Newcastle Knights vs North Queensland Cowboys NRL Betting Tips - Cowboys the play in NRL Round 1 opener
The Newcastle Knights will clash with the North Queensland Cowboys in a pivotal NRL season opener. Despite the Knights' previous struggles and internal changes, they aim to leverage new talent and a fresh strategy under coach Justin Holbrook. Meanwhile, the Cowboys, with a more stable roster, look to shake off last season’s disappointments. The Cowboys are predicted to cover the 4.5-point spread as favorites in a low-scoring match. Jaxon Purdue is highlighted as a potential key player to watch, with his impressive try-scoring record.
- Newcastle Knights vs North QLD Cowboys expert predictions for Sunday’s Round 1 NRL game
- Cowboys to maintain dominance over Knights
- Predicted low-scoring game with Cowboys as 4.5-point favorites
- Newcastle Knights vs North Queensland Cowboys Preview
- Head to Head
- Newcastle Knights Begin New Era
- Newcastle Knights Team News
- Newcastle Knights Team List
- North Queensland Cowboys To Bounce Back From 2025 Disappointment
- North Queensland Cowboys Team News
- North Queensland Cowboys Team List
Newcastle Knights vs North Queensland Cowboys Preview
The new NRL season gets underway in Las Vegas and I'm backing defences to be on top and for the game to follow a trend of under 42.5 points. The Cowboys having a more settled roster from last season and they can cover as the 4.5-point favourites.
- The Cowboys have won 5 straight matches against the Knights.
- 3 of the last 4 North Queensland victories over Newcastle have been by a 1-12 margin.
- 5 of the last 6 matches between the Knights and Cowboys have gone under the game total.
- Jaxon Purdue has scored 14 tries in 16 games when starting in the centres.
Head to Head
North Queensland have won their last five matches against Newcastle,although all of them played at QCB Stadium in Townsville.
The Cowboys ran away with a 38-4 victory over Newcastle in Round 24 in their only matchup of the 2025 season.
Six of the last eight matches between the Knights and Cowboys have hit the under on the game total.
Newcastle Knights Begin New Era
Despite having one of the most electrifying players in the game in Kalyn Ponga, the Knights were the worst attacking team in the NRL in 2025, averaging just 14 points per game and scoring over 20 points just 5 times all season.
It was a shame, because in the first half of the year they had one of the best defences in the competition, averaging just 18.8 points against in their first 15 matches, however it went pear-shaped quickly, losing their last 9 games and conceding an average of 39 points per game.
It is a new era in the Hunter in 2025 with Justin Holbrook taking over from Adam Elliot and in the same swoop the Knights have brought in some more attacking flair in the halves with Dylan Brown coming in as the highest paid player in the game.
Newcastle have also added depth in the halves with Sandon Smith coming over from the Roosters.
Newcastle Knights Team News
The biggest surprise from the Knights team list is that Fletcher Sharpe will start in the No. 6 beside new recruit Dylan Brown who will play out of position at halfback after being the five-eighth at Parramatta for so long.
Sandon Smith will start off the bench as the utility. Jermaine McEwen has taken a spot in the starting side on the edge with Thamoas Cant coming off the pine.
Newcastle Knights Team List
1. Kalyn Ponga (c)
2. Dominic Young
3. Dane Gagai
4. Bradman Best
5. Greg Marzhew
6. Fletcher Sharpe
7. Dylan Brown
8. Jacob Saifiti
9. Phoenix Crossland
10. Trey Mooney
11. Dylan Lucas
12. Jermaine McEwen
13. Tyson Frizell
Interchange
14. Sandon Smith
15. Mat Croker
16. Thomas Cant
17. Pasami Saulo
Reserves
18. Fletcher Hunt
19. Francis Manuleleua
20. Tyson Gamble
21. Cody Hopwood
22. Jame Schiller
North Queensland Cowboys To Bounce Back From 2025 Disappointment
The Cowboys were arguably the most disappointing team in the NRL last season, failing to fire and finishing with just nine wins.
The narrative was that they had a side that could beat anyone, especially with the attacking flair of Scott Drinkwater behind the game management of Tom Dearden, however, the Cows would simply switch off 20 minutes and let their opposition take over.
Todd Payton will be in the fire line if the Cowboys do not get off the line early in 2026. There has been very little movement in his squad, besides the exchange of Reece Robson for Reed Mahoney at hooker.
In the successful years of Payton’s tenure the Cowboys were a defensive beast, however, last season they ranked 16th in the league in opposition points (28.5/G) bleeding territory with an average of 32 tackles per game inside their own 20m line on the back of an average of 6.3 opposition linebreaks per game.
North Queensland Cowboys Team News
Reed Mahoney comes in from the Bulldogs taking his familiar No. 9 jersey in a point-to-prove season after being discarded by Canterbury. Soni Luke will start off the bench as the utility.
Many assumed Jaxon Purdue would start in the halves, however he takes a place in the centres with Jake Clifford playing alongside Tom Dearden.
North Queensland Cowboys Team List
1. Scott Drinkwater
2. Braidon Burns
3. Jaxon Purdue
4. Tom Chester
5. Murray Taulagi
6. Jake Clifford
7. Tom Dearden (c)
8. Coen Hess
9. Reed Mahoney
10. Jason Taumalolo
11. Heilum Luki
12. Sam McIntyre
13. Reuben Cotter (c)
Interchange
14. Soni Luke
15. Thomas Mikaele
16. Harrison Edwards
17. Kai O'Donnell
Reserves
18. Griffin Neame
19. John Bateman
20. Liam Sutton
21. Matthew Lodge
22. Robert Derby
Verdict
The Cowboys are tipped to cover as the 4.5 point favourite in a match that stays under 42.5 points. Jaxson Purdue will score a try for the Cowboys.
North Queensland -4.5
Handicap/Line
@20/21 - 3 Units
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Under 42.5
Game Total
@15/16 - 1 Unit
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Jaxon Purdue
Anytime Tryscorer
@6/4 - 1 Unit
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Jaxon Purdue
First Tryscorer
@11/1 - 1 Unit
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