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Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Preview, Predictions & Betting Tips - Sabalenka to Win Third Straight Australian Open

john-eastwood
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Last updated: 23 Jan 2025
John Eastwood 23 Jan 2025
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  • Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Predictions & Betting Tips
  • Sabalenka has won her last 20 matches at the Australian Open
  • The World No.1 is backed to win a third straight title in Melbourne
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Aryna Sabalenka takes on Madison Keys in the 2025 Australian Open final (Getty)

Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Preview


Aryna Sabalenka is 11-0 this year and won three straight against Madison Keys. The World No.1 is a deserved favourite here and backed to win a third consecutive Australian Open title.
  • Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Preview
  • Stats
  • HTH
  • Aryna Sabalenka Stats
  • Aryna Sabalenka Form
  • Madison Keys Stats
  • Madison Keys Form

Stats


  • Aryna Sabalenka has won 33 of her last 36 matches.
  • Aryna Sabalenka has won her last 20 matches at the Australian Open.
  • Aryna Sabalenka has won her last 3 matches against Madison Keys.
  • Madison Keys is 4-15 against Top 3 players.

HTH


Aryna Sabalenka is 4-1 against Madison Keys.

Their previous meeting came at the 2024 China Open, Sabalenka winning 6-4 6-3 in the Round of 16.

Date
Tournament
Surface
Round
Winner
Score
Loser
25‑Sep‑2024 Beijing Hard R16 Aryna Sabalenka 6-4 6-3 Madison Keys
28‑Aug‑2023 US Open Hard SF Aryna Sabalenka 0-6 7-6 7-6 Madison Keys
3‑Jul‑2023 Wimbledon Grass QF Aryna Sabalenka 6-2 6-4 Madison Keys
14‑Jun‑2021 Berlin Grass R16 Madison Keys 6-4 1-6 7-5 Aryna Sabalenka
13‑Aug‑2018 Cincinnati Hard QF Aryna Sabalenka 6-3 6-4 Madison Keys

Aryna Sabalenka Stats


Nationality: Belarus
Age: 26 (5 May 1998)
Height: 5'11" (1.82m)
Plays: Right-Handed
World Ranking: 1
Career High: 1 (September 2023)
WTA Tour Titles: 18
2025 WTA Tour Titles: 1
Grand Slam Singles Titles: 3 (2023, 2024 Australian Open, 2024 US Open)
Australian Open Best Result: Winner (2023, 2024)

Aryna Sabalenka Form


Aryna Sabalenka won her second Australian Open last year and claimed titles at the Cincinnati Open, US Open and Wuhan Open.

The World No.1 started 2025 by winning the Brisbane International. She won her opening four matches in straight sets before coming back to beat Polina Kudermetova 4-6 6-3 6-2 in the final.

The Belarusian got through her first four matches at the Australian Open in straight sets, easing past Sloane Stephens, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, Clara Tauson and Mirra Andreeva.

Sabalenka broke the trend in the quarter-finals where she outlasted Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 6-2 2-6 6-3. She was back to her best in the semi-finals, overpowering Paula Badosa 6-4 6-2 after hitting 32 winners and 21 unforced errors.

Madison Keys Stats


Nationality: United States
Age: 29 (17 February 1995)
Height: 5'10" (1.78m)
Plays: Right-Handed
World Ranking: 14
Career High: 7 (October 2016)
WTA Tour Titles: 9
2025 WTA Tour Titles: 1
Grand Slam Singles Titles: 0
Australian Open Best Result: Semi-Finals (2015, 2022)

Madison Keys Form


Madison Keys reached the Madrid Open semi-finals last year before winning the title in Strasbourg. She began 2025 in Auckland where she suffered a quarter-final defeat to Clara Tauson. 

The World No.14 bounced back to win the Adelaide International, knocking out three Top 20 players on her way to the final where she beat Jessica Pegula in 3 sets.

The American beat Ann Li 6-4 7-5 at the Australian Open before defeating Elena Gabriela Ruse in 3 sets. She took out 10th seed Danielle Collins 6-4 6-4 and eliminated World No.7 Elena Rybakina 6-3 1-6 6-3.

Keys came through another tough test in the quarter-finals, coming from behind to beat Elina Svitolina 3-6 6-3 6-4. She repeated the feat in the semi-finals, saving one match point in a 5-7 6-1 7-6 victory over Iga Swiatek.

Verdict

Aryna Sabalenka is the clear World No.1 and on target for a third straight Australian Open title. Madison Keys has done well to reach the final, but Sabalenka should be too good in Melbourne.

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