Monte Carlo Masters 2025 Preview: Betting Odds, Clay Experts & Key Storylines

Played on red clay since 1937, Monte Carlo has seen plenty of legends lift the trophy. Rafael Nadal set records here with 11 titles (including eight in a row from 2005–2012), while other icons like Björn Borg and Novak Djokovic have also inscribed their names into tournament history. The combination of rich history, scenic seaside venue, and top-tier competition makes the Monte Carlo Masters one of the most special stops outside the Grand Slams.

• What’s New for the 2025 Edition
• Top Seeds & Their Form Coming In
• Clay-Court Specialists to Watch
• Outright Betting Odds & Market Analysis
• Dark Horse Predictions
• How to Watch & Live Stream the Monte Carlo Masters

The 2025 Monte Carlo Masters comes with a few key updates and storylines that bettors and fans should note. 

Jannik Sinner’s Absence
World No. 1 Jannik Sinner will not be in the draw, as he continues to serve a suspension for a positive test for the banned substance Clostebol. His three-month ban means the Italian phenom – a semifinalist here last year – won’t return until May (in time for Rome). Sinner’s absence has a ripple effect: Alexander Zverev, the world No. 2, assumes the top seed role in Monte Carlo, and Carlos Alcaraz (world No. 3) is the second seed​. This also opens the door for others to seize ranking points and title chances in Sinner’s absence​

Withdrawals & Wildcards: A few other notable names are missing due to injury or scheduling choices. World No. 4 Taylor Fritz withdrew after suffering an abdominal injury in Miami​, and big-serving Hubert Hurkacz is also out hurt​. Young Americans like Tommy Paul chose to play elsewhere on clay this week​. These late withdrawals allowed players on the cusp to move into seeded positions and gave wildcards to veterans – for example, former champion Stan Wawrinka (2014 winner) received a wildcard and could face Djokovic in a much-anticipated early-round clash​. Fan-favorite Fabio Fognini (the 2019 champion) also enters as a wildcard, adding to the clay-court star power.

Defending Champion & Record Chases
Reigning champ Stefanos Tsitsipas returns looking for an incredible fourth Monte Carlo crown in five years​. The Greek has practically owned this event lately (winning in 2021, 2022, and 2024) and will try to complete a rare hat-trick of consecutive titles. Meanwhile, 37-year-old Novak Djokovic is chasing a milestone – he’s aiming for his 100th tour-level title, and a victory here would mark his third Monte Carlo Masters trophy​. Djokovic arrives with confidence after a runner-up finish on hard courts in Miami, but now shifts to what is historically his trickiest Masters event.

The Monte Carlo field is stacked with elite talent – nine of the world’s top ten are present​

 – but not all contenders are entering with momentum. Here’s a look at the top seeds and how they’re faring:

Alexander Zverev (No. 1 seed): Despite being the top seed, Zverev’s recent form raises questions. Since finishing runner-up at the Australian Open in January (losing the final to Sinner), the German has slumped on hard courts. He suffered upset losses to players ranked outside the top 30 in his last three events. . However, the switch to clay could be exactly what he needs to rebound. Zverev has won over 70% of his career matches on clay​ – a significantly better win rate than he has on faster surfaces – and he’s proven his prowess with titles on clay in Rome and Hamburg in recent years​. A two-time semifinalist in Monte Carlo previously, Zverev will hope the familiar slow courts jump-start his season. Still, bettors are wary – given his patchy form, some are avoiding Zverev outright unless his odds drift to about 10/1 or longer​

Carlos Alcaraz (No. 2 seed): The 21-year-old Alcaraz is already a superstar, and clay might be his best surface. He boasts a stellar ~82% win rate on clay courts​, and notably has managed to win at least one big clay-court title in each of the past three seasons​ (including the French Open in 2024). Monte Carlo, however, is one place the Spanish prodigy hasn’t conquered yet. In fact, Alcaraz has a mediocre record here so far, having played the event only once and missing it in 2023 and 2024 due to injuries/illness. Don’t let that put you off – there’s little in his game or statistics to suggest he can’t thrive on these courts. Alcaraz’s all-court movement and heavy topspin groundstrokes are perfectly suited for Monte Carlo’s clay. As long as he can adjust to the unique conditions (and maintain a first-serve percentage north of 60% to set up his aggressive baseline game​), Alcaraz is absolutely a title favorite. This could be a prime opportunity for him to claim his first Monte Carlo crown and second title of the year​.

Novak Djokovic (No. 3 seed): The world No. 5 (seeded 3rd here after withdrawals) comes in with a mix of confidence and caution. Djokovic nearly won the Miami Masters on hard courts (finishing as runner-up just last week)​, but transitioning to European clay has tripped him up before. Although this is essentially a home tournament for Djokovic – he resides in Monaco and practices at the Monte Carlo Country Club – he has won it only twice (2013 and 2015)​. In recent editions he’s been shocked by lower-ranked players; for example, he fell to Lorenzo Musetti in the third round here in 2023 after leading by a set​, and he was upset by Casper Ruud in the 2024 semi-finals. Still, the 22-time Slam champion is a threat to win any event he enters. Djokovic’s motivation is high as he chases his 100th career title and looks to kickstart his clay campaign. The draw has handed him potential early tests (possibly Wawrinka in round two and an in-form Grigor Dimitrov by round three)​, so we’ll get an early gauge of his form. If Novak hits his stride, his consistency and experience could carry him deep, but any lapses on these slow courts could spell trouble against hungry clay specialists.

Casper Ruud (No. 4 seed): Last year’s Monte Carlo runner-up will be keen to go one step further, but Ruud has been struggling to find his top gear in 2025. The Norwegian – who has incredibly won 11 of his 12 ATP titles on clay – has had a woeful start to the year on hard courts. Aside from a run to the final in Dallas, his results have been underwhelming, and his return game in particular has been lacking (he’s won only ~20% of return games this season, far below his 27% career return win rate on clay)​. The good news for Ruud is that the tour’s switch to clay could flip the script. He is far more comfortable on this surface, where his heavy topspin forehand and high kick serve are major weapons. Indeed, Monte Carlo was the scene of a turnaround for him last year, and he backed that up with a deep run at Roland Garros. Ruud is a classic clay-court specialist – look for him to grind out wins against lower-ranked opponents. If he can build some confidence in the early rounds (he opens against either Brandon Nakashima or Roberto Bautista Agut), Ruud could become a dangerous floater in the draw. Bettors might find value in Ruud as a dark horse pick given his slump; his odds have drifted longer than usual, but his pedigree on clay is unquestioned​

Jack Draper (No. 5 seed): Draper has rocketed up the rankings and finds himself the fifth seed after the withdrawals. The 22-year-old Brit arrives in Monaco as the newly crowned Indian Wells champion – he stunned the field last month to win his first Masters 1000 on hard courts​. That title, plus a finals appearance in Doha, signal that Draper is one of 2025’s breakout players. However, he is the least proven of the top seeds on clay. In his young career, Draper has won less than half of his matches on clay​, a stark contrast to his success on other surfaces. Monte Carlo’s slow, high-bouncing clay will test his game: his lefty serve and baseline power worked wonders on U.S. hard courts, but can he adapt his footing and patience to longer clay rallies? Pundits are split. Some feel Draper’s current form and confidence will carry over, making him a factor here, while others expect a learning curve (indeed, the consensus is that he’s unlikely to contend for the title this week given the surface change​). His early matches should be telling – Draper’s section could pit him against flamboyant shot-makers like Ben Shelton or former finalist Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, which will provide a crash course in clay tennis.

Stefanos Tsitsipas (No. 6 seed): The defending champion and “Prince of Monte Carlo” cannot be overlooked. Tsitsipas has won all three of his Masters 1000 titles at this very tournament (2021, 2022, 2024), a stunning record that speaks to how much he loves the conditions here. The Greek owns a 76.3% career win rate on clay​ and seems to always play his best tennis in the Principality. Coming into the tournament, Tsitsipas’s form is a bit hard to gauge – he had a relatively quiet Sunshine Double (e.g. a fourth-round exit in Indian Wells), but he was reportedly dealing with some shoulder niggles earlier in the year. If he’s now fully fit, Monte Carlo’s slow clay and best-of-three format suit his heavy forehand and all-court creativity perfectly. Tsitsipas has a nice early draw to play himself into form, and could meet Holger Rune in a blockbuster third-round match. Given his track record here, it’s no surprise Stefanos is among the top betting choices again; he’s a proven clay specialist and clearly targets this event. Don’t be shocked if he’s lifting the trophy for the third consecutive year – it would be his fourth title here in five years, an achievement reminiscent of Nadal’s dominance.

With the draw set and play about to begin, the outright betting markets are taking shape. The absence of Sinner and withdrawal of Fritz have shuffled the odds board a bit, concentrating favoritism on a few familiar names. Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic are the consensus favorites to win Monte Carlo in 2025, which comes as little surprise. In last year’s pre-tournament odds, Alcaraz was priced around +180 (2.80) and Djokovic about +250 (3.50) to win the title​. All odd Stake.

We can expect similarly short prices on those two this year, given that both are healthy and coming off strong recent results. Alcaraz’s odds might be slightly better (lower) than Djokovic’s – the young Spaniard has been a dominant force on clay and is hungry for his first Monte Carlo title, whereas Djokovic, despite his greatness, hasn’t prevailed here in eight years. Both men are clear front-runners in the eyes of oddsmakers, so a bet on either outright won’t pay out much more than 2.5x–3.5x your stake at the moment. Behind the top two, there’s an intriguing second tier of contenders. Stefanos Tsitsipas – with his stellar track record in Monte Carlo – is very high on the bookies’ list of threats. The defending champ’s odds have generally been in the mid single-digits (in 2024 he was roughly a +500 underdog behind the top favorites, and with Sinner out he could be the third choice now). Bettors are certainly drawn to Tsitsipas given his history here; he’s a popular pick again in 2025​.

If you believe in the Monte Carlo magic continuing for Stefanos, a wager on him offers a decent balance of risk and reward. Meanwhile, Alexander Zverev – the No.1 seed – is a bit of a conundrum for punters.

On one hand, Zverev has the ranking and past clay success (he’s a former Madrid and Rome champion), but on the other hand his current form is shaky. Sportsbooks initially put Zverev in the mix with relatively short odds (he opened around +800 to +1000, i.e. 8 or 10-to-1). However, given his recent stumbles, some money has shifted away from Zverev, potentially lengthening his price. Our tennis betting analysts would “steer well clear [of Zverev]” unless his odds drifted to 10/1 or beyond​. If you still have faith that Sascha can rebound on clay, you might now get a more generous payout for backing him than you would have a month ago. Other names in the outright market to consider include Casper Ruud and Holger Rune, both somewhat outside the top echelon of favorites this week. Ruud, given his poor start to 2025, is being offered at longer odds than usual for a top-5 player and recent Slam finalist.

This creates an interesting value proposition – as mentioned, Ruud’s clay pedigree is strong, so a punt on him could pay off handsomely if he finds his groove​. Rune’s odds sit in a similar range: not among the top three or four favorites, but certainly not a long-shot either. The Danish youngster has shown he can beat top guys on clay, so some bettors will be enticed to take him as an outsider pick, especially for an each-way bet (many bookies will pay out half the odds if your pick reaches the final). For example, an each-way bet on Rune at, say, +1200 could still net a solid return if he ends up runner-up.

And what about Jack Draper? His Indian Wells heroics have not gone unnoticed by bookmakers – Draper’s title odds shortened considerably after that big win. Coming into Monte Carlo, he finds himself seeded and getting more respect in the markets than ever before. Still, oddsmakers are cautious given his inexperience on clay. Draper’s outright odds are in the mid-tier (perhaps in the +1200 to +1600 range), reflecting the view that he’s talented but not yet a proven contender on this surface. If you believe the young Brit’s momentum will carry over, he could be a high-reward gamble.

On the flip side, Daniil Medvedev – normally a top-five favorite at any event – is a relative long shot here. The Russian’s open disdain for clay is well known, and despite a surprise Rome title in 2023, he’s had dismal results in Monte Carlo historically. Medvedev opened as the 10th seed and even had to play a first-round match this week, which tells you the expectations are muted. His odds to win the title are correspondingly long, so only the boldest bettors will back Medvedev to go all the way. In terms of reaching the final or other markets, many bookmakers offer “To Reach the Final” odds or each-way options. If you’re hesitant about someone actually clinching the trophy but feel they can make a deep run, these markets are worth exploring. For instance, backing a dark horse like Ruud or Rune to make the final will have shorter odds than winning outright, but still attractive payouts given the field strength. Live betting will also be interesting as the tournament unfolds.

Monte Carlo’s clay can produce momentum shifts in matches; savvy bettors might take advantage of in-play odds if a favorite falls behind early in a match (historically, players like Nadal or Djokovic have overcome one-set deficits here, rewarding those who bet on their comebacks mid-match). Market Movements to watch: Keep an eye on Tsitsipas’s odds as the event progresses – if he breezes through the early rounds, his odds will shorten quickly given his status as defending champ. Likewise, any signs that Djokovic is in peak form (e.g. a dominant early win) could see his price move from the +300 range closer to +200, potentially even overtaking Alcaraz as the favorite. Conversely, if Alcaraz shows any struggle adapting to Monte Carlo (remember, he hasn’t played here in competition for a couple of years), bettors might start favoring someone like Djokovic or Tsitsipas, causing Alcaraz’s odds to drift a bit. It’s always a dynamic situation, so staying updated through the week is key if you’re looking to place outright bets after play has begun.

Every Masters 1000 has its share of upsets, and Monte Carlo’s slower conditions sometimes allow underdogs to shine. Here are a couple of dark horse picks for 2025 – players who may not be favored to win it all, but who have a realistic shot at making a deep run (and perhaps stunning the field entirely):

Casper Ruud: It might feel odd labeling the world No. 5 (and last year’s finalist) a “dark horse,” but given the way odds and perceptions are trending, Ruud fits the bill. Many have written off Ruud’s chances due to his poor form this year, but that could be a mistake. We’ve detailed his clay bona fides – he is, in effect, a clay specialist with a proven record. Importantly, Ruud could fly under the radar this week, easing some pressure. If he can navigate the early rounds and get into the quarter-finals, his confidence will grow. Remember, he beat an in-form Djokovic in last year’s semi-finals here​, so he’s proven he can take out even the big names on clay. Ruud’s solid defensive skills, topspin heaviness, and fitness make him a tough out in best-of-three on clay. Don’t be shocked if he finds himself contending on the weekend again. For bettors, Ruud’s odds are relatively long for a player of his caliber, which spells opportunity – he “is an interesting buy-low option,”.

Holger Rune: Rune is seeded #10, but he’s not typically the first or second name that comes up when discussing title favorites this week – and that’s exactly why he’s dangerous. We saw Rune’s breakout in Monte Carlo two years ago, when he knocked out top seeds and nearly won the title. He has since backed that up with consistent showings at Masters level. Rune’s fiery competitiveness and belief mean he expects to beat higher-ranked guys, not just hopes to. If he indeed meets Tsitsipas in round 3, that could be a launching pad – he’d relish the chance to avenge his close loss to Stefanos from the 2023 final. From a matchup perspective, Rune’s flat, early timing can take time away from players like Alcaraz or Djokovic on clay, potentially throwing them off. The key for Rune will be maintaining focus (avoiding the mid-match lapses that sometimes plague him) and managing his emotions in tight moments. Should he reach the semi-finals, watch out – he’d have the experience of 2023 to draw on and nothing to lose. As a betting pick, Rune offers a solid mix of moderately long odds and genuine title-winning upside.

Lorenzo Musetti: This one is for the true long-shot lovers. Musetti winning the title would be a Cinderella story, but a semi-final run is not out of the question if things break his way. We’ve highlighted how well the young Italian can play on clay – case in point, his win over Djokovic here in 2023 was no fluke. Musetti has the variety and tennis IQ to disrupt opponents’ rhythm. He’s in a challenging section of the draw (potentially facing Zverev before even reaching the quarter-final), so the risk is high. But if you’re looking for an underdog with flair, Musetti is your man. The conditions in Monte Carlo (outdoor, often breezy by the sea) can reward his touch and creativity. Should he topple a big name early, the draw could really open up for him. At very long odds, Musetti could be worth a tiny punt as a flyer – even if he falls short of the title, a semi-final would more than justify an each-way bet at his prices.

Others to consider in the “dark horse” category include Andrey Rublev – oddly under-discussed despite being the 2023 champion, meaning you might get a decent price on him relative to his actual chances – and veterans like Stan Wawrinka, who certainly won’t win the tournament at this stage of his career but could knock out a seed or two (Stan’s one-handed backhand and past champion know-how make him a sentimental pick to perhaps reach the quarterfinals with the right draw). In any case, Monte Carlo has a history of one or two surprise names crashing the late rounds (recall Fabio Fognini’s title in 2019 or Alejandro Davidovich Fokina’s run to the final in 2022). Bettors seeking value should assess the draw quarters and consider an outsider who could take advantage if a favorite in their section falters.

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