Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alexei Popyrin Live Stream & Preview - Fokina’s finish line wobbles offer betting value in Monte Carlo

Freetips staff

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Last updated: 11 Apr 2025

Freetips staff 11 Apr 2025

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Davidovich Fokina is favored due to clay success, especially in Monte Carlo.
Fokina's struggle with closing out matches makes him riskier as a favorite.
Over 1.5 match points at 2.20 is a promising bet given his match-closing issues.

Expired

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina will be in action in Monte Carlo (credit: Getty)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alexei Popyrin Preview

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has enjoyed more success on clay and particularly at the Monte Carlo Masters, so it is understandable that he enters this clash as the favourite. However, given how unreliable he can be and his struggles with closing out sets and matches, backing him at short odds is rarely worth it. He is the kind of player you would rather support as an underdog.

There is not much value in the outright market for this one. A better angle might be focusing on the Spaniard’s tendency to need multiple chances to close matches. Over 1.5 match points at 2.20 looks like good value, especially considering Davidovich Fokina rarely makes things straightforward for himself or his opponent when the end is near.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alexei Popyrin Preview
Head-to-Head
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Overview
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Form
Alexei Popyrin Overview
Alexei Popyrin Form

Head-to-Head

This will be the first meeting between the pair.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Overview

Current rank: 42
Career-high rank: 21
ELO rank: 37
Season record: 17–8
Monte Carlo best result: Runner-up in 2022
Masters quarterfinal record: 2–2
Tour-level quarterfinal record on clay: 3–6

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Form

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina’s mental struggles with holding onto leads and closing out sets and matches were on full display once again in the round of 16 at the Monte Carlo Masters.

Luckily for him, those issues did not end up costing him the win, as he managed to scrape past the in-form Jack Draper in three sets, even after blowing a break lead in the second.

These problems have followed him throughout his career and have popped up again this season.

But unlike last year, the Spaniard has managed to keep them under wraps by putting together some strong results, improving his season win-loss record to 17 and 8 and climbing back into the top 50.

He is now set to play in his third quarterfinal at the Monte Carlo Masters, which is a decent stat considering only Stefanos Tsitsipas, a three-time champion here, has made more quarterfinals at this event in the past decade.

Davidovich Fokina’s first quarterfinal appearance in Monte Carlo ended in retirement against Tsitsipas back in 2021, but he bounced back the next year by beating Taylor Fritz in the quarters and going all the way to the final.

This year, he’s a perfect two from two in quarterfinal matches, with wins over Taylor Fritz in Delray Beach and Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez in Acapulco.

Alexei Popyrin Overview

Current rank: 27
Career-high rank: 23
ELO rank: 43
Season record: 5–7
Masters quarterfinal record: 1–1
Tour-level quarterfinal record on clay: 1–0

Alexei Popyrin Form

Alexei Popyrin has pulled off some big performances here and there throughout his career, and he brought out another one to knock off last year’s runner-up Casper Ruud in the round of 16.

Popyrin was just moments away from losing, trailing by a break in the final set and facing multiple match points on his serve, but he managed to dig deep and turn it around to pull off a big upset.

All three of his matches in this campaign have gone the distance. Earlier in the tournament, he came back from a set down to beat Ugo Humbert and Frances Tiafoe, both ranked inside the top 20.

This is the first time Popyrin has managed to string together back-to-back wins on the main tour this year.

Even after this wild run, his season win-loss record sits at a rough 5 and 7, which just highlights how tough the first few months of the year have been for him.

The last time Popyrin made it to a quarterfinal at tour level was at the Montreal Masters last year, where he pulled off seven upsets in a row to claim the biggest title of his career, which also earned him a spot in the top 30 for the first time.

Both of his previous Masters quarterfinals were against top-20 opponents, Hubert Hurkacz in Montreal 2024 and Cincinnati 2023, so in that sense, this upcoming quarterfinal might be his most manageable one at this level.

Verdict

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina v Alexei Popyrin

Davidovich Fokina is strong on clay and at Monte Carlo, but his nerves make him hard to trust as a favourite.

Backing over 1.5 match points at 2.20 could be the smarter play given his habit of dragging matches out.

Over 1.5

Match Point Total

@6/5 - 1 Unit

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