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Hawthorn vs North Melbourne AFL Betting Tips - Hawks to dominate Roos in Round 21

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Thu 30 Jul 2026 14:21

Adam Cusworth 30 Jul 2026

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Hawthorn have won their last 3 games by an average of 75 points
North Melbourne have lost 4 in a row and struggle to score
Nick Watson and Jack Ginnivan are tipped for multiple goals

Hawthorn vs North Melbourne Verdict
Head to Head Stats
Hawthorn Form - Flying Hawks
North Melbourne Form - 4 Defeats In A Row
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne Team News

Hawthorn vs North Melbourne Verdict

Hawthorn have been given a huge 35.5-point line to cover against North Melbourne, but the Hawks should be up to it. They have won their past three matches by 64, 70 and 93 points and can continue that red-hot form.

Hawthorn have won their past three matches by an average margin of 75 points.
The Hawks have won seven straight against the Kangaroos with the last four by an average of 75 points.
Nick Watson has kicked three goals in his two matches against the Roos.
Jack Ginnivan has kicked 2+ goals in each of his five matches against North Melbourne.

Head to Head Stats

Hawthorn have taken out the past seven against North Melbourne and have not lost to the Kangaroos since Sam Mitchell has been coach, meaning that his former master Alastair Clarkson is yet to register a win over his protege.

The past four have been by an average of 75 points.

Hawthorn Form - Flying Hawks

Hawthorn have a win-loss record of 13-5 as well as a draw and are just two points behind 2nd placed Sydney.

They come off a 93 point win over Essendon and have won their past three by big margins with the win over the Bombers following 64 and 70-point victories over Carlton and Richmond.

A number of big name Hawks feasted against Essendon last weekend with Jack Gunston kicking seven goals, while Jarman Impey had the ball on a string from half-back with 37 disposals. Five further Hawks had 25+ including Josh Ward (33) and Connor McDonald.

The Hawks have been a high scoring side in recent times, averaging 109 points per game from their past six matches.

The Hawks travel to Launceston for the fourth time this season and lost their last match at the venue to Melbourne by 35 points.

North Melbourne Form - 4 Defeats In A Row

North Melbourne come into Round 21 with an 8-11 win-loss record and have lost their past four with their top 10 hopes all but gone after dropping their Round 20 match to St Kilda by 31 points.

They could not contain Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera last weekend, while they were smashed in the clearances 41-23, leading to the 8.14.62 to 13.15.93 scoreline.

Scoring has been an issue for the Kangas, averaging just 67 points per game in theit last eight matches.

The Kangaroos have lost their five matches this season to top six opponents by an average of 48 points but that figure is inflated due to their 124 point loss to Fremantle in Round 13.

Hawthorn vs North Melbourne Team News

First-round draft pick Aidan Schubert will make his AFL debut as Hawthorn's eighth debutant of the season. Finn Maginness also returns, while Mitch Lewis and Noah Mraz both miss through injury.

Roos coach Alastair Clarkson has recalled Wil Dawson and Tom Blamires after omitting Matt Whitlock and Cooper Harvey following last week's defeat.

Verdict

Hawthorn v North Melbourne

Hawthorn to cover the big line with Nick Watson and Jack Ginnivan to be amongst the goals.

Hawthorn -35.5

Line

@7/8 - 1 Unit

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Nick Watson

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Jack Ginnivan

To Score 2+ goals

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One of Australia's top tipsters, Adam provides tips for horse racing every day of the week as well as AFL previews. He is one of the top ranked experts on the Great Tip Off each month and has featured on Blackbook, Punters, Racingbase and many more.

Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.