Melbourne vs Carlton Wildcard Tips - Carlton’s wild ride to continue with win over the Demons
Carlton faces Melbourne in the AFL Wildcard weekend after a remarkable turnaround under coach Josh Fraser, winning 11 of their last 14 games. Although the Demons finished higher on the ladder, they are beset by key injuries and suspensions. Carlton’s dynamic midfield, led by Sam Walsh, is in peak form and could exploit Melbourne's defensive gaps. Both teams are in high-scoring form, but the Blues' aggressive ball movement and recent record suggest they have the momentum. Expect a fast-paced, attacking contest with Carlton narrowly favored.
- Carlton have gone 11-2-1 since Josh Fraser took over as coach.
- Melbourne is weakened by key injuries and suspensions for the Wildcard clash.
- Both teams average over 100 points recently, but Carlton’s momentum gives them the edge.
Melbourne vs Carlton Preview
- Melbourne vs Carlton Preview
- Head to Head
- Melbourne Form Analysis
- Melbourne Team News
- Carlton Form Analysis
- Carlton Team News
Carlton’s stunning revival will continue when they take on Melbourne in Wildcard weekend.
The Demons dropped into the wildcard spot with their loss to the Bulldogs last weekend, qualifying in 7th spot with a 15-8 win-loss record, while Carlton’s win over Fremantle saw them end with 12 wins, 10 losses and a draw to sit in 10th.
The Blues have been the best-performed side in the competition since Josh Fraser took over, going 11-2-1 across their past 14 matches, and there is little reason to expect them to change what has been working.
Carlton have developed an ability to absorb opposition momentum before responding, but it is their method with the ball that can give Melbourne problems. The Blues are increasingly comfortable changing angles and moving laterally before attacking inside 50, rather than simply sending the ball long to a contest. That has helped create separation between their forwards and opened space ahead of the ball, while Sam Walsh, Patrick Cripps and Jagga Smith give them the midfield power to generate those opportunities from stoppage.
That ball movement could be particularly important against a Melbourne outfit that are set to be missing several key pieces. Jake Lever, Matthew Jefferson and Daniel Turner are all unlikely to be available, while Jacob van Rooyen is unavailable through suspension.
Melbourne still possess enormous strength around the contest through Max Gawn and Kozzie Pickett, but the Bulldogs showed last weekend that the Demons can be opened up when an opponent works through their pressure and then uses teammates effectively in front of centre. Carlton’s willingness to keep the ball alive, spread from stoppage and find free players ahead of the play gives them a pathway to do the same.
That should also help make this a high-scoring contest. Carlton’s game has become more aggressive once they win control, with their midfielders looking to break forward from stoppage and create numbers ahead of the ball. Walsh in particular has been damaging when powering through stoppage, while the Blues have enough different forward options to punish Melbourne if their defensive structure breaks down.
At the other end, Melbourne remain dangerous when Gawn can give their midfield first use, with Pickett’s clean work at centre bounce capable of producing quick entries before Carlton can organise behind the ball.
That midfield dynamic also makes the Walsh and Pickett disposal markets appealing. With both sides possessing midfielders capable of turning contested possession into immediate attack, Carlton can edge the contest, with Walsh reaching 30+ disposals and Pickett 25+ as the Blues’ remarkable run continues into an Elimination Final against Adelaide in Adelaide.
- Both sides are averaging over 100 points in their past five matches
- Carlton have won 11, drawn one and lost three matches since Fraser took over, Melbourne are 9-5 in that period
- Kozzie Pickett had 33 disposals the last time the two sides met.
- Sam Walsh has had 30+ disposals in his past three matches against Melbourne
Head to Head
Melbourne and Carlton met just once in 2026 with that match going the way of the Demons back in Round 3 by 23 points. They trailed by 34 at half-time before pouring on 14 goals to four in the second half. Carlton won the four matches prior to that between the two sides, including the 2023 Semi Final by two points.
Standout player performances in the recent head to heads have come from;
- Kozzie Pickett (Dees)- 33 disposals and a goal in the most recent meeting
- Sam Walsh (Blues)- 30+ disposals in his past three matches against the Demons
Melbourne Form Analysis
Melbourne have won 10 of 12 at the MCG this season but have lost two of their past three at the venue. The Demons finished 7th on the ladder with a 15-8 win-loss record and have won six of their past eight matches.
The Demons went down 108-87 to the Western Bulldogs last weekend but continue to score heavily, averaging 110 points across their past eight matches. Their forward line continues to produce multiple avenues to goal, with Harrison Petty kicking three against the Bulldogs, while Tom McDonald and Bayley Fritsch kicked two apiece. Petty has kicked 2+ goals in eight consecutive matches and has 17 across his past six appearances at the MCG, while Fritsch has kicked 2+ in his past five.
Max Gawn was Melbourne’s best against the Bulldogs with 28 disposals, 59 hitouts and 10 clearances, albeit against a side without a recognised frontline ruckman. Kozzie Pickett was also prominent with 26 disposals, seven clearances and a goal. Gawn has recorded 25+ disposals in three of his past four matches, while Pickett has had 24+ in his past three.
Melbourne Team News
Melbourne have concerns surrounding Matthew Jefferson and Daniel Turner ahead of the Wildcard Final. Jefferson failed to finish the loss to the Bulldogs after hyperextending his knee, while Turner hurt his knee during the first quarter before returning to play out the match. Both are set for scans and will need to prove their fitness. The Demons will also be without Jake Lever (foot) and Jacob van Rooyen through suspension.
Carlton Form Analysis
Carlton finished 10th on the ladder with a 12-10-1 win-loss-draw record. Josh Fraser took over as coach mid-season and the Blues have gone 11-2-1 since then. Interestingly, the two losses came at the MCG against Collingwood by 21 points and Hawthorn by 64, with Carlton holding a 4-4 win-loss record at the venue in 2026.
Fremantle already had top spot secured last weekend and rested several players, but it was still hard not to be impressed by Carlton’s 119-82 victory. The Blues overcame an early four-goal deficit before taking control and are now averaging 114 points per game across their past five matches.
There continues to be an excellent spread of contributors, with Francis Evans kicking five goals against Fremantle, Brodie Kemp and Ben Ainsworth three apiece and Harry McKay two. Kemp has kicked 11 goals across his past four matches, while McKay has kicked 2+ in four consecutive appearances.
Carlton’s midfield is also in excellent touch. Sam Walsh had 31 disposals against Fremantle, with Jagga Smith also recording 31 and Patrick Cripps 24 as the Blues controlled the engine room. Walsh has recorded 25+ disposals in seven consecutive matches and 30+ in his past two, George Hewett has had 26+ in his past four and Smith has recorded 25+ in five of his past six.
Carlton Team News
Carlton came through the win over Fremantle without any fresh injuries and could regain Will Hayward and Nick Haynes for the Wildcard Final. Hayward missed Round 24 after jarring his ankle against the Bulldogs and had been targeting a return this week, while Haynes was listed as a test with an ankle injury. Zac Williams remains less certain as he recovers from a fractured larynx, while Nic Newman remains sidelined.
Verdict
Carlton in the head to head with the total points going over. Pickett and Walsh best for player props
Carlton
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Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.
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