Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini Live Stream & Preview - Sabalenka to overwhelm Paolini

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Last updated: 27 Mar 2025

Freetips staff 27 Mar 2025

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Sabalenka reaches first Miami Open semifinal without losing a set.
Paolini becomes the first Italian woman to reach Miami Open semifinals.
Sabalenka leads head-to-head 3-1, remains favorite despite Paolini's resilience.

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Aryna Sabalenka to overwhelm Paolini (credit: Getty)

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini Preview

Aryna Sabalenka continues her stellar run at the Miami Open, marching into her first semifinals at this event without losing a set.

Jasmine Paolini has also made history, becoming the first Italian woman to reach the Miami semifinals.

Sabalenka leads their head-to-head record 3-1 on tour level. She remains the red-hot favorite to extend her dominance over Paolini, even if the latter has a history of strongly fighting back in all of their matches.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini Preview
Head-to-Head
Aryna Sabalenka Overview
Aryna Sabalenka Form
Jasmine Paolini Overview
Jasmine Paolini Form

Head-to-Head

Year	Event	Surface	Round	Winner	Score
2024	WTA Finals	Hard	-	Sabalenka	6-3 7-5
2023	Beijing	Hard	R16	Sabalenka	6-4 7-6
2022	Indian Wells	Hard	R2	Paolini	2-6 6-3 6-3
2020	Linz	Hard	R1	Sabalenka	6-4 6-4
2017	Ilkley ITF	Grass	R1	Paolini	4-6 7-5 7-6

Aryna Sabalenka Overview

Current rank: 1
Career high rank: 1
ELO rank: 1
Season record: 21-4
Semifinal record: 10-2 in last 12
Previous best Miami result: Quarterfinal in 2021 and 2023

Aryna Sabalenka Form

Aryna Sabalenka has dominated the Miami Open, winning all her matches in straight sets.

Her campaign included a victory over ninth seed Zheng Qinwen in a rematch of the 2024 Australian Open final, preceded by a win over defending champion Danielle Collins.

This marks her first Miami semifinal, adding to her growing list of successes on hard courts, including titles at the Australian Open, US Open, Cincinnati, and Wuhan in 2024.

Despite unexpected runner-up finishes at Indian Wells and the Australian Open earlier in 2025, Sabalenka has shown no signs of slowing down.

She holds a formidable 10-2 record against top-10 players in her last 12 meetings and is expected to improve her head-to-head dominance over Paolini.

Jasmine Paolini Overview

Current rank: 7
Career high rank: 4
ELO rank: 13
Season record: 12-5
Career semifinal record: 7-5
Record against world No. 1: 0-4 (0-8 in sets)

Jasmine Paolini Form

Jasmine Paolini has made a remarkable run to become the first ever Italian woman to reach the semifinals at the Miami Open.

Her campaign has been a major rebound from a slow start to the season. She struggled for consistency with no quarterfinal appearances since Wuhan or semifinals since Wimbledon.

She did get lucky in terms of gaining from the retirement of Ons Jabeur, and later defeating Naomi Osaka, a former finalist, from a set down.

Despite her history of winning a WTA 1000 title in Dubai last year, Paolini is likely to run out of good fortune against Sabalenka.

She remains winless against world No. 1 players, with all four prior attempts ending in straight-set losses.

Her only win against Sabalenka out of four WTA meetings happened to have come on US courts in Indian Wells in 2022.

Verdict

Aryna Sabalenka v Jasmine Paolini

Aryna Sabalenka powers into her first Miami Open semifinal without dropping a set, while Jasmine Paolini makes history as the first Italian woman to reach this stage.

Sabalenka leads their tour-level head-to-head 3-1 and is the clear favorite, though Paolini has put up a fight in every encounter.

Sabalenka 2-0

Correct Score

@1/2 - 2 Units

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