Grigor Dimitrov vs Jacob Fearnley Live Stream & Tips - Handicap and over markets in play as Dimitrov faces Fearnley in Madrid

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Last updated: 28 Apr 2025

Freetips staff 28 Apr 2025

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Fearnley faces Dimitrov with optimism, given Dimitrov's fitness issues.
Dimitrov's experience on clay is a key advantage despite recent struggles.
Betting trends favor handicap or over games markets due to match uncertainties.

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Grigor Dimitrov vs Jacob Fearnley Preview

Jacob Fearnley gets yet another opportunity during this clay swing to face an opponent who is not at full physical strength and could break down at any moment. He has every reason to approach this matchup with optimism.

However, that alone is not enough to justify backing the Brit. Even a Dimitrov operating at just 50 percent of his capabilities would likely have enough to win this matchup on clay, given how much more experienced and superior he is in these conditions.

The smarter play for this match would be to look at the handicap or over games markets, as neither player offers enough conviction to be confidently backed in the outright winner market.

Grigor Dimitrov vs Jacob Fearnley Preview
Head-to-Head
Grigor Dimitrov Overview
Grigor Dimitrov Form
Jacob Fearnley Overview
Jacob Fearnley Form

Head-to-Head

This will be the pair's first meeting.

Grigor Dimitrov Overview

Current rank: 16
Career-high rank: 3
ELO rank: 9
Season record: 13-7
Season record on clay: 4-1
Best Madrid result: Quarterfinals in 2015
Form against non-top-50 players on clay: 7-0 in the last seven matches

Grigor Dimitrov Form

Grigor Dimitrov needs some positive momentum at the Madrid Masters after the brutal 0-6, 0-6 loss he suffered at the hands of Alex de Minaur at the Monte Carlo Masters earlier this month.

He took the first step in the right direction by comfortably defeating the struggling Nicolas Jarry in straight sets during the opening round in Madrid.

That humiliating defeat in Monte Carlo definitely stalled his momentum, as up to that point, he had been the most consistent performer at Masters events this year. He will be looking to get back on track with a deep run in Madrid this week.

The win over Jarry marked Dimitrov's tenth victory at Masters tournaments in 2025. In fact, he was the first player to reach ten wins exclusively at Masters events this season.

Dimitrov began the year with a run to the Round of 16 at the Indian Wells Masters, then backed it up with a semifinal showing in Miami and a quarterfinal appearance in Monte Carlo.

Jacob Fearnley Overview

Current rank: 68
Career-high rank: 68
ELO rank: 60
Season record: 18-9
Season record on clay: 6-2
Career record against top-20 players: 1-4

Jacob Fearnley Form

Luck continues to favor Jacob Fearnley during this clay swing, as his latest opponent, Tomas Machac, was also dealing with physical issues.

That opened the door for Fearnley to add another valuable clay-court win to his record, coming back to win 1-6, 6-3, 6-2 in the second round.

Before 2025, the Brit had never played a professional match on clay. Yet he has already notched five wins this month, helped by a favorable draw that matched him against opponents who were either struggling physically or just as inexperienced on the surface as he is.

Given his lack of experience and exposure to clay, Fearnley probably never imagined that his first breakthrough at the Masters level would come on this surface, but that is exactly what has happened.

This marks his first-ever third-round appearance at a Masters event, and if he manages to reach the round of 16 in Madrid, he would move within touching distance of a debut inside the top 50.

Another surprise is that his maiden top-20 win also came on clay, defeating Tomas Machac in the second round. Before this tournament, Fearnley had been 0-4 against top-20 players.

Verdict

Grigor Dimitrov v Jacob Fearnley

Fearnley gets another chance on clay against an opponent who isn’t at full fitness, giving him a reason to stay optimistic. But even a half-strength Dimitrov has the experience and skills to win this matchup on clay.

The smart bet here is to focus on the handicap or over games markets, as neither player seems reliable enough to back outright in this one.

Over 8.5

Lowest Scoring Set Total

@17/20 - 1 Unit

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Fearnley +4.5

Handicap Games

@40/85 - 1 Unit

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