- Win Chance vs Payout Table
- Provably Fair Seed Verification Walkthrough
- Why Bots Do Not Beat the 1% House Edge
- Recent Big Wins on Dice
- Where to Play Dice
- Dice Variants
- The Single Biggest Mistake: Martingale at 50% Win Chance
- Responsible Gambling
- FAQs
TL;DR
- Payout formula: 99 / win-chance%. The 1% house edge is fixed at every possible setting.
- A 10-loss streak at 50% win chance occurs approximately once per 10,000 bets. Martingale requires $1,024 on bet 11.
- Win-chance selection is a pure variance choice. No setting improves expected return.
1 in 1,024. That is the probability of losing ten consecutive bets on Dice at 50% win chance. Over a session of 10,000 bets at 50% win chance, a run of ten consecutive losses is expected to occur approximately 9.8 times. Martingale players who double their stake after each loss reach their bankroll limit on those runs, converting a theoretical 1% house edge into a session-ending loss.
The Martingale on Dice is the most common bankroll-destroying strategy in the originals catalogue.
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1.00%
Dice house edge at every win-chance setting. Formula: Payout = 99 / win-chance%.
Win Chance vs Payout Table
Payout formula: Payout = 99 / Win-chance%
This formula embeds the 1% house edge at every possible setting. The expected value (EV) per unit staked is 0.99 regardless of which win chance is selected.
| Win chance | Payout | EV per $1 staked | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90% | 1.10x | $0.99 | Near-certain win, tiny payout |
| 75% | 1.32x | $0.99 | Common intermediate setting |
| 50% | 1.98x | $0.99 | Coin-flip setting |
| 25% | 3.96x | $0.99 | One-in-four win probability |
| 10% | 9.90x | $0.99 | High-risk, 9.9x payout |
| 5% | 19.80x | $0.99 | One-in-twenty win |
| 2% | 49.50x | $0.99 | One-in-fifty win |
| 1% | 99.00x | $0.99 | One-in-hundred win |
| 0.50% | 198.0x | $0.99 | One-in-two-hundred win |
| 0.10% | 990.0x | $0.99 | Rare, high payout |
| 0.01% | 9,900x | $0.99 | Near-lottery probability |
The EV column is identical for every row. Win-chance selection is a pure variance choice, not an expected-value choice. No win-chance setting improves your expected return.
Roll under or over: the Dice interface lets players choose roll-under or roll-over a threshold. The maths is symmetric. Roll under 50 and roll over 50 on a 100-point scale have identical probabilities and payouts.
Provably Fair Seed Verification Walkthrough
Dice uses the same provably fair system as all Stake Originals.
Before Betting
Stake displays the SHA-256 hash of the server seed. Record this hash. Change your client seed at any time before betting.
The Roll Calculation
When you place a Dice bet, the outcome is calculated by:
- Taking the HMAC-SHA-256 hash of: ServerSeed + ClientSeed + Nonce (nonce increments by 1 on every bet)
- Converting the first four bytes of the resulting hash to a hexadecimal number
- Taking that number modulo 10,001 to produce an integer from 0 to 10,000
- Dividing by 100 to produce a roll result from 0.00 to 100.00
If the roll result falls within your win range (e.g. below 50.00 for a 50% roll-under), you win.
After Betting: Verification Steps
- Retrieve your server seed (available once you click "rotate" in the fairness settings)
- Confirm the SHA-256 hash of that server seed matches the hash shown before betting
- Run HMAC-SHA-256(ServerSeed, ClientSeed + ":" + Nonce) yourself using any SHA-256 tool
- Convert the first 8 hex characters of the result to decimal, take modulo 10,001, divide by 100
- Confirm the result matches what Stake recorded for that bet
Stake provides this verification tool at stake.com under Settings > Fairness. Every historical Dice bet has a verification link in the bet history.
Why Bots Do Not Beat the 1% House Edge
Automated betting scripts on Dice (Martingale, Fibonacci, Labouchere) do not overcome the 1% house edge. The house edge is embedded in the payout formula. Every bet, regardless of the previous bet's outcome, has an EV of 0.99.
A bot running Martingale at 50% win chance produces high probability of many small wins and low probability of a large catastrophic loss. The catastrophic loss arrives when a losing streak exceeds the bot's staking capacity.
Consecutive losses at 50% win chance:
| Streak length | Probability | Multiplier required (Martingale) | Stake on this bet (starting $1) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 in a row | 1/32 = 3.125% | 2^5 = 32x | $32 |
| 10 in a row | 1/1,024 = 0.098% | 2^10 = 1,024x | $1,024 |
| 15 in a row | 1/32,768 = 0.003% | 2^15 = 32,768x | $32,768 |
| 20 in a row | 1/1,048,576 = 0.000095% | 2^20 = 1,048,576x | $1,048,576 |
A ten-loss streak at a 50% win chance occurs with a 0.098% probability per 10-bet sequence. Running 10,000 bets involves approximately 1,000 independent 10-bet sequences. The expected number of 10-loss streaks: 1,000 x 0.098% = 0.98, roughly one per 10,000 bets.
A bot doubling after each loss requires $1,024 on bet eleven of a 10-loss streak. With a $1,000 bankroll, the bot is wiped out. The bankroll blow probability at a 50% win chance after 10,000 bets for a Martingale starting at $1 with a $1,024 bankroll limit: approximately 63%. Not rare. Not unlikely. The near-certain outcome over enough bets.
The 1% house edge accumulates regardless of the staking system. Over 10,000 $1 bets, expected loss = $100. The Martingale does not reduce this. It concentrates the $100 expected loss into fewer but larger events.
Recent Big Wins on Dice
Recent dice wins are logged on our dedicated Big Wins page and updated as operator-confirmed payouts arrive.
Where to Play Dice
- Stake.com, NEWBONUS, Reference implementation; full 0.01%-99.99% win-chance range, $0.01 minimum stake, full seed verification per bet.
- Shuffle, MAXBONUS, Dice implementation with clean UI; full provably fair verification; stated 1% house edge.
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- Roobet, MAXBONUS, Dice and crash available; $20 free play on sign-up.
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- 1xbet, NEWBONUS, Dice-style originals available in broader catalogue.
- Mostbet, HUGE, Originals including crash-style and dice games; suitable for restricted markets.
Dice Variants
Stake Originals Dice (Reference)
0.01%-99.99% win-chance range. Roll-under or roll-over toggle. Payout = 99 / win-chance%. 1% house edge. Full provably fair verification.
Fast Dice
Some platforms offer a "fast" mode with instant results and auto-bet without animation delay. Identical maths: the 1% house edge applies in all modes.
Crash (Related Originals Game)
Crash is mechanically different from Dice but shares the provably fair system. A multiplier rises from 1x and can crash at any point. Players cash out before the crash. The expected multiplier follows 0.99 x (1 / crash-probability) at the cashout point. 1% house edge, provably fair.
The Single Biggest Mistake: Martingale at 50% Win Chance
A player running Martingale at a $1 starting stake with a $100 bankroll hits a 7-loss streak approximately once every 1,280 bets. That is a session wipeout after roughly two to three hours at ten bets per minute.
The Martingale on Dice at a 50% win chance looks safe until it is not. Starting at $1 and doubling after each loss, the bot grinds out small profits consistently until a losing streak of 10 or more hits, an event occurring approximately once per 10,000 bets at a 50% win chance. At that point, the required stake is $1,024. If the bankroll cannot cover it, the session ends with a total loss of the available bankroll.
Across any realistic session length, the probability of encountering a streak that exceeds the bankroll's coverage is high: not theoretical, but scheduled. The 1% house edge accumulates regardless. The Martingale concentrates the inevitable loss into fewer but more final events.
Responsible Gambling
Dice at 1% house edge is the most transparent game in the casino catalogue: the payout formula is visible, the house edge is explicit, and every outcome is verifiable. Every bet expects a 1% loss. Automated betting systems do not change this. Set a session budget and a maximum loss before enabling auto-bet.
If gambling is causing harm:
- GambleAware.org (UK and international)
- GamCare.org.uk: 0808 8020 133 (UK)
- BeGambleAware.org
- Gamblinghelponline.org.au (Australia)
- 1-800-GAMBLER (US)
18+ only. 21+ at Stake.us and Shuffle.us. T&Cs apply on all welcome offers.
FAQs
- Does changing my client seed affect my odds on Dice?
No. The client seed changes the specific sequence of outcomes you will receive, but the statistical distribution remains identical: 1% house edge at every win-chance setting. Changing your client seed does not give you a "fresh" sequence with better odds.
- What win chance produces the most even sessions?
Higher win-chance settings (70%-90%) produce more frequent wins and a narrower range of session outcomes. Lower win-chance settings (1%-10%) produce rare wins with high payouts and wide session variance. Neither is higher EV. Players who want more predictable sessions should use high win-chance settings.
- Is there a maximum win on Stake Originals Dice?
Yes. Stake publishes a maximum win cap per bet, typically $100,000 or equivalent in crypto. The payout formula (99 / win-chance%) means a 0.01% win-chance bet at $101 stake would theoretically pay $999,900; the cap prevents payouts above the operator's published maximum. Check the game info panel for the current cap at your stake level.
- Can I use the provably fair system to predict future Dice outcomes?
No. The server seed is not revealed until you rotate it. You see only the hash before betting. SHA-256 is a one-way function. After rotation, you can verify past bets but cannot predict future bets under the new server seed.
