Holger Rune vs Matteo Arnaldi Live Stream & Tips - Arnaldi Backed to Take a Set Off Rune in London

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Last updated: 16 Jun 2025

Freetips staff 16 Jun 2025

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Holger Rune is the favorite but inconsistent on grass
Matteo Arnaldi aims to challenge, possible to take a set
Rune's fitness key to success; Arnaldi has prior match experience

Expired

Matteo Arnaldi gears up for a tough opener as he looks to test Rune on his least favoured surface. (credit: Getty)

Holger Rune vs Matteo Arnaldi Preview

As a top-10 player, there's no questioning Holger Rune’s credentials as the favourite but he's far from a consistent performer on grass. With a match already under his belt and the game to trouble higher-ranked opponents, Matteo Arnaldi looks capable of making a strong start and snatching at least a set here.
Holger Rune vs Matteo Arnaldi Preview
Stats
Head-to-Head
Holger Rune Stats
Holger Rune Form
Matteo Arnaldi Stats
Matteo Arnaldi Form

Stats

Holger Rune has lost 3 of 5 matches against Italian opponents in 2025
Rune is on a two-match losing streak at ATP London (lost in the 2023 semifinal and 2024 first round)
Matteo Arnaldi is 8–6 in opening-round matches this year
Arnaldi has never faced a top-10 player on grass

Head-to-Head

Year	Event	Surface	Round	Winner	Score
2024	Paris Masters	Hard	R1	Rune	6-4 6-4

Holger Rune Stats

Current rank: 9
Career-high rank: 4
Elo rank: 14
Season record (2025): 20–12
Season record on grass: 0–0
London best result: Semifinalist in 2023
Form against non-top-20 players in 2025: 15–9

Holger Rune Form

Holger Rune’s season has been a rollercoaster, mostly shaped by his physical condition. He has already retired from three matches in 2025 and often looked short of full fitness, but when healthy, he has delivered strong results including a title in Barcelona and a runner-up finish at Indian Wells.

His success on grass over the next few weeks will depend heavily on how fit he is. Unlike on clay or hard courts where he can still compete when below his best, grass leaves him with little margin for error, especially since it's his least preferred surface.

Still, Queen’s Club brings back good memories. It was here in 2023 that he earned his first career win on grass, beating Maxime Cressy and going on to reach the semifinals on debut.

Matteo Arnaldi Stats

Current rank: 41
Career-high rank: 29
Elo rank: 34
Season record (2025): 15–14
Season record on grass: 0–2
London best result: Second round in 2024
Form against top-10 players in 2025: 2–3

Matteo Arnaldi Form

Matteo Arnaldi kicked off his grass swing early in 's-Hertogenbosch last week, but it didn’t go to plan — he was beaten in straight sets by an out-of-form Jan-Lennard Struff.

Still relatively new to the surface, the Italian has played just nine career matches on grass, losing five of them.

His only main-draw win on grass came at Queen’s Club last year, where he made his debut and edged out Ugo Humbert in three sets.

Verdict

Holger Rune v Matteo Arnaldi

Holger Rune has the ranking advantage and comes in as the clear favourite, but grass continues to bring out his inconsistency. Matteo Arnaldi, with a match already under his belt and the ability to challenge higher-ranked players, has a real shot at making this a contest and taking a set.

Matteo Arnaldi +1.5

Sets Handicap

@48/49 - 4 Units

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