Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood Wildcard Tips - Pies to get upper hand in Wildcard thriller
The upcoming Wildcard Final at the MCG sees Collingwood take on the Western Bulldogs after both teams finished just inside the top 10. Despite the Bulldogs' stronger end-of-season form and position, Collingwood is tipped to narrowly edge the contest thanks to superior turnover play and key players like Nick Daicos and Tim Membrey. While both sides are hit by injuries, midfield battles and forward efficiency will likely decide this close match. The teams’ recent meetings have all been tight, suggesting another thriller is in store.
- Collingwood tipped to win a close Wildcard Final despite recent form.
- Midfield battles and player injuries could decide the match outcome.
- Daicos and Membrey expected to be key for the Pies.
Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood Preview
- Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood Preview
- Head to Head
- Western Bulldogs Form Analysis
- Western Bulldogs Team News
- Collingwood Form Analysis
- Collingwood Team News
Collingwood will edge past the Western Bulldogs in a wildcard thriller on Friday evening at the MCG.
The Magpies finished 9th on the ladder with 12 wins, nine losses and two draws, but come into the clash off a disappointing 63-point loss to Brisbane. The Bulldogs edged them on the ladder, finishing 8th after their 19-point win over Melbourne at the MCG last weekend, and take the stronger momentum into the knockout clash.
Despite that, Collingwood have the tools to turn things around. The Magpies are at their best when they force rushed exits, regain possession higher up the ground and attack before the opposition can reset. Their ability to generate scores from turnover can trouble a Bulldogs side that have become more conservative with the ball.
The battle around stoppage will be just as important. The Bulldogs have relied heavily on Ed Richards and Marcus Bontempelli through the middle, particularly with Tom Liberatore sidelined and Tim English under an injury cloud. Collingwood can challenge them with Jordan De Goey's power around the contest and Nick Daicos' ability to win possession before staying involved as the ball moves into space. Daicos' capacity to repeatedly link through transition makes 35+ disposals worth backing.
Collingwood's ability to defend the ground should also help keep this close. The Magpies can slow the Bulldogs' transition by getting numbers behind the ball and forcing them to attack through a set defence rather than allowing their speed to take over in open play. That becomes particularly important against Richards, Bailey Dale and Joel Freijah, who can hurt opposition sides when given space to carry the ball and connect from defence into attack.
At the other end, the Pies should look to stretch the Bulldogs defensively rather than relying on repeated high entries. Tim Membrey's movement gives them a different target alongside Dan McStay and can create difficult decisions for the Dogs' defenders, particularly if Collingwood move the ball quickly following turnover. Membrey to kick 2+ goals appeals if the Magpies can create enough one-on-one opportunities inside 50.
There is also reason to expect the margin to remain tight in the Wildcard Final. Both sides have enough midfield quality to prevent the other from controlling the contest for long periods, while the Bulldogs' more defensive approach should make it difficult for Collingwood to break the game open, while these two sides have a recent history of close matches.
- Collingwood claimed the most recent MCG meeting between the two sides.
- The average margin between the two sides in the past four meetings has been 10 points.
- Nick Daicos has averaged 36 disposals in his past three matches against the Bulldogs.
- Tim Membrey kicked three goals in the most recent meeting between the two sides and has kicked 2+ in eight of his past 10 matches.
Head to Head
Little separated the two sides when they met in Round 12 of 2026, the Western Bulldogs claiming victory at Marvel Stadium by four points. Collingwood took out the most recent MCG meeting by six points back in Round 2 last season. The past four between the two sides have been decided by 18 points or less.
Standout player performances in the recent head to heads have come from;
- Nick Daicos (Pies)- averaging 36 disposals in his past three matches against the Dogs.
- Tim Membrey (Pies)- three goals in the most recent head to head.
- Ed Richards (Dogs)- 24 disposals and two goals in the most recent meeting.
- Bailey Dale (Dogs)- averaging 31 disposals in his past three meetings against the Pies.
Western Bulldogs Form Analysis
The Western Bulldogs come off a 21-point win over Melbourne and finished 8th on the ladder with a 13-9-1 win-loss-draw record. Their draw came against Carlton a fortnight ago, while the Bulldogs have won both of their matches at the MCG this season, including a victory over Hawthorn at the venue in Round 13.
The Bulldogs were the highest-scoring side in the competition last season but have adopted a more defensive approach in 2026, averaging just 79 points per game across their past 11 matches. Their 108 points against Melbourne in Round 23 was their highest score since Round 7.
The Dogs' defensive structure has remained difficult to score against, while they were also more efficient going forward against the Demons, creating better opportunities closer to goal.
Ed Richards starred against Melbourne with 30 disposals, eight clearances and a goal after recording 31 disposals and two goals against Carlton the week prior. He has now recorded 25+ disposals in five consecutive matches. Marcus Bontempelli returned with 27 disposals and two goals against the Demons and has recorded 25+ in three of his past four appearances. Arty Jones kicked three goals against Melbourne, while Aaron Naughton kicked two before leaving the game with an ankle injury.
Western Bulldogs Team News
Aaron Naughton is in doubt for the Wildcard Final after suffering a lateral ligament injury to his ankle against Melbourne, although there remains hope he can recover in time. Tim English is also racing the clock after missing the past two matches with medial ligament damage to his left knee. Tom Liberatore is unlikely to feature after undergoing minor arthroscopic surgery to address persistent knee soreness, while Sam Darcy remains out for the season with an ACL injury.
Collingwood Form Analysis
Collingwood come off a 63-point loss to Brisbane at the MCG, conceding 159 points in the 159-96 defeat, the most the Magpies have conceded during Craig McRae’s time as coach. The result is difficult to gauge given Collingwood were locked into the wildcard round regardless of the result, while Brisbane needed victory to secure a top-four finish. The Magpies have now won just one of their past four matches, with a 92-92 draw against Hawthorn preceding the loss to the Lions.
Collingwood have struggled against the better sides this season, recording three wins, nine losses and two draws against top-10 opposition. The Magpies are averaging 97 points per game across their past nine matches and hold a 7-4-2 win-loss-draw record at the MCG in 2026. Their defensive performance against Brisbane was well below their usual level, with the Lions controlling the clearance battle and finding multiple avenues to goal.
Jordan De Goey was one of Collingwood’s best against Brisbane with 32 disposals, 10 score involvements and two goals, while Sam Swadling also had 32 disposals and a goal. Nick Daicos finished with 26 disposals and a goal before being managed in the final term, while Charlie West and Angus Anderson kicked three goals apiece. Nick Daicos has recorded 35+ disposals in five of his past six matches and Josh Daicos has had 27+ in his past four. Dan McStay was goalless against Brisbane but had kicked 2+ in each of his previous seven appearances for a total of 20 goals across that period.
Collingwood Team News
Collingwood will be without Scott Pendlebury and Brayden Maynard for the Wildcard Final. Pendlebury suffered a hamstring strain against Brisbane and is expected to miss two to three weeks, while Maynard sustained a grade one MCL strain in his left knee at training the following morning. The injuries are significant blows to an already depleted Collingwood side heading into the knockout clash.
Verdict
Take the Pies in a close one with Daicos and Membrey among the key contributers
Collingwood
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Nick Daicos 35+
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Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.
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