2026 Brownlow Medal Winner Odds & Favourites - Latest markets for September 21 vote
The 2026 Brownlow Medal race has become a near formality, with Nick Daicos the overwhelming favourite at $1.01 to claim the honour. Bookmakers have all but declared Daicos the winner, making back-to-back Brownlow triumphs highly likely. His closest challengers, Bailey Smith and Marcus Bontempelli, are distant in the market, yet other betting options remain for AFL fans. Historical odds movement throughout the season highlights Daicos' dominance, affirming his near-certain victory come awards night.
- Nick Daicos is the $1.01 Brownlow favourite and an almost certain winner.
- Bailey Smith and Bontempelli trail far behind in betting odds.
- Other betting markets still offer value despite Daicos' dominance.
Can the Collingwood star be beaten ahead of the awards evening on Monday 21st September? Or is Daicos set to win the Brownlow vote?
Away from the outright market, there is still opportunity to find value across the multitude of markets available for AFL's Night of Nights.
You can read our value bets and Brownlow betting tips.
Current Brownlow Medal Winner Odds
| 2026 Brownlow Medal Winner | Odds |
|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | $1.01 |
| Bailey Smith | $12.00 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | $15.00 |
| Patrick Cripps | $19.00 |
| Will Ashcroft | $23.00 |
| Rest of the field | +$41.00 |
Odds from Ladbrokes Australia and correct as of 19/09/2026
Weekly Update
With only hours remaining until the award is presented. Nick Daicos remains the unassailable leader of the pack.
Historical Analysis
Round 22-24
Despite the odds barely moving at all over the final two weeks of the regular season, when votes actually counted, we have now started to see movement again.
Bailey Smith $12 has shortened to outright 2nd while Patrick Cripps has re-enetered the race, likely because of public perception over his role in Carlton's dream run into finals.
Don't be swayed by any bias though, Nick Daicos has this wrapped up.
Don't be swayed by any bias though, Nick Daicos has this wrapped up.
Round 22
The bookies have waved the white flag with 2 rounds to go and Nick Daicos is at an unbackable $1.01.
Closer to the event there will be markets on number of votes for different players so check back here for updates.
Closer to the event there will be markets on number of votes for different players so check back here for updates.
Round 20
Nick Daicos has shortened again to $1.20 after collecting another perfect 10 coaches votes, setting a new single-season record and strengthening his grip on Brownlow Medal favouritism.
Marcus Bontempelli has eased to $10.00 and appears to be the only realistic challenger, although he'll likely need a remarkable finish to the season, coupled with a sustained Western Bulldogs finals charge, to threaten Daicos.
With just a few rounds remaining, however, the Brownlow Medal race appears all but over. Barring an extraordinary twist, it's Nick Daicos' award to lose.
Round 19
Nick Daicos has tightened to $1.45 and is now the clear Brownlow Medal favourite with just a handful of rounds remaining in the home-and-away season.
Marcus Bontempelli firmed from $9.50 into $8.50 after another standout performance in the Bulldogs' win over Gold Coast, while Bailey Smith has joined Jordan Dawson and Isaac Heeney as equal third favourites in the market.
With the season entering its final stretch, it's becoming increasingly difficult to see anyone outside this leading group mounting a genuine Brownlow challenge.
Round 18
Nick Daicos $1.57 is the unbackable favourite with a handfull of games left to play. Jordan Dawson $11 is a sneaky under the radar chance given how many games he has likely taken three points with Adelaide continuing to win.
Marcus Bontempelli $9.50 and Isaac Heeney $11 are rightfully in the race but from a betting perspective probably not value choices. Zak Butters $18 picked up a serious injury last week but is still in the odds rankings, not a smart choice either.
Round 17
As quick as the Bont $9 was in, he is back out again. Nick Daicos $1.80 is an almost unbackable favourite at this stage but given the swings we have seen over the course of the season, it's not too late to get on a contender.
Isaac Heeney $9 is still a great chance given the amount of games he likely has polled 3 pts in while Bontempelli is still a great option.
Round 16
Marcus Bontempelli $5.50 is suddenly back on the radar as we see how fickle the market is. Bailey Smith $9 and Isaac Heeney $8 have drifted out with their respective teams hitting a rough patch while Luke Jackson $14 continues to climb as he plays a key role in the continued success of the Freo Dockers.
Round 15
Bailey Smith $8 missed a game and has taken a hit in the rankings which Nick Daicos $3.50 is once again outright leader of.
There is still value in Marcus Bontempelli $6 given how clutch he has been for the Bulldogs in recent weeks. Luke Jackson $13 and Jordan Dawson $13 are also great value if something were to happen to Daicos, Isaac Heeney $6 or Smith.
There is still value in Marcus Bontempelli $6 given how clutch he has been for the Bulldogs in recent weeks. Luke Jackson $13 and Jordan Dawson $13 are also great value if something were to happen to Daicos, Isaac Heeney $6 or Smith.
Round 14
Jordan Dawson $13 and Luke Jackson $21 have rocketed back into contention this week while the deadlock at the top of the standings has been broken. Nick Daicos $4.50 is now outright favourite once again with Bailey Smith $5 and Marcus Bontempelli $5.50 right behind.
Isaac Heeney $6 has drawn a lot closer following a number of elite performances for the Swans.
Round 13
Isaac Heeney $9 is the big mover this week with Swans continuing to win. Kysaiah Pickett $34 enters the top 7 again as the Demons continue to defy expectations.
Bailey Smith $4.50 has broken the top 3 deadlock, drifting out just a smidge from the Bont and Daicos $4.
Bailey Smith $4.50 has broken the top 3 deadlock, drifting out just a smidge from the Bont and Daicos $4.
Round 12
Not a lot has changed here with the top 3 still neck and neck. Christian Petracca $9.00 has shortened into single digits while Max Holmes $26 has entered the race as a smokey. Likely though has lost too many points to Bailey Smith $4.00
Patrick Cripps $41 has also made the top list and is not worth wasting your money on given how poor Carlton have been through the first half of the season.
Round 11
We have a three-way tie at the top of the Rankings. Nick Daicos $4, Marcus Bontempelli $4 and Bailey Smith $4 all share the lead with the Cats star midfielder getting a lot of love for their recent form.
Despite the Dockers sitting atop the ladder, Luke Jackson $41 has fallen off the top list but Zak Butters $12 and Christian Petracca $12 continue to rack up points even in losing contests.
Round 10
Nick Daicos and Marcus Bontempelli are once again neck and neck but the results their respective team's keep producing are not helping them in the odds rankings. Multiple players like Bailey Smith, Zak Butters and Christian Petracca are hot on their heels.
Round 9
Marcus Bontempelli $4.00 has once again taken the lead in the odds rankings over Nick Daicos $4.75 while Bailey Smith $8.00 has taken outright third.
Luke Jackson $26 is the new name on the list after a couple good games in a row but is likely having points distributed amongst teammates in Dockers victories.
Round 8
The market is seriously struggling here with Nick Daicos now back out to $3.40 despite his team finishing with a draw against the red hot Hawks. Marcus Bontempelli $4.50 has shortened despite losing to Freo and definitely not picking up the 3 pts in that game.
Christian Petracca $10.50 has been superb in his limited game time this season and seems to be the main contender to the top 2 but Bailey Smith's consistency means he is still there abouts.
Christian Petracca $10.50 has been superb in his limited game time this season and seems to be the main contender to the top 2 but Bailey Smith's consistency means he is still there abouts.
Round 7
Following the completion of Round 7 Nick Daicos $2.60 has once again solidified himself as the odds leader. Marcus Bontempelli $5.50 and Bailey Smith $5.50 continue to fight for 2nd spot with a big gap to the rest of the market.
Kysaiah Pickett $19 is the new entry this week with the Melbourne Demons playing well and winning games.
Kysaiah Pickett $19 is the new entry this week with the Melbourne Demons playing well and winning games.
Round 6
There has been a lot of movement over the past week in the Brownlow odds race. Daicos $3 is still the leader while Marcus Bontempelli $6 has been caught by Bailey Smith $6.
Christian Petracca $13 seems to not have been affected too much by missing a couple of games while Zak Butters $15 avoided a problem at the tribunal, keeping him in the race.
Isaac Heeney $13 and Harry Sheezel $41 have both entered the race based on strong performances by their respective teams.
Christian Petracca $13 seems to not have been affected too much by missing a couple of games while Zak Butters $15 avoided a problem at the tribunal, keeping him in the race.
Isaac Heeney $13 and Harry Sheezel $41 have both entered the race based on strong performances by their respective teams.
Round 5
Even though it looked like a two horse race after the first 3 rounds, things have exploded with Bont starting to recede, Daicos taking back top spot and the contenders making up ground.
Round 4
The Bont $2.50 has moved into outright favourite again after another Bulldogs win over Easter while Zak Butters $17, Caleb Serong $17 and Bailey Smith $17 all improved their odds.
Round 3
This has turned into a 2 horse race with Marcus Bontempelli and Nick Daicos neck and neck at $3.00 which creates opportunity to grab another player should anything happen to the front runners.
Zak Butters $21 is the front runner as he continues to score points in a flailing team while Caleb Serong $26 and Bailey Smith $26 have been extremely consistent in the middle for their respective teams.
Zak Butters $21 is the front runner as he continues to score points in a flailing team while Caleb Serong $26 and Bailey Smith $26 have been extremely consistent in the middle for their respective teams.
Round 2
Marcus Bontempelli $3.25 has taken over as favourite to win the Brownlow after some outstanding performances to start the season. The Bulldogs have been a major surprise packet and given injuries to key players in other teams, he is currently the main contender to Nick Daicos.
Christian Petracca $34 is set to miss at least 3-4 weeks with injury which would likely see him not play enough games to beat the eventual winner.
Round 1
Errol Gulden falls out of the list after an injury will see him miss a chunk of time. Marcus Bontempelli $5 has shortened dramatically and is currently the main contender for Nick Daicos $4.
Christian Petracca $6 and Noah Andersson $17 are popular among bettors given the success of the Suns but are likely to continue stealing points from eachother.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera $21 has cooled after a quiet performance in Round 1.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera $21 has cooled after a quiet performance in Round 1.
Opening Round
Nick Daicos solidified his stance as Brownlow favourite with a 41 disposal performance in the Pies Opening Round win over St Kilda. Christian Petracca $13 has shortened significantly as has Errol Gulden $15 and Finn Callaghan $26.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera $13 is still third favourite but has drifted from the leaders.
Early Predictions
Nick Daicos finished 2nd for the 2nd year in a row (finished 3rd in 2023) and is the favourite to take out the award in 2026. With his haul of 32 votes he became the quickest player to reach 100 votes and will be there again next season.
Bailey Smith polled 29 votes in just 22 matches for the Cats and will once again be a threat to take out the prestigious award. The Cats are one of the most dominant teams of the last decade and don't look like slowing down.
Noah Anderson, Matt Rowell's running mate and Suns club captain polled 25 votes with many believing he was owed a few that went to Rowell throughout the season. Expect umpires to have their eye on the energetic sun in 2026.
Ryan is an Australian sports content writer, producing insights and analysis for NRL, AFL and Basketball. He is also our YouTube host and presenter, can be found on Bets.com.au and is also a co-founder of The Sport Cap and The Basketball Fix.
From humble beginnings in Western Sydney growing up playing and refereeing Rugby League to running European wide Australian Rules Football tournaments there is a mountain of experience in between.
Multiple trips to North America has also deepened the love for the four major US sports and a continuing dream to catch as much live action as possible.
Stats and data analysis has now outgrown the hobby tag and the countless models and simulations are now being put to good use writing previews and predictions for NRL.
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