2025 Italian Open Predictions & Betting Tips - Alexander Zverev to Win the Title in Rome

John Eastwood

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Last updated: 06 May 2025

John Eastwood 06 May 2025

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Jannik Sinner & Carlos Alcaraz are the favourites in Rome
Alexander Zverev, Jack Draper & Casper Ruud are in the mix
Get our best predictions and tips for the 2025 Italian Open

Alexander Zverev is the defending champion in Rome (Getty)

The 2025 Italian Open begins in Rome tomorrow with nine of the Top 10 players in men's tennis taking part. World No. 1 Jannik Sinner makes his return to action after a three month doping ban.

Alexander Zverev has won the event twice and is the defending champion. The only other former winner in Italy is Daniil Medvedev who beat Holger Rune in the 2023 final.

The remaining contenders include Carlos Alcaraz, Jack Draper and Casper Ruud. Let's go through the top five players in contention for the title and discuss their prospects of emerging victorious in 2025.

Top Contenders

Jannik Sinner (ATP Rank: 1 - Odds: 3.00)

Jannik Sinner was outstanding in 2024, winning the Australian Open and US Open alongside titles in Rotterdam, Miami, Halle, Shanghai, the ATP Finals and Davis Cup.

The World No.1 began the year by winning another Australian Open title but hasn't played since. He received a three-month ban after twice testing positive for clostebol, a banned anabolic steroid.

Carlos Alcaraz (ATP Rank: 3 - Odds: 3.60)

Carlos Alcaraz won the Rotterdam Open but didn’t reach another final on the hard court swing. The 21-year-old had a successful return to clay in Monte-Carlo where he won the title.

The Spaniard was on target for a third title in Barcelona before a surprise 7-6 6-2 defeat to Holger Rune in the final. He withdrew from the Madrid Open because of hamstring and groin concerns.

Alexander Zverev (ATP Rank: 2 - Odds: 12.00)

Alexander Zverev lost to Jannik Sinner in the Australian Open final, the German unable to get to another final before winning the title in Munich.

The World No.2 competed in Madrid, beating Roberto Bautista Agut and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina before a 7-5 6-3 loss against Francisco Cerundolo.

Jack Draper (ATP Rank: 5 - Odds: 17.00)

Jack Draper reached the final in Doha before winning the Indian Wells Masters to become a Top 10 player for the first time.

The Brit is coming off a great run in Madrid where he got past Matteo Berrettini, Tommy Paul and Lorenzo Musetti to reach the final. He was a heavy favourite and served for the first set, fading in a disappointing 7-5 3-6 6-4 defeat to Casper Ruud.

Casper Ruud (ATP Rank: 7 - Odds: 26.00)

Casper Ruud won nine of his opening ten matches this year, reaching the Dallas Open final where he lost to Denis Shapovalov. He didn't see any improvement on clay before winning the title in Madrid last week.

The Norwegian beat Sebastian Korda, Taylor Fritz, Daniil Medvedev and Francisco Cerundolo on his way to the final where he upset the odds, defeating Jack Draper in 3 sets.

Road to the final

Jannik Sinner should meet the in-form Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the third round and Francisco Cerundolo in the fourth round with Casper Ruud awaiting in the quarter-finals. Possible semi-final opponents include Taylor Fritz, Jakub Mensik, Tommy Paul and Alex de Minaur.

The bottom half of the draw sees Jack Draper and Holger Rune set to face off in the fourth round. The winner is likely to face Grigor Dimitrov or Carlos Alcaraz in the quarter-finals.

Lorenzo Musetti has relatively easy run to the quarter-finals where he is expected to meet Alexander Zverev.

2025 Italian Open Winner Odds

Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are the favorites with Alexander Zverev and Jack Draper next best. Odds from Stake and correct on 6 May 2025:

Player	Odds
Jannik Sinner	3.00
Carlos Alcaraz	3.60
Alexander Zverev	12.00
Jack Draper	17.00
Casper Ruud	26.00
Taylor Fritz	26.00
Holger Rune	29.00
Daniil Medvedev	29.00
Andrey Rublev	29.00
Alex De Minaur	34.00
Lorenzo Musetti	34.00
Arthur Fils	41.00
Stefanos Tsitsipas	41.00
Francsico Cerundolo	41.00
Matteo Berrettini	41.00
Joao Fonseca	41.00
Felix Auger Aliassime	51.00
Karen Khachanov	51.00
Tommy Paul	51.00
Matteo Arnaldi	67.00
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	67.00
Sebastian Korda	67.00
Zizou Bergs	81.00
Grigor Dimitrov	81.00
Hubert Hurkacz	81.00

Odds from Stake

Verdict

Jannik Sinner hasn't played in three months and Carlos Alcaraz comes to the event with injury concerns. Neither player has reached a semi-final in Rome.

Alexander Zverev has won two Italian Open titles, is the defending champion and should have few problems reaching the quarter-finals.

Casper Ruud loves playing on clay, won the title in Madrid last week and has reached three semi-finals in Rome. I am backing the Norwegian to meet Zverev in the final.

Alexander Zverev

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