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Women's State of Origin Game 3 Betting Tips & Preview - Queensland to be competitive in dead rubber

jeremy-darke
Editor
Last updated: Mon 25 May 2026 09:04
Despite losing the first two games of the 2026 Women’s State of Origin, QLD Maroons Women have been highly competitive and look set to stay within the +9.5 handicap for Game 3, even after key injuries and team changes. Expect another tight, low-scoring contest, continuing the strong under 35.5 points trend that has seen seven of the last nine matches stay below this total. NSW Blues Women’s defense has dominated, and Jessica Sergis remains a significant try-scoring threat, having crossed four times in her last five games.
Jeremy Darke 25 May 2026
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  • QLD tipped to cover the +9.5 line despite key injuries.
  • Estimated low-scoring game: under 35.5 points is the betting trend.
  • Jessica Sergis likely to continue her try-scoring streak for NSW.
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Women's State of Origin Game 3 to lack points (Getty Images)

QLD Maroons vs NSW Blues Women Game 3 Preview


New South Wales have won the series but might not have it all their own way in Game 3. With under 35.5 points predicted in the game, I'm backing Queensland to stay within the +9.5 handicap in a tight contest with few tries. 

  • Queensland have lost both games this series by 5 points or fewer.
  • Seven of the last nine Women’s Origin matches have gone under 35.5 points.
  • NSW have conceded just 16 total points across the series
  • NSW have scored 3 of their 5 tries on right side of their attack. 

Head to Head 


NSW lead the all-time Women’s Origin rivalry 11-6 and have won four of the last five meetings.

The Blues secured the 2026 series with victories of 11-6 and 14-10 in the opening two games.

QLD Maroons Women Form - Performances Better Than Results


Queensland’s performances have been far better than their results suggest. The Maroons have consistently matched NSW physically but have continually hurt themselves through handling errors and poor discipline.

In Game 2, Queensland completed at just 57 per cent and made 16 errors, yet still nearly forced extra time in the dying moments.

Young players like Rory Owen and Chantay Kiria-Ratu have impressed throughout the series, while Keilee Joseph and Otesa Pule continue to provide strong middle-third impact.

QLD Maroons Team News & Team List


Queensland have been forced into several major changes for Game 3 following injuries suffered in Brisbane.

Captain Tamika Upton, star winger Julia Robinson and forward Makenzie Weale have all been ruled out after picking up injuries during the Game 2 loss at Suncorp Stadium.

Their absences have opened the door for a new-look Maroons side featuring fresh young talent, with Destiny Mino-Sinapati and Lillian Yarrow both set to make their Women’s State of Origin debuts.

1. Destiny Mino-Sinapati
2. Shenae Ciesiolka
3. Rory Owen
4. Ivana Lolesio
5. Jasmine Peters
6. Chantay Kiria-Ratu
7. Lauren Brown (c)
8. Otesa Pule
9. Destiny Brill
10. Jessika Elliston
11. Sienna Lofipo
12. Romy Teitzel
13. Keilee Joseph

Interchange
14. Emma Manzelmann
15. Brianna Clark
16. Lillian Yarrow
17. Jada Ferguson

Reserves
18. Chelsea Lenarduzzi
19. Sophie Holyman
20. Georgia Ravics

NSW Blues Women Form - Series Secured


NSW’s defence has been the defining factor of the series.

The Blues have conceded just 16 total points across two games and continue to deliver in clutch moments, with Jesse Southwell and Teagan Berry producing crucial try-saving plays in Brisbane.

Southwell has controlled the series brilliantly from halfback and remains the key figure in NSW’s attack.

NSW Blues Women Team News & Team List


NSW have retained the same 20-player squad that secured the series victory in Brisbane, with only minor positional reshuffles ahead of Game 3 on the Gold Coast.

Olivia Higgins moves into the starting hooker role after wearing jersey No.14 in Game 2, while Keeley Nizza shifts back to the interchange bench despite scoring a crucial try at Suncorp Stadium.

1. Abbi Church
2. Jaime Chapman
3. Jessica Sergis
4. Isabelle Kelly (c)
5. Jayme Fressard
6. Jocelyn Kelleher
7. Jesse Southwell
8. Millie Elliott
9. Olivia Higgins
10. Ellie Johnston
11. Kezie Apps
12. Yasmin Meakes
13. Olivia Kernick

Interchange
14. Keeley Nizza
15. Kennedy Cherrington
16. Rima Butler
17. Teagan Berry

Reserves
18. Quincy Dodd
19. Corban Baxter
20. Hannah Southwell

Verdict

QLD’s young squad can keep the Maroons in the contest and cover in another low scoring match. Jessica Sergis will score for the third time this series.

Best Bet1: Queensland +9.5 Handicap/Line @10/11 at Hollywood bets - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Under 35.5 Game Total @10/11 at bet365 - 3 Units
Best Bet3: Jessica Sergis Anytime Tryscorer @7/5 at Star Sports - 2 Units
Best Bet4: Jessica Sergis First Tryscorer @8/1 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
Queensland +9.5
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Under 35.5
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Bet at bet365
Jessica Sergis
Anytime Tryscorer
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Jessica Sergis
First Tryscorer
@8/1 - 1 Unit
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