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Casper Ruud vs Jack Draper Live Stream & Tips - Draper the favorite in Madrid but Ruud’s clay pedigree counts

Freetips staff

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Last updated: 04 May 2025

Freetips staff 04 May 2025

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Jack Draper shows outstanding form but faces his first clay final.
Casper Ruud, a clay specialist, brings experience with 11 titles.
Ruud might be the wiser bet, potentially taking a set or winning in three.

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Casper Ruud is 0-2 in Masters Final. (credit: Getty)

Casper Ruud vs Jack Draper Preview

Jack Draper's current level and form are outstanding. Right now, he genuinely looks like the third-best player in the world, behind only Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz.

However, from a betting standpoint, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to back Draper at such short odds in his first-ever clay final. He’s going up against a player who has 11 titles on this surface and will be playing in his 18th career final. Ruud has earned a reputation as one of the most consistent clay-court performers of this decade.

While it’s understandable that Draper is starting off as the favorite, the value seems to lie on Ruud’s side. With his big-match experience and comfort on clay, I expect him to put in a highly competitive performance. There’s a strong case to be made for him taking at least a set, and a small play on Ruud winning in three sets could be worth a shot.

Casper Ruud vs Jack Draper Preview
Head-to-Head
Casper Ruud Overview
Casper Ruud Form
Jack Draper Overview
Jack Draper Form

Head-to-Head

This will be the pair's first meeting.

Casper Ruud Overview

Current rank: 15
Career high rank: 2
ELO rank: 22
Season record: 20–6
Season record on clay: 8–2
Career record on clay: 247–110
Clay final record: 11–6
Masters final record: 0–2

Casper Ruud Form

Casper Ruud looked completely done early in his semifinal. He needed medical attention for a chest issue and quickly went down a break. From there, though, he turned things around in impressive fashion, beating the in-form Francisco Cerundolo 6-4, 7-5.

Luck was definitely on his side in that match. Ruud faced 18 break point chances, twice as many as Cerundolo, but saved 15 of them. Many of those came at crucial moments that could have changed the outcome.

In fact, luck has followed him throughout this tournament. Despite facing 30 break points across five matches, he has not lost a single set. That includes wins over some big names like Taylor Fritz, Daniil Medvedev, and Francisco Cerundolo.

Now Ruud is hoping his good fortune holds out for one more match day in Madrid. He is chasing the biggest title of his career.

Although he has 12 ATP titles and once reached No. 2 in the rankings back in 2022, he still hasn’t won a Masters or Grand Slam title. That’s a tough stat for a player of his caliber.

So far, Ruud has played in seven championship matches at Masters and Grand Slam events. He has lost all of them.

To be fair, those losses came against some of the best in the world, including Carlos Alcaraz (twice), Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Jack Draper Overview

Current rank: 6
Career high rank: 6
ELO rank: 5
Season record: 19–4
Season record on clay: 6–1
Career record on clay: 30–20
Clay final record: 0–0
Masters final record: 1–0
Form against top-20 players: 6–0 in the last six matches

Jack Draper Form

Like his opponent Casper Ruud, Jack Draper has also maintained a perfect set record on his way to the Madrid Masters final. But the way he did it was completely different, driven by control, conviction, and dominance.

Draper faced high-quality and in-form opponents throughout this campaign, yet he only gave up more than four games in a set twice. That happened in the third round against Matteo Berrettini and in the semifinals against Lorenzo Musetti.

It took Draper just one try to win a big title, as he reached the final at the Indian Wells Masters earlier this year and dominated Holger Rune to claim the biggest win of his career.

While that run in Indian Wells was special and earned him a debut in the top 10, this campaign in Madrid is even more remarkable, especially given his limited experience and exposure to clay, which is his least favorite surface.

This run to the final has already secured Draper a new career-high ranking of No. 5, surpassing former world No. 1 Novak Djokovic. He is now only the second left-hander in this century, after Rafael Nadal, to reach the top 5.

On Sunday, Draper will become the first British player to compete for the title at the Madrid Masters since former world No. 1 Andy Murray, who famously beat Nadal in straight sets ten years ago in the 2015 final.

Verdict

Casper Ruud v Jack Draper

Jack Draper is in great form, but betting on him at short odds in his first clay final doesn't seem wise. He's up against Casper Ruud, a clay specialist with 11 titles and 17 finals under his belt.

Draper may be the favorite, but Ruud’s experience and clay pedigree make him the value bet. He could take a set and even win in three.

Yes

Ruud to win a set

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Yes

Player to lose first set and win

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