2026 Brownlow Medal Betting Tips - Top predictions for AFL's big vote night
The 2026 Brownlow Medal is virtually secured by Nick Daicos, but there are exciting alternative betting markets for punters. Patrick Cripps is tipped as a safe Top 5 pick, while Luke Jackson offers strong odds for a Top 10 finish thanks to his standout season. Clayton Oliver, now at GWS, is recommended for a Top 20 bet due to his high contest numbers. The First Four prediction—Daicos, Bontempelli, Cripps, and Newcombe—presents an enticing option for those seeking greater value.
- Nick Daicos is the overwhelming Brownlow favourite; focus shifts to exotic markets.
- Patrick Cripps (Top 5), Luke Jackson (Top 10), and Clayton Oliver (Top 20) are top betting picks.
- Best value First Four: Daicos, Bontempelli, Cripps, Newcombe.
The 2026 Brownlow Medal is expected to be all done and dusted with Nick Daicos winning again, but there is plenty of betting markets away from the outright winner.
Daicos is just $1.01 for the Brownlow and is unbackable. But the Top 5, Top 10, Top 20 and First Four betting markets all offer alternative ways into the count, and we've picked out our best Brownlow exotic bets below.
Brownlow Medal Top 5 Prediction - Patrick Cripps
Patrick Cripps looks one of the safer exotic plays on the night and $1.68 appeals for him to finish inside the Top 5.
The Carlton skipper has already established himself as one of the great Brownlow vote-getters of the modern era, winning the medal twice and producing a record-breaking 45-vote count in 2024.
His 2026 season again carries the statistical profile that umpires have traditionally rewarded averaging 14.4 contested possessions and 7.5 clearances per game while also kicking 16 goals.
Those numbers put him right amongst the AFL's elite inside midfielders and closely resemble the profile of recent Brownlow winners.
There may be players with bigger disposal numbers, but Cripps' combination of contested ball, clearances, scoreboard involvement and proven umpire appeal makes him difficult to leave out of the leading handful.
Brownlow Medal Top 10 Prediction - Luke Jackson
Luke Jackson singlehandedly won Fremantle multiple games this season, turning momentum with his hitouts and extreme athletic ability.
Jackson averaged 25.7 hitouts per game and ranked 3rd amongst all rucks with 18.7 Disposals per game. The Unicorn scored 27 goals, 2nd most of any ruckman in the AFL.
There are likely to be a bunch of players that post votes from Freo this season but Jackson was consistently one of the best and looking down the list, outperformed many of his peers higher up the odds rankings.
Brownlow Medal Top 20 Prediction - Clayton Oliver
Clayton Oliver is one of the more interesting outsiders in the exotic markets and $3.75 for a Top 20 finish looks worth a play.
Oliver may no longer carry the same Brownlow hype as he did during his peak Melbourne years, but his first season at GWS produced exactly the sort of inside numbers that have traditionally attracted votes.
He averaged 30.2 disposals, 14.9 contested possessions and 7.3 clearances from 23 matches. Of the leading midfielders in our statistical comparison, Oliver ranked No.1 for contested possessions per game and sat behind only Matt Rowell and Patrick Cripps for clearances.
The potential concern is vote competition in a GWS side containing Finn Callaghan, Toby Greene and several other players capable of producing standout games, while the Giants picked up just 10 wins for the season.
However, Oliver's work around stoppages gives him a strong chance of outperforming market expectations.
Brownlow Medal First Four - Daicos / Bontempelli / Cripps / Newcombe
The First Four market looks an ideal way to attack a Brownlow count where Nick Daicos appears to hold a clear advantage over the field.
Nick Daicos is impossible to leave out. His 34.7 disposals per game, 147 coaches votes and 26 goals give him an enormous number of high-end performances capable of producing maximum votes.
Marcus Bontempelli gets the second slot. He amassed 109 coaches votes, kicked 31 goals and averaged 26.6 disposals, 11.5 contested possessions and 5.9 clearances. His ability to dominate games both around stoppages and forward of centre remains a major advantage when votes are being handed out.
Patrick Cripps comes next. His disposal average may be below Daicos and several other leading contenders, but his 14.4 contested possessions and 7.5 clearances per game are much more closely aligned with the statistical profile of recent Brownlow winners. Add his remarkable polling history and he again looks capable of pushing towards 30 votes.
The value inclusion is Jai Newcombe.
Newcombe averaged 25.8 disposals but, more importantly, produced 12.8 contested possessions and 7.4 clearances per game, while collecting 74 coaches votes across the season.
Those clearance and contested-possession numbers put him in elite company and are exactly the type of statistics that have featured prominently in the seasons of recent Brownlow winners.
There will naturally be some competition for Hawthorn votes, but Newcombe's work at the coalface should make him difficult for the umpires to miss when he plays well.
Daicos is the obvious anchor, while Bontempelli and Cripps have long-established Brownlow credentials. Newcombe is the one who can add some real value to the combination.
Verdict
Patrick Cripps has been one of the best vote getters over the past 5 years, lock him in for Top 5.
Luke Jackson is at great odds to finish inside the Top 10 while we pick up Clayton Oliver for a Top 20 finish.
Daicos, Bontempelli, Cripps and Newcombe make up our First Four prediction.
Daicos, Bontempelli, Cripps and Newcombe make up our First Four prediction.
Patrick Cripps
Top 5
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Luke Jackson
Top 10
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Clayton Oliver
Top 20
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Boxed First Four
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Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.
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