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Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko 3 Predictions & Tips – Shevchenko To Regain Title At UFC 306

Leigh Copson

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Last updated: 09 Sep 2024

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Leigh Copson 09 Sep 2024

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Valentina Shevchenko to regain flyweight title via decision
Shevchenko has historically out-landed Grasso in significant strikes and takedowns
Both fighters have a deep familiarity with each other, adding to the excitement

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Valentina Shevchenko (Getty Images)

Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko 3 Predictions & Tips

Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko 3 Predictions & Tips
Head To Head
Alexa Grasso Form
Valentina Shevchenko Form

Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko 3 Predictions & Tips

Valentina Shevchenko is tipped to regain her women’s flyweight crown via decision.

These two women have fought for almost 10 full rounds, so they know each other very well.

Shevchenko has out-landed Grasso and has scored more takedown attempts over those 10 rounds though, so we lean towards ‘Bullet’.

Valentina Shevchenko is 9-1 with 1 draw in her last 11 fights
Alexa Grasso has lost 3 times during her UFC career
2 of Alexa Grasso’s 3 career defeats have been via decision
Shevchenko has landed 24 more significant strikes across the 2 previous fights
Shevchenko has scored 7 more takedowns than Grasso over the previous 2 fights

Head To Head

Alexa Grasso won by fourth-round submission when the two women fought in May 2023
The two women fought to a split decision draw when they last fought in September 2023

Alexa Grasso Form

Alexa Grasso is the defending UFC women’s flyweight champion with a professional record of 16-1 (4 KOs, 2 Subs) and 1 Draw.

Grasso joined the UFC in 2016 but experienced mixed fortunes over the first couple of years, going 2-3 in her fights five fights.

Her last defeat came in September 2019 though, with a six-fight unbeaten run propelling her to the very top of the flyweight division.

The 31-year-old Mexican began her run with a couple of unanimous decision wins over Kim Ji-Yeon and Maycee Barber.

Grasso then scored her first stoppage win under the UFC banner when she submitted Joanne Wood in the first round of their fight.

She then claimed a points win over Viviane Araujo to earn herself a shot at dominant flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko.

Grasso shocked the world when she submitted Shevchenko in the fourth round, and in the rematch last September the two women went to a split decision draw.

Valentina Shevchenko Form

Valentina Shevchenko is a former UFC flyweight champion and the current #1 contender with a career record of 23-4 (8 KOs, 7 Subs) with 1 Draw.

Shevchenko won the vacant title back in February 2018 when she submitted Priscila Cachoeira in the second round.

She then successfully defended it with a points win over Joanna Jedrzejczyk, before knocking out Jessica Eye with a head kick in the second round.

The 36-year-old Russian continued to stack up the defences across 2019 and 2020 by sandwiching a third-round knockout of Katlyn Chookagian with points wins over Liz Carmouche and Jennifer Maia.

Shevchenko then stopped both of her opponents in 2021, beating Jessica Andrade by second-round TKO and Lauren Murphy by fourth-round TKO.

Her reign continued in her only outing of 2022, but her split decision victory over Taila Santos proved to be her final successful defence.

‘Bullet’ saw her nine-fight win streak come to an end with a fourth-round submission loss to Alexa Grasso in March 2023.

And when the two women fought again six months later, Shevchenko failed to regain the flyweight title as she went to a split decision draw with Grasso.

Verdict

Alexa Grasso v Valentina Shevchenko

This is a close one to call, but the stats from the previous two fights suggest Shevchenko can win the trilogy fight.

She landed more significant strikes and takedowns across those two contests, so we give ‘Bullet’ the edge.

Valentina Shevchenko

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Shevchenko by Decision

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