ATP Hong Kong Winner Odds & Betting Tips - Top Seed Andrey Rublev the Favourite

John Eastwood

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Last updated: 31 Dec 2024

John Eastwood 31 Dec 2024

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The Hong Kong Open odds sees Andrey Rublev the favourite
Arthur Fils, Karen Khachanov & Lorenzo Musetti are in the mix
Can Musetti take advantage of a weaker side in the draw?

Lorenzo Musetti faces Gabriel Diallo in the second round (Getty)

Winner Odds

The Hong Kong Open is into the second round where the top four seeds enter the draw. Two seeds were knocked out in the first round - Brandon Nakashima and Luciano Darderi.

Andrey Rublev, Arthur Fils, Karen Khachanov and Lorenzo Musetti are all under 10.00 with Cameron Norrie, Juncheng Shang and Kei Nishikori all listed at 13.00.

Miomir Kecmanovic, Fabian Marozsan, Zizou Bergs and Lorenzo Sonego all have a chance at bigger odds.

The ATP 250 event is being played on outdoor hard courts and concludes on Sunday on 5 January 2025.

Odds from Stake and correct on 31 December 2024:

Player	Odds
Andrey Rublev	4.00
Arthur Fils	6.00
Karen Khachanov	7.00
Lorenzo Musetti	9.50
Cameron Norrie	13.00
Juncheng Shang	13.00
Kei Nishikori	13.00
Miomir Kecmanovic	17.00
Lorenzo Sonego	20.00
Gabriel Diallo	20.00
Nuno Borges	20.00
Zizou Bergs	21.00
Fabian Marozsan	23.00
Pedro Martinez	41.00
Alexandre Muller	41.00
Jaume Munar	51.00

Source: Stake

Analysis

Andrey Rublev is the only Top 15 player in the draw, won the Hong Kong Open last year and is the early favourite in 2025. The Russian had a poor end to the season, unable to reach a semi-final in his final nine events and has to be taken on trust.

Rublev needs to get past Fabian Marozsan in the second round to set up a likely clash against Juncheng Shang. He would meet Karen Khachanov, Kei Nishikori, Cameron Norrie or Lorenzo Sonego in the semi-finals.

Arthur Fils won two ATP Tour titles last year and became a Top 20 player in October. He was the favourite to win the ATP Next Gen Finals where defeats against Joao Fonseca and Learner Tien saw him dumped out in the group stage.

Fils faces a relatively easy run to the final if he can get past Zizou Bergs. He would face Miomir Kecmanovic or Alexandre Muller in the quarter-finals with Lorenzo Musetti or Nuno Borges the likely semi-finalists.

Karen Khachanov won two titles year without facing a Top 40 player in both victories. He is 34-84 against Top 20 players and competed in Hong Kong once, as the 2nd seed last year when we lost to Emil Ruusuvuori in his opening match.

The Russian faces a tough start against Kei Nishikori and would then take on Cameron Norrie or Lorenzo Sonego before a semi-final clash against Andrey Rublev.

Lorenzo Musetti reached three finals on every surface last year, losing on each occasion. He ended the season going 9-8 against Top 20 players and faces a presentable run to the semi-finals if he can defeat Gabriel Diallo and the winner of Nuno Borges vs Jaume Munar.

Cameron Norrie slipped out of the Top 50 last year, his best performance coming in his last event in Metz where he lost to Benjamin Bonzi in the final. The Brit defeated Learner Tien 6-3 7-5 in the first round in Hong Kong to set up a clash with Lorenzo Sonego.

Sonego had a sensational start in Hong Kong where he thrashed 6th seed Brandon Nakashima 7-6 6-3. He didn't give up a break point, winning 90% of his 1st serves and 74% of his 2nd serves.

I am backing the Italian to beat Norrie in the second round and set up a quarter-final clash against Karen Khachanov or Kei Nishikori. He could then face Rublev in a daunting route to the final.

Juncheng Shang, Kei Nishikori, Miomir Kecmanovic, Fabian Marozsan and Zizou Bergs all won in straight sets in the first round and will fancy their chances of an upset.

Seeds

Player	Country	Seed	Rank
Andrey Rublev	Russia	1	5
Lorenzo Musetti	Italy	2	16
Karen Khachanov	Russia	3	19
Arthur Fils	France	4	21
Nuno Borges	Portugal	5	36
Brandon Nakashima	USA	6	38
Pedro Martinez	Spain	7	43
Luciano Darderi	Italy	8	44

Verdict

This is a difficult one to predict with the top four seeds yet to play a match. I am happy to fade Arthur Fils in the bottom half of the draw which opens the door for Lorenzo Musetti to reach the final.

The top half is stacked with Andrey Rublev, Karen Khachanov and Juncheng Shang all favoured to win in the second round which includes Cameron Norrie vs Lorenzo Sonego.

I am going to begin with a wager on Lorenzo Musetti with a potential to hedge out later in the tournament.