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St Kilda vs Carlton AFL Betting Tips - Blues to maintain finals run in Round 22

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Thu 06 Aug 2026 17:21

Adam Cusworth 06 Aug 2026

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Carlton have won 9 of their last 11 matches under Josh Fraser
Blues averaging 127 points in last 3 games at Marvel Stadium
Recommended bets: Carlton win, Florent 25+ disposals, Smith 26+ disposals

Carlton Blues are in flying form (Getty Images)

St Kilda vs Carlton Verdict
Head to Head Stats
St Kilda Form
Carlton Form

St Kilda vs Carlton Verdict

Carlton have now won nine of their past 11 matches under Josh Fraser and are in the finals picture from nowhere. St Kilda can challenge early, but Carlton's confidence and attacking firepower should prove decisive.

Carlton have won nine of 11 matches under Josh Fraser and come off a 76-point victory over Brisbane.
Ollie Florent has had 25+ disposals in his past two matches and had 30 against St Kilda earlier this season.
Jagga Smith has had 25+ disposals in his past three matches.
Carlton are averaging 127 points per game in their past three matches at Marvel Stadium.

Head to Head Stats

The two sides met as recently as Round 8 this season, with St Kilda recording a 39-point victory.

Carlton and St Kilda have alternated wins across their past four meetings, while each of the past 10 clashes has been decided in the 1-39 point margin.

St Kilda Form

St Kilda produced three outstanding quarters against Sydney before fading late, conceding nine of the final 11 goals in a 19-point defeat.

The Saints controlled much of the contest through stoppages and contested possession before Sydney's class shone through in the final term. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera was again brilliant with 24 disposals and three goals.

Despite the loss, the Saints have shown they can match it with quality opposition for long periods, with their defensive structure and pressure remaining significant strengths.

Carlton Form

Carlton have built momentum and produced arguably the performance of the season in a 76-point demolition of Brisbane last week.

The Blues kicked 24 goals, had 16 individual goalkickers and completely outworked the reigning premiers across four quarters.

The Blues have now won nine of their past 11 matches under Josh Fraser and have transformed into one of the competition's most dangerous attacking sides.

Their past three matches at Marvel Stadium have yielded an average of 127 points, with improved ball movement and forward-half pressure underpinning the dramatic turnaround.

Verdict

St Kilda Saints v Carlton Blues

Take Carlton in the head-to-head, Ollie Florent for 25+ disposals and Jagga Smith for 25+ disposals.

Carlton

Win

@8/11 - 1 Unit

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Jagga Smith

To Have 26+ disposals

@11/20 - 1 Unit

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Bet at bet365

Ollie Florent

To Have 25+ disposals

@11/10 - 1 Unit

Bet £20 Get £10

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Bet at Star Sports

One of Australia's top tipsters, Adam provides tips for horse racing every day of the week as well as AFL previews. He is one of the top ranked experts on the Great Tip Off each month and has featured on Blackbook, Punters, Racingbase and many more.

Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.