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Hawthorn vs Brisbane Lions Preliminary Final Tips- Lions set up three-peat with win over Hawks

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Mon 14 Sep 2026 02:03

Adam Cusworth 2 hours ago

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Brisbane Lions have won last 3 games vs Hawthorn, including a 67-point Round 22 victory.
Lions' multi-faceted attack and MCG form make them favorites to advance.
Hawthorn's pressure is key, but Brisbane's scoring power could decide the outcome.

Brisbane were dominant winners the last time they played Hawthorn (Getty Images)

Hawthorn vs Brisbane Lions Preliminary Final Preview

Brisbane will overcome Hawthorn and keep their three-peat chances alive with a win in the Preliminary Final at the MCG on Saturday.

These are two of the most successful AFL clubs of the modern era and there is another chapter to be written on Saturday.

Hawthorn earned fourth spot and then produced a superb Qualifying Final performance to defeat minor premiers Fremantle by 32 points at Optus Stadium. Brisbane took the longer route after a shock 53-point loss to Sydney in their Qualifying Final, but the response was emphatic as they blew Adelaide away by 53 points to book a fifth consecutive Preliminary Final appearance.

The Hawks have the pressure game to make this difficult, but the concern is whether they can contain Brisbane when the Lions generate one of their trademark scoring bursts. Adelaide found that out in the Semi Final, with Brisbane kicking five goals in the opening seven minutes and 13 seconds.

The Lions have the ability to turn a tight game into a sizeable margin in a matter of minutes and have too many avenues to goal for Hawthorn to concentrate on one or two players.

Brisbane have the scoring power and variety to break this game open, even if Hawthorn are able to make it a pressure battle early. The Hawks were outstanding defensively against Fremantle, but Brisbane present a much broader challenge with multiple dangerous forwards and the ability to score quickly from both turnover and stoppage.

The Lions can hurt Hawthorn in the air through Logan Morris and Eric Hipwood, while Charlie Cameron, Kai Lohmann, Zac Bailey and Cam Rayner give them speed and power at ground level. If Hawthorn's pressure drops even slightly, Brisbane have the weapons to turn a tight contest into a sizeable margin very quickly.

That was evident when the sides met in Round 22, with Brisbane's pressure forcing Hawthorn into hurried possession before the Lions pulled away to a 67-point win. The Hawks can match them around the contest, but Brisbane have more avenues to goal and more ways to generate momentum.

The MCG also holds no fears for the Lions, and their recent scoring record at the venue adds to the confidence. Back Brisbane to absorb Hawthorn's pressure and advance to another Grand Final.

Take the Lions in the head to head with Neale and Cameron producing starring roles.

Brisbane have won their past three matches against Hawthorn and were 67-point victors over the Hawks as recently as Round 22.
Lachie Neale had 35 disposals in the most recent head to head.
Dylan Moore has kicked at least one goal in each of his past five matches against the Lions and booted two in the Qualifying Final
Charlie Cameron comes off a five-goal haul last weekend

Hawthorn vs Brisbane Head to Head

Brisbane have won the past three matches against Hawthorn, reversing a run that saw the Hawks win the previous five meetings.

The most recent clash came in Round 22 this season, when Brisbane produced a dominant 67-point victory at the Gabba. Logan Morris kicked four goals, Eric Hipwood three and Charlie Cameron two, while Will Ashcroft had 39 disposals and Lachie Neale 35.

Brisbane also won both meetings in 2025, including a 33-point victory at the MCG in Round 11.

Standout player performances in the recent head to heads have come from;

Lachie Neale (Lions)- has had 29+ disposals in each of his past four games against Hawthorn, including 35 when the sides last met.
Will Ashcroft (Lions)- has recorded 26+ disposals in his past three against Hawthorn, including a huge 39-disposal performance in Round 22 this year.
Jai Newcombe (Hawks)- has registered 23+ disposals in all six career games against Brisbane and had 25 disposals and 11 clearances despite Hawthorn's heavy loss in Round 22.
Dylan Moore (Hawks)- has kicked at least one goal in each of his past five games against Brisbane.
Charlie Cameron (Lions)- has kicked 15 goals in his past six games against Hawthorn, booting multiple goals in five of those six.
Logan Morris (Lions)- has kicked nine goals in four career games against Hawthorn, including four when the sides met in Round 22.

Hawthorn Form Analysis

Hawthorn enter the Preliminary Final with momentum after producing one of their best performances of the season to defeat minor premiers Fremantle by 32 points at Optus Stadium. The Hawks led by 33 points at half-time and restricted the Dockers to just five goals despite finishing with fewer disposals and inside 50s. Their pressure was the difference, with 10 tackles inside 50 before half-time and repeated Fremantle turnovers. James Sicily was outstanding with 26 disposals, 10 marks and 12 intercept possessions, while Will Day had 24 disposals and a game-high 14 contested possessions in his first AFL final.

The Hawks have now won their past two matches by a combined 94 points after defeating West Coast by 62 points in Round 24 before accounting for Fremantle. Their forward line continues to have multiple avenues to goal, with Nick Watson, Dylan Moore and Jack Gunston kicking two each against the Dockers, while Mabior Chol, Jack Ginnivan and Mitch Lewis also hit the scoreboard. Watson has been particularly dangerous during the second half of the season, while Jai Newcombe remains a major figure around the contest.

Hawthorn now return to the MCG, where their overall 2026 record is strong, but there have been some warning signs against better opposition. Their recent run at the venue has included losses to Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs and two draws against Collingwood, while they were not entirely convincing in their win over GWS. The Hawks do, however, have an imposing finals record at the ground when facing travelling opposition, having won their past six MCG finals against interstate sides. The challenge is producing the same relentless pressure they showed against Fremantle against a Brisbane team that has already exposed them once this season.

Hawthorn Team News

Hawthorn came through the Qualifying Final without a listed match-day injury, although Mitch Lewis hurt his shoulder during the contest and required attention before returning to finish the game. Will Day also came through his first AFL final strongly after an injury-interrupted build-up to September, producing 24 disposals and 14 contested possessions. With the Hawks earning the week off, they should have a largely settled side available for the Preliminary Final.

Brisbane Lions Form Analysis

Brisbane responded emphatically to their shock Qualifying Final defeat against Sydney, demolishing Adelaide by 53 points in the Semi Final. The Lions kicked five goals in the opening seven minutes and 13 seconds – the fastest opening five-goal burst this century – and had 10 inside 50s for 5.2 before Adelaide recorded its first entry. The Crows briefly reduced the margin to 10 points in the second term, but Brisbane absorbed the challenge before exploding again, eventually winning 21.18 (144) to 13.13 (91). Will Ashcroft had 30 disposals and six clearances, while Charlie Cameron kicked five goals and Zac Bailey three.

The performance was much closer to what Brisbane had produced during the latter part of the home-and-away season. The Lions recovered from a 6-6 start to win nine of their next 10 matches and secured third spot before finals, including a 67-point demolition of Hawthorn and a 63-point win over Collingwood at the MCG in the final three rounds. They scored 159 points against the Magpies and their ability to generate goals in clusters has become one of their biggest weapons. That scoring power is spread across the forward line rather than relying on one key target, with Cameron, Morris, Hipwood, Bailey, Rayner and Lohmann all capable of taking over a game.

Brisbane's recent record at the MCG is another major positive heading into Saturday. They have averaged around 120 points across their past four appearances at the ground and have repeatedly shown that the wide expanses suit their running game. Their Round 22 win over Hawthorn also provides a tactical blueprint. Despite losing the raw clearance count, Brisbane's pressure around the ball forced Hawthorn into hurried possessions and turnovers, while Neale had 35 disposals and Ashcroft 39. Morris kicked four goals, Cameron two and Hipwood three as the Hawks struggled to contain Brisbane both in the air and at ground level. If the Lions bring the same energy, pressure and forward-half movement they produced against Adelaide, they will be extremely difficult to stop.

Brisbane Lions Team News

Logan Morris finished the Semi Final on the bench with ice on his calf after kicking two goals and will need to be monitored during the week. Noah Answerth missed the win over Adelaide, with Ryan Lester effectively taking his role in the defensive set-up and Ty Gallop returning to the side as an additional tall defender. Answerth's availability will be particularly important given he held Nick Watson goalless when Brisbane defeated Hawthorn in Round 22. If Answerth is ready to return, Brisbane will have a selection decision to make, with Gallop and Darcy Gardiner among the defenders competing for places in a side that otherwise came through the Adelaide victory in good shape.

Verdict

Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions Preliminary Final

Lions in the head to head with Cameron and Neale turning it on. Dylan Moore amongst the goals for Hawks

Brisbane Lions

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One of Australia's top tipsters, Adam provides tips for horse racing every day of the week as well as AFL previews. He is one of the top ranked experts on the Great Tip Off each month and has featured on Blackbook, Punters, Racingbase and many more.

Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.