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Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa Preview, Predictions & Betting Tips - Badosa to Push Sabalenka at the Australian Open

john-eastwood
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Last updated: 22 Jan 2025
John Eastwood 22 Jan 2025
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  • Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa Predictions & Betting Tips
  • Sabalenka has won her last 5 matches against Badosa
  • The World No.1 is backed to win again at the Australian Open
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Watch Paula Badosa take on Aryna Sabalenka at the Australian Open (Getty)

Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa Preview


Aryna Sabalenka is 10-0 this year and won five straight against Paula Badosa. The World No.1 is a deserved favourite here, my money on Sabalenka getting through in 5 sets.
  • Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa Preview
  • Stats
  • HTH
  • Aryna Sabalenka Stats
  • Aryna Sabalenka Form
  • Paula Badosa Stats
  • Paula Badosa Form

Stats


  • Aryna Sabalenka has gone over 20.5 games in 3 of her last 4 matches.
  • Aryna Sabalenka has saved 18/31 break points in her last 4 matches.
  • Aryna Sabalenka has won her last 5 matches against Paula Badosa.
  • Paula Badosa has gone over 21.5 games in 7 of her last 9 matches.
  • Paula Badosa has saved 15/23 break points in her last 4 matches.

HTH


Aryna Sabalenka is 5-2 against Paula Badosa, winning the last five encounters.

Their previous meeting came at the 2024 French Open, Sabalenka getting through 7-5 6-1 in the third round.

Aryna Sabalenka Stats


Nationality: Belarus
Age: 26 (5 May 1998)
Height: 5'11" (1.82m)
Plays: Right-Handed
World Ranking: 1
Career High: 1 (September 2023)
WTA Tour Titles: 18
2025 WTA Tour Titles: 1
Grand Slam Singles Titles: 3 (2023, 2024 Australian Open, 2024 US Open)
Australian Open Best Result: Winner (2023, 2024)

Aryna Sabalenka Form


Aryna Sabalenka won her second Australian Open title last year before suffering final defeats in Madrid and Rome. She bounced back by winning the Cincinnati Open, US Open and Wuhan Open.

The World No.1 started the season by winning the Brisbane International. She cruised through her opening four matches in straight sets and came back to beat Polina Kudermetova 4-6 6-3 6-2 in the final.

The Belarusian had a similar start at the Australian Open where she is aiming for a third straight title. She defeated Sloane Stephens, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, Clara Tauson and Mirra Andreeva in straight sets before beating Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 6-2 2-6 6-3.

Paula Badosa Stats


Nationality: Spain
Age: 27 (15 November 1997)
Height: 5'11" (1.80m)
Plays: Right-Handed
World Ranking: 12
Career High: 2 (April 2022)
WTA Tour Titles: 4
2025 WTA Tour Titles: 0
Grand Slam Singles Titles: 0
Australian Open Best Result: Fourth Round (2022)

Paula Badosa Form


Paula Badosa dropped out of the Top 100 in May but saw plenty of improvement on hard courts. She won the Washington Open and was consistent to end the season, reaching semi-finals in Cincinnati, Beijing and Ningbo.

The 27-year-old had a disappointing start to 2025, exiting early in Brisbane and Adelaide. 

The Spaniard had no problems in her opening two matches at the Australian Open, beating Xin Yu Wang and Talia Gibson in straight sets. She saved 13/17 break points in a 6-4 4-6 6-3 third round victory over Marta Kostyuk.

Badosa stopped the in-form Olga Danilovic in the fourth round, winning 6-1 7-6 in 80 minutes. She was a big outsider in the quarter-finals but upset the odds to beat World No.3 Coco Gauff 7-5 6-4. 

Verdict

Aryna Sabalenka has won all 10 matches this year and won her previous five encounters against Paula Badosa. The World No.1 can reach a third Australian Open final, but is likely to do it the hard way.

Best Bet1: Over 20.5 Games Total Games @8/11 at 10bet - 3 Units
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