Australian Open Men's Final Crypto Betting tips

This isn't the first finals matchup between Jannik and Daniil. In fact, the pair faced off in five ATP finals in 2023, with Jannik victorious in the final three to end the year. All five matches were on hard courts, so these players are well-acquainted with one another.

Sinner has been in top form this tournament, only losing his first set in the semis against Djokovic. However, it's worth noting that Novak's performance was subpar, with 55 uncharacteristic errors, which gifted the win to Sinner. Despite this, Sinner played brilliantly, protecting his serve and being patient to capitalizing on Novak's mistakes. He also demonstrated great mental strength, especially after failing to convert his first match point opportunity in the third set.

Medvedev, on the other hand, has been winning despite not being at his best throughout the tournament. He's played three five-set matches, showing signs of fatigue and difficulty with the heat. His performance has fluctuated, ranging from dominating to error-prone, but he managed to pull through each time with his experience and clutch shot-making.

Sinner has been the better player of the pair this week and should feel good stepping into his first Grand Slam final. If Jannik plays aggressively and confidently, he could very well dictate the match. However, Medvedev is known for making his opponents always hit the extra ball and be super consistent .

Best bet: Medvedev ML @ 3.39 & over 38.5

The market seems to be overvaluing two factors:

Djokovic wasn't at his best, rumored to be hampered by a wrist injury and a stomach bug. While that's not Sinner's fault, it's likely that Medvedev would have also had an easy time against that version of Novak. Considering the injuries, Zverev was undoubtedly the tougher semi-final opponent of the pair.

People are making much of Medvedev's five-setter in the semis compared to Sinner's four-set match. Though Medvedev's match against Zverev was more physically demanding, he was only on court for 1 hour longer and has had a full day off to recover. Medvedev is incredibly fit and has shown to manage his fatigue well in a match. In contrast, Sinner has had issues with endurance throughout his career in longer tournaments. This being his first Grand Slam final, the pressure of closing out a match against the consistent and clutch Medvedev will be immense.

While I do think Sinner should be the favorite and is likely to win, I see his chances to win at about 55-60% compared to the market's implied 71%. Thus, backing Medvedev at 3.3 (30% implied probability) seems to be a substantial edge. Betting on over 38.5 points anticipates a close, lengthy match, which I expect this to be.