Geelong Cats vs Essendon Tips - Geelong to hand Essendon another hefty defeat at the Cattery
Geelong Cats are poised for another commanding performance as they host Essendon at GMHBA Stadium. With a red-hot streak of three wins and a dominant home record, Geelong is expected to control the game and deliver a significant margin. Essendon has struggled defensively against top teams, losing the last seven matches against top-eight sides by big margins. Key Cats like Bailey Smith, Shannon Neale, and Shaun Mannagh are tipped for standout games, making Geelong a strong pick to cover a 55.5-point line.
- Geelong has won their last nine matches against Essendon by an average of 55 points.
- Essendon has lost seven straight to top-eight teams by nearly 70 points per game.
- Smith, Neale, and Mannagh are poised for standout performances, making Geelong a strong favorite.
Geelong Cats vs Essendon Preview
- Geelong Cats vs Essendon Preview
- Head to Head
- Geelong Cats Form Analysis
- Essendon Form Analysis
- Geelong Cats Team News
- Essendon Team News
Geelong will continue their charge towards the top four with a percentage boosting win over bottom placed Essendon on Saturday.
The Cats have won three matches in a row to sit in 7th position, just one win behind 4th placed Adelaide, and now returns to its fortress at GMHBA Stadium, where it has won 10 of its past 11 matches.
With the Cats chasing a double chance and the Bombers anchored to the foot of the ladder, expect the home side to control proceedings from the outset.
Bailey Smith is set for another big haul of disposals, while the Cats forward line of Shannon Neale and Oliver Henry will get their fare share of chances.
Essendon simply hasn't been able to withstand sustained pressure against the AFL's better teams with sides like Adelaide and Hawthorn slicing through their defensive structure with ease in recent weeks.
Dean Solomon's side has struggled to defend transition and faces a Geelong outfit that has averaged 115 points across its past 11 home matches. The Cats' small forwards have rediscovered their trademark running patterns, while Neale has embraced the role as Geelong's primary key target during Jeremy Cameron's absence.
Neale and Shaun Mannagh loom as the biggest threats inside 50. Neale has kicked seven goals in his past two matches against Essendon and arrives after another two-goal performance against Collingwood, while Mannagh continues to thrive alongside Geelong's emerging tall forwards.
Smith will enjoy a day out in the Round 22 match against a Bombers midfield that has allowed opposition on-ballers to accumulate consistently throughout 2026. Everything points towards another polished Geelong performance as the Cats continue to build momentum approaching September.
Take Geelong in a slightly adjusted line around 55.5 points in Same Game Multis, with Shaun Mannagh and Shannon Neale to kick 3+ goals and Bailey Smith for 35+ disposals.
- Geelong have won the past nine against Essendon by an average of 55 points.
- The Cats have averaged 113 points per game at the venue in their last 12 matches.
- Essendon have lost their past seven matches to top eight opponents by an average of 70 points
- Shannon Neale has kicked seven goals in his past two matches against Essendon.
- Shaun Mannagh has kicked three goals in both of his two matches against the Bombers.
Head to Head
Geelong have dominated Essendon in recent times, taking out the past nine by an average margin of 55 points.
Standout player performances in the recent head to heads have come from:
- Bailey Smith (Cats)- 31 and 41 disposals in his two matches as a Cat against Essendon
- James Worpel (Cats)- 25+ disposals in his past two matches against the Bombers.
- Liam McMahon (Dons)- four goals in his only match against Geelong.
- Shannon Neale (Cats)- seven goals from his past two matches against Essendon.
- Shaun Mannagh (Cats)- three goals in each of his past two matches against the Bombers.
Geelong Cats Form Analysis
Geelong has rediscovered its best football at the perfect time of the season, winning three consecutive matches to climb firmly back into finals calculations. The Cats followed their impressive victory over Melbourne with a polished 25-point win over Collingwood, a performance built around a blistering first half that showcased the attacking brand Chris Scott has been searching for over recent weeks. Geelong finished with 67 inside 50s, dominated forward-half territory and generated 62 points from forward-half chains, highlighting just how effectively they controlled field position.
The emergence of Geelong's younger forwards has been equally encouraging. Shannon Neale has embraced the responsibility of leading the forward line during Jeremy Cameron's absence, while Jay Polkinghorne continues to impress after forcing his way into the senior side following outstanding VFL form. Combined with the running power of Gryan Miers, Ollie Dempsey and Shaun Mannagh, Geelong now possesses multiple dangerous avenues to goal rather than relying solely on Cameron.
Returning to GMHBA Stadium further strengthens Geelong's claims. The Cats have won 10 of their past 11 matches at the venue and have averaged 115 points across that stretch.
Essendon Form Analysis
Essendon's difficult season has continued over the past fortnight with heavy defeats against Hawthorn and Adelaide exposing many of the issues that have persisted throughout 2026. The Bombers remain anchored to the bottom of the ladder with just two victories and have now lost seven consecutive matches against sides currently sitting inside the top half of the competition by an average margin approaching 70 points.
The 72-point loss to Adelaide was another frustrating afternoon. Essendon matched the Crows for large periods around general play, breaking even in disposals and registering 49 inside 50s, but their forward entries lacked efficiency while Adelaide repeatedly punished defensive turnovers.
There have still been a handful of encouraging individual performances. Zach Merrett continues to carry an enormous workload through the midfield and has now produced at least 28 disposals in seven of his past 10 matches. Peter Wright has enjoyed an excellent month inside 50, kicking 12 goals across his past four games including a six-goal haul against Adelaide despite limited supply. Archie Roberts and Will Setterfield have also continued to find plenty of the football, but the Bombers simply haven't been able to convert midfield possession into scoreboard pressure.
Perhaps the biggest concern heading to GMHBA Stadium is Essendon's inability to slow opposition midfielders. The Bombers concede more disposals than any side in the competition, regularly allowing elite ball users to accumulate uncontested possession through the corridor. Against a Geelong midfield featuring Bailey Smith, James Worpel and Tom Atkins, that shapes as a significant mismatch. Unless Essendon can dramatically improve its defensive pressure and transition defence, another difficult afternoon appears likely.
Geelong Cats Team News
Patrick Dangerfield is expected to be available but Max Holmes remains on the sidelines. Rhys Stanley missed last week with calf tightness but is expected to be available after Round 22.
Essendon Team News
Angus Clarke will miss with concussion, while Jordan Ridley and Sullivan Robey continue to miss. Jye Caldwell is a chance to return, while Elijah Tsatas continues to play well in the VFL but can’t get a look in.
Verdict
Take Geelong to cover the big line with Smith, Mannagh and Neale cashing in
Geelong -64.5
Line
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Bailey Smith 35+
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Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.
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