Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Tips - Lions roar back into top four calculations
The Brisbane Lions seek a strong response at home after a shock defeat to Carlton, facing the in-form Hawthorn, now third on the ladder. Despite Hawthorn's attacking threat and recent winning streak, the Lions' powerful midfield, home-ground dominance, and historical edge at the GABBA make them favorites. Both teams are expected to post high scores, with Lions forward Charlie Cameron tipped for a multiple-goal game. Ultimately, the Lions' experience and venue advantage should prove decisive in this crucial AFL clash.
- Brisbane seeks to rebound at home after a heavy loss to Carlton.
- Hawthorn boasts strong form & attacking threat but struggles at the GABBA.
- Expect high total points; Lions and Charlie Cameron tipped to dominate.
Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Preview
- Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Preview
- Head to Head
- Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
- Brisbane Lions Team News
- Hawthorn Form Analysis
- Hawthorn Team News
Expect the Lions to respond with a statement at the GABBA.
Last year’s premiers will be looking to bounce back from a shock 76-point loss to Carlton, with the Marvel Stadium defeat seeing them slide outside the top four.
Hawthorn are six points clear of the Lions in 3rd spot, just two points behind second-placed Sydney and have developed into one of the competition's most dangerous attacking sides.
Expect a high-quality contest, but Brisbane's outstanding record at the GABBA and the motivation of last week's performance should see Chris Fagan's side regain control.
The midfield battle promises to be fierce. Hawthorn's Jai Newcombe produced another dominant display with 34 disposals and 12 clearances against North Melbourne, while Will Day continues to provide class and composure around stoppages.
Brisbane, however, still boasts one of the AFL's deepest midfield rotations. Will Ashcroft fought tirelessly despite the heavy defeat to Carlton with 32 disposals and two goals, Josh Dunkley battled hard throughout, while Lachie Neale remains one of the competition's elite decision-makers. Expect Brisbane to respond at both contested ball and stoppage after being beaten by Carlton in these measures last weekend, something the Lions rarely lose two weeks in succession.
Hawthorn will look to attack from the back-half, following the blueprint from Carlton last weekend and have averaged 108 points across the past seven rounds. They continue to generate scores through aggressive ball movement and elite forward-half pressure. Nick Watson's five-goal haul against North Melbourne underlined just how dangerous Sam Mitchell's forward line is, while Mabior Chol and Jack Gunston provide multiple scoring avenues.
Brisbane's defensive system was exposed by Carlton's aerial strength last week, but returning home should allow the Lions to regain the intercept game and controlled ball movement that has underpinned their impressive GABBA record.
The total points over is well within reach in the Round 22 match with the Lions averaging 133 points across their past three home games, winning each by an average of 64 points. Charlie Cameron has traditionally enjoyed facing the Hawks and arrives having kicked multiple goals in each of his past six matches, while Kai Lohmann's recent form continues to provide another dangerous avenue close to goal.
Hawthorn should remain competitive for long periods, but Brisbane's experience and home-ground advantage look decisive in what shapes as one of the better matches of the weekend.
- The Hawks have averaged 108 points per game in the past seven rounds.
- The Lions have averaged 133 points per game in their past three matches at the GABBA, winning those by an average of 64 points.
- Brisbane have won the past two against the Hawks.
- Charlie Cameron has kicked 2+ goals in seven of his past nine matches against Hawthorn.
Head to Head
The two sides are yet to meet in 2026. Brisbane won both encounters last season, by 10 points at the GABBA and 33 points at the MCG. Hawthorn had won the previous five meetings but have since lost their past three visits to the GABBA.
Standout player performances in recent meetings
- Lachie Neale (Lions): 30+ disposals in two of his past three against Hawthorn and 29 in the other.
- Will Day (Hawks): 25+ disposals in his past two against Brisbane.
- Charlie Cameron (Lions): 2+ goals in seven of his past nine against Hawthorn, averaging two goals per game in that period.
- Mitch Lewis (Hawks): Nine goals in his past three matches against Brisbane.
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
Brisbane were brought crashing back to earth with a 76-point loss to Carlton, conceding 24 goals as their seven-match winning streak came to an end. The Lions struggled around stoppages and contested possession, while an experimental defensive setup was exposed by the Blues' aerial strength. Will Ashcroft continued his remarkable season with 32 disposals and two goals, while Josh Dunkley never stopped competing through the midfield. Kai Lohmann and Charlie Cameron each kicked two goals despite limited opportunities.
Chris Fagan acknowledged post-match that his side was beaten in the contest and unable to prevent Carlton controlling possession, areas Brisbane has typically dominated throughout its recent winning run. The loss has dropped the Lions outside the top four, making this an important response game against another premiership contender.
History suggests Brisbane should improve significantly back at home. The Lions have won their past three matches at the GABBA by an average of 64 points while averaging 133 points per game. Across nine home matches this season they have averaged 112 points, with total match scores averaging 197. Ashcroft has produced 30+ disposals in seven consecutive matches, Lohmann has kicked 17 goals across the past five rounds, while Charlie Cameron has kicked multiple goals in each of his past six outings.
Brisbane Lions Team News
Brisbane's defensive stocks have become a concern after Keidean Coleman entered concussion protocols against Carlton, while veteran Ryan Lester finished the match with a shoulder injury. Dayne Zorko is expected to return and would provide an important boost to Brisbane's ball movement from half-back. Chris Fagan also indicated the Lions are unlikely to overreact to one poor performance, instead expecting a response from a group that had won seven consecutive matches prior to Round 21.
Hawthorn Form Analysis
Hawthorn strengthened its top-two credentials with a hard-fought 16-point win over North Melbourne, eventually pulling away in the final quarter after a match that featured 12 lead changes. Nick Watson was the star with an equal career-best five goals, while Jai Newcombe dominated through the midfield with 34 disposals and 12 clearances. Jarman Impey continued his outstanding form with another 30-disposal performance.
The Hawks have now won four consecutive matches and remain one of the AFL's most potent attacking sides, averaging 108 points per game across the past seven rounds. Watson has kicked 22 goals across his past six matches and now sits just five behind Charlie Curnow in the Coleman Medal race, while the emergence of multiple scoring threats has made Hawthorn increasingly difficult to defend.
The challenge now becomes translating that form to one of the competition's toughest road trips. Hawthorn have lost their past three and 10 of their past 12 matches at the GABBA. They have also lost two of their three interstate matches outside Victoria and Tasmania this season, making this one of their sternest tests of 2026.
Hawthorn Team News
Sam Mitchell is unlikely to make significant changes after four consecutive victories. The Hawks escaped the North Melbourne clash without injury concerns, while first-gamer Aidan Schubert showed encouraging signs on debut despite finishing goalless but may lose his spot to Mitch Lewis, if the key forward is cleared to return from concussion. Karl Amon and Ned Reeves are edging closer towards returning from knee injuries.
Verdict
Take the Lions to bounce back with the total points to go over. Charlie Cameron for 2+ goals.
Brisbane -4.5
Line
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Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.
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