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Rebels vs Western Force Predictions & Tips - Tight match expected in Melbourne

  • Rebels vs Western Force predictions for Friday’s Super Rugby AU fixture
  • Match is being played at 12:45 BST at the AAMI Park
  • Rebels have scored the least points (115) in Super Rugby AU
  • I am backing the Western Force to lose by less than nine points
  • Preview, predictions, stats & team news
Western Force vs Rebels
Rebels beat the Western Force 10-7 in their clash earlier this season (Getty images)
Ralph Staniforth 08 Apr 2021
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Rebels vs Western Force Predictions


The Rebels and Western Force have been defensively very good this season but both are struggling to score tries. This should be another low scoring match between the two sides where I’m backing the Force to finish within nine points.

  • Rebels have won by a margin less than 9 in 11 of their last 12 wins over the Western Force.
  • Rebels have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
  • Rebels beat the Western Force 10-7 in their last match.
  • Western Force have not lost by more than 7 points in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Western Force have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.

Head to Head


Rebels hold a 12-4 advantage over the Western Force in their last 16 matches. When they met earlier this season the Rebels won 10-7 in Perth.

Rebels Form


The Rebels are third on the Super Rugby AU table, 14 points adrift of the second placed Brumbies. They have however played a game less.

With the season fast moving towards a conclusion, the Rebels chances of reaching the final is all but over. There will need to be a dramatic turnaround in form for them to finish in the top two.

Last week the Rebels had a great chance to narrow the margin when they welcomed the Reds to Melbourne. Unfortunately a nightmare start saw the Reds race into an early lead from which the Rebels never recovered. 

The 44-19 home defeat was the Rebels worst performance of the season. Prior to that, the Rebels beat the Western Force and Waratahs but have struggled against the teams above them. 

Rebels Injuries & Team News


The Rebels are sticking with Frank Lomani at wing after his stellar performance last weekend. He was one of the few highlights for them.

Reece Hodge returns to fullback with Lewis Holland coming in at inside centre. Tom Pincus finds himself on the bench this weekend.

At hooker, Jordan Uelese makes way for James Hanson.

Western Force Form


The Western Force are fourth on the table, four points off the Rebels. A bonus point win in Melbourne will put the Force above the Rebels in third.

While the Force have only managed one win this season, they will carry some confidence into this fixture. When they last met the Rebels beat them 10-7 in what can only be described as a terrible game of rugby.

Last week the Western Force had a bye, prior to which they suffered a 42-14 away defeat to the Brumbies. The week before the Force were impressive, going down 26-19 to a much-fancied Reds outfit.

Western Force Injuries & Team News


The Western Force have opted to change things up a bit this weekend. Domingo Miotti comes in at flyhalf to partner fellow Argentine, Tomas Cubelli at scrumhalf. Jordan Olowofela starts on the left wing while Kyle Godwin is in at inside centre.

There are changes among the forward pack as well. Tomas Lezana starts at the back of the scrum while Jeremy Thrush comes in for Sitaleki Timani at lock.

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Verdict

These two rivals have a history of very tight affairs with their match earlier this season ending 10-7 to the Rebels. I'm backing the Western Force with a +9 handicap while victory for the visitors isn't out of the question.

Best Bet: Force +9 Handicap Handicap Market @-105.26 at BetMGM - 3 Units
Value Bet: Force Win Full Time Result @260.00 at bet365 Sport NJ - 1 Unit

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