Francisco Cerundolo vs Carlos Alcaraz Live Stream & Betting Tips - Cerundolo brings the heat but Alcaraz knows the way on clay

Freetips staff

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Last updated: 09 Apr 2025

Freetips staff 09 Apr 2025

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Cerundolo has shown strong form, with a season record of 17-7.
Alcaraz, although new to Monte Carlo, excels on clay surfaces.
Expect a competitive match, but Alcaraz's clay expertise should prevail.

Expired

Carlos Alcaraz is seeking his first win at Monte Carlo Masters (credit: Getty)

Francisco Cerundolo vs Carlos Alcaraz Preview

The fact that Francisco Cerundolo came very close to pushing their match to a deciding set at Indian Wells just a few weeks ago, combined with his current confidence and form, and Alcaraz's limited experience in these conditions, suggests the Argentine is well in the mix here.

That said, Alcaraz is still clearly the better player on clay at the moment, and it takes something pretty special to knock him off in these slow-playing conditions. He might have a few tricky moments, but I fully expect him to work through the challenges and notch up his first win at this venue.

Francisco Cerundolo vs Carlos Alcaraz Preview
Head-to-Head
Francisco Cerundolo Overview
Francisco Cerundolo Form
Carlos Alcaraz Overview
Carlos Alcaraz Form

Head-to-Head

Year	Event	Surface	Round	Winner	Score
2025	Indian Wells	Hard	QF	Alcaraz	6-3 7-6
2024	Queen's Club	Grass	R1	Alcaraz	6-1 7-5
2019	ITF	Clay	SF	Cerundolo	6-2 6-4

Francisco Cerundolo Overview

Current rank: 22
Career high rank: 19
ELO rank: 25
Season record: 17-7
Monte Carlo Masters second-round record: 0-2
Record against top-10 players in 2025: 3-2

Francisco Cerundolo Form

Francisco Cerundolo made light work of former champion Fabio Fognini in the opening round and now faces a much tougher challenge, going up against tournament favourite Carlos Alcaraz in the second round.

The win over Fognini was the Argentine's 17th of the season, putting him at the top of the tour for most main-draw wins in 2025.

It's a clear sign of the impressive consistency he has shown over the past four months.

Cerundolo has won at least two matches in each of his last six tournaments, but this strong run will be seriously tested in Monte Carlo on Wednesday.

He has never made it past the second round at the Monte Carlo Masters.

His previous two appearances in 2023 and 2024 both ended in the second round, losing to Matteo Berrettini and Karen Khachanov in three sets.

Heading into this big test, it's worth noting that Cerundolo has built a solid record against top players.

He holds a 14-14 career record against top 10 opponents, and on clay, it improves to a very decent 8-6.

Carlos Alcaraz Overview

Current rank: 3
Career high rank: 1
ELO rank: 3
Season record: 15-4
Monte Carlo Masters second-round record: 0-1
Record on clay against non-top-20 players: 10-0 in his last ten matches

Carlos Alcaraz Form

Carlos Alcaraz arrives at the Monte Carlo Masters under a fair bit of pressure.

With his main rival and world number one Jannik Sinner missing from the field, many expected Alcaraz to step up and dominate. But things haven't gone to plan so far.

In the first four months of the season, he's managed to win just one title and has suffered some disappointing losses to underdogs like Jiri Lehecka in Doha, Jack Draper at Indian Wells, and David Goffin in Miami.

Because of this underwhelming stretch, his chances of reclaiming the world number one ranking before Sinner's suspension ends later this month have all but disappeared.

To make things trickier, Alcaraz is stepping into somewhat unfamiliar territory in Monte Carlo.

He usually skips this tournament after a successful Sunshine Double swing, but this year he's decided to give it a go.

He has played here only once before, back in 2022, when he lost in the second round (after a first-round bye) to Sebastian Korda in three sets.

Verdict

Francisco Cerundolo v Carlos Alcaraz

Cerundolo pushed Alcaraz hard at Indian Wells and comes in confident. With the Spaniard still finding his feet in Monte Carlo, this could get interesting.

Even so, Alcaraz is a level above on clay. He may wobble early but should find a way through.

Alcaraz -3.5

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