips - Reds tipped for narrow win in Melbourne

  • Rebels vs Reds predictions for Saturday’s Super Rugby AU fixture
  • Match is being played at 09:45 BST at the AAMI Park
  • Rebels have the best defence in Super Rugby AU but have only scored 5 tries in 4 matches
  • I am backing the Reds to win by 12 or less points
  • Preview, predictions, stats & team news
Rebels vs Reds
Reds beat the Rebels 23-21 in their last match (Getty Images)
Ralph Staniforth 02 Apr 2021
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Rebels vs Reds Predictions


Much like the last time these two met, this should be a very close encounter. It could go either way but the Reds are unbeaten so I’m backing them to win by 12 or less points.

  • Rebels have won their last 2 matches.
  • Rebels have lost by less than 12 points or won in 10 of their last 11 matches against the Reds.
  • Rebels have conceded the least points (71) in 2021 Super Rugby AU.
  • Reds have won 3 of their last 4 matches by 2, 2 & 7 points.
  • Reds have won 3 of their last 4 matches against the Rebels (1 draw).
  • Reds beat the Rebels 23-21 in their last match.
  • Reds have won their last 5 matches.

Head to Head


Reds have won five of their last seven matches against the Rebels. They last met earlier in the 2021 Super Rugby AU competition where the Reds won 23-21 at home.

Rebels Form


Rebels are third on the Super Rugby AU table on 10 points after four matches. After losing their opening two matches, the Rebels have bounced back to win their next two.

In the opening two rounds the Rebels faced the two strongest sides in the Reds and Brumbies away from home. On both occasions they came up just short with a 23-21 defeat at the Reds and a 27-24 loss in Canberra against the Brumbies.

In what was perhaps the Rebels worst display of the season so far, they beat the Western Force 10-7. Last week the Waratahs came to visit and the Rebels dismantled them 33-14. It was 33-0 until the final 10 minutes when the Rebels concentration dropped. 

Rebels Injuries & Team News


There is one change to the Rebels backline which sees Frank Lomani come in at right wing for Lachie Anderson.

Among the forwards, James Hanson makes way at hooker for Jordan Uelese who scored a try off a bench in the last match.

Reds Form


The Reds sit atop of the Super Rugby AU table, unbeaten in their opening five matches. They have 23 points, 13 clear of the third placed Rebels.

In round one the Reds smashed the Waratahs 41-7 before narrowly beating the Rebels 23-21 at home. After a week off the Queensland-based outfit defeated the Brumbies 40-38 in Canberra in what was a major upset.

Another narrow win followed as they struggled across the line in a 26-19 win over the Western Force. Last week was the start of the second round of fixtures and the Reds once again dominated the Waratahs in a 46-14 win.

Reds Injuries & Team News


Bryce Hegarty starts at fullback this week in place of Jock Campbell. Jordan Petaia shifts from outside centre to wing with Hamish Stewart coming in at centre.

At lock, Ryan Smith comes in for Angus Blyth while Dane Zander makes way for Feao Fotuaika at prop.

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Verdict

The Reds have won their five matches this season. All their matches other than the two against the Waratahs have ended in victories by less than 12 points. I am tipping them to win here by 1-12 points.

Best Bet: Reds by 1-12 Points Winning Margin @150.00 at BetMGM - 3 Units

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